Average Joe

Joe Biden is an average politician, both literally and, as he would say, literally.

The president has been “average” in the sense that his gifts are about those of the median politician and his career, including his presidency, has been very middle-of-the-pack kind of stuff. Whether he wins or loses this fall, it’s easy to see his legacy as being an ordinary, workmanlike figure in politics. He will reside with Gerald Ford, Harry Truman, Jimmy Carter, Rutherford Hayes, and others of whom history will say: He did his best in a difficult time.

That median kind of averageness has actually been the key to Biden’s long and, eventually, successful career. Whenever his name was raised, there rang out a trumpeted call: “Sure. Why not?” A Democrat, but a Delaware kind of business-friendly one. Tough on crime, but with a particular focus on female victims. Passionate about foreign policy, but always in a “let’s get everybody together in a room and chew this over” kind of way. Basically John Kerry but without the yacht-induced lockjaw.

And that’s the kind of averageness that Washington loves. That’s the kind of median mediocrity that will get a guy the vice presidency. And then, when the Republican Party lost its mind and Democrats, hollowed out by 12 years of the Obama-Clinton game of thrones, were about to lose theirs and nominate an honest-to-goodness socialist, the presidency drifted down into the very average hands of Biden. Being unremarkable suddenly became a most remarkable attribute indeed.

But Biden is average in a different sense, too. He is a moderate, but only in the mean average. If you add up his decisions and policies and divide by the number of items, you get something in the middle. 

This is what I call the “bad umpire” approach. If you blow a call against one team, you make it up by making a bad call against the other side. Maybe you win the crowd back a little, but eventually the conclusion from both teams is that they’d rather have predictability and consistency, even if it generally goes against their side.

How else could a Democratic president be subject to these two accurate headlines on the same day: “Inside Biden’s Broken Relationship With Muslim and Arab American Leaders” and “Biden’s Israel threat slammed by pro-Israel lawmakers, mainstream Jewish groups.” 

Woof.

Political triangulation means staking out a policy position that is equidistant from two extremes. But this idea is predicated on the often correct view that voters tend to bunch up in the middle. That’s where you get “compassionate conservative” and “new Democrat.” The message is that these politicians aren’t like the old guys. They’re delightfully squidgy! Taking a little from column A and column B, they’re giving you, they say, the best of both sides. Whether it actually works or not, it sounds very appealing. And it has the benefit of being, itself, a coherent worldview: a median approach in pursuit of the median voter.

But you can’t get there by adding and dividing. Let’s say, for example, your administration had a plan last week to halt some weapons systems to Israel. That’s a nod to the small but very vocal hardline opponents of Israel’s war on Hamas, including many in the Arab American community in swing state Michigan. But putting a kink in the hose is going to profoundly upset the supporters of the Jewish state, which happens to include something like 90 percent of Jewish voters, including  many voters in the even bigger, even swingier swing state of Pennsylvania.

So what’s the way to try to average that out? On Tuesday, you finally accede to the demands of pro-Israel voters who have been lambasting you for failing to denounce the rank antisemitism that has marked so much of the anti-Israel protests. On Wednesday, you put the kink in the hose to answer the demands of the anti-Israel set. And on average, nobody is happy.

In the news business we like to say that if both sides are mad at you, you must be doing something right. That doesn’t apply to politics. The old saw goes that “to govern is to choose.” And in choosing policies, politicians choose for and against groups of voters. But by metronomically ticking back and forth between sides, it is possible to choose against both.  

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STATSHOT

Biden Job Performance
Average approval: 39.0%
Average disapproval: 57.0%
Net score: -18.0 points 

Change from one week ago: ↓ 1.6 points

Change from one month ago: ↓ 1.4 points

[Average includes: ABC/Ipsos: 35% approve-57% disapprove; CNN: 41% approve-59% disapprove; Quinnipiac: 35% approve-61% disapprove; Monmouth: 42% approve-55% disapprove; NPR/PBS/Marist: 42% approve-53% disapprove]

Polling Roulette

[Pew Research Center poll of U.S. adults, April 2024]

TIME OUT: GROSS, DUDE 

The New Yorker: “After thirteen, or maybe seventeen, years of subterranean night, they will, finally, dig toward the air. When they surface, they are pale nymphs and they climb their home trees. … And there are so many of them! For some people, the whole romantic cycle is, understandably, a nightmare: billions of toe-sized insects, as many as a million per acre, on lawns and on wooden fences and on your pants. They evince no fear; their pace is that of zombies. … The time of the periodical cicadas is nigh. Again. This year, two broods will emerge simultaneously. … Many animals are pleased with the abundance of periodical cicadas—as a meal. … In 1715, the Philadelphia-based Lutheran pastor Andreas Sandel noted, of a cicada emergence, ‘Swine and poultry ate them, but what was more astonishing, when they first appeared some of the people split them open and eat them, holding them to be of the same kind as those said to have been eaten by John the Baptist.’ The taste of cicada when they are still pale is described by Cicada Safari as being like ‘cold canned asparagus.’”

VP LIST GROWS AFTER MAR-A-LAGO AUDITIONS

Politico: “The jockeying to be Trump’s No. 2 is ramping up. This past Sunday, a handful of vice presidential contenders, including Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, and New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, fanned out on television programs. Each received strong reviews from the former president’s team. … And next week, Sen. J.D. Vance will be hosting a high-dollar fundraiser for Trump in Cincinnati. … Trump’s team has begun vetting would-be candidates, as is typical in vice presidential searches. The list of those under consideration is long, according to two people familiar with the process who were granted anonymity to speak freely. Trump, they say, has been adding names to the roster. … [Sunday’s conference at Mar-a-Lago] represented the latest in a series of de-facto tryouts for the contenders to prove their political chops.”

Surrogate Scott courts Trump-hesitant donors: New York Times: “Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, one of the top contenders to become Donald J. Trump’s running mate, will host a gathering in Washington next month featuring Republican donors who so far remain publicly uncommitted to the party’s presidential ticket. … A financial show of force for Mr. Scott’s group could lift his chances of being selected by Mr. Trump. … For Mr. Scott, the event may help signal that he is a more palatable political figure for centrist donors and that adding him to the ticket could expand the network of financial resources Mr. Trump could tap into this year. … Mr. Trump has become increasingly worried about a range of money problems. … The former president has responded by leaning into his own fund-raising efforts.” 

Two months after dropping out, Haley pulls 22% in Indiana: Politico: “On Tuesday night, even though Trump won all of the state’s 58 delegates, Nikki Haley posted above-30-point performances in places like Marion County, home to Indianapolis, and affluent Hamilton County, its suburb to the north. This is where Biden grew Democratic margins in 2020, and where Indiana Democrats have been targeting for years. And it’s the same kind of place where Trump has been weak throughout the 2024 GOP primary in other states. While virtually no one doubts Indiana will be in the Trump column come November, Tuesday’s results show a durable coalition for Haley. … In fact, Haley was on track to score more votes than the second-place finisher in the $40 million GOP gubernatorial contest, Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, winning more than 100,000 votes. … Haley’s totals may have been boosted by voters outside the GOP base participating in the primary.”

BIDEN RAMPS UP SPENDING

Politico: “Joe Biden’s campaign is dropping another multi-million dollar ad campaign this month and building out its infrastructure in battleground states. … The president’s team announced on Wednesday that it would be making an additional $14 million in ad spending for May. It will also be hiring more staff — bringing its total to 500 — and open its 200th office by the end of the month. … All told, the announcements, coming six months out from Election Day, signal that the Biden team is still banking on a traditional campaign strategy of trying to reach voters through a physical footprint and television ads. … Aides to the Biden campaign said it will spend at least $1 million of its $14 million ad campaign on Black and Latino media, as well as Asian-American and Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islanders. … National Democrats are hopeful that the money will help reengage constituencies that seem unenthused about the reelection or unconvinced.”

Gaza protests threaten to derail Chicago DNC: Wall Street Journal: “Democrats are bracing for the prospect of waves of protests seeking to disrupt the party’s August convention in Chicago, a spectacle that could damage President Biden’s re-election bid and the start of his fall campaign. … Pro-Palestinian groups have vowed to stage mass demonstrations outside the main convention site, with or without a permit. … Protests outside the convention aren’t new—supporters of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’s presidential bid demonstrated outside the 2016 convention in Philadelphia and staged a walkout on the floor. … A host-committee official familiar with fundraising said no corporate donors have to date withdrawn support from the Democratic convention because of protest-related concerns. … Democrats are seeking to raise about $90 million for the convention.”

CRUZ TRIES MODERATION TO WIN BACK SUBURBAN APPEAL

Wall Street Journal: “[Sen. Ted Cruz] voted against the infrastructure law, the Chips Act and the recent Ukraine-Israel aid package. … On his popular podcast, he regularly rips into Democrats. … Yet here in a community clubhouse northwest of Houston, Cruz is rolling out a softer, bipartisan side to try to appeal to independents and Democrats as he faces a competitive challenger this fall in the red-leaning state. His so-called Cul-de-Sac Tour, with 10 planned stops in suburban communities, aims to recast his image as a dealmaking lawmaker. … Democrats, who have long used Cruz as a hyperpartisan punchline, say the new pitch won’t work. ‘I think Ted Cruz isn’t fooling anyone. I think Texans know exactly who he is,’ said [Democratic opponent Colin Allred]. … Allred’s campaign ended March with $10.5 million in the bank, compared with $9.4 million for Cruz.” 

MAGA man Jim Banks set to replace Braun in safely red Indiana: IndyStar: “Indianapolis psychologist Valerie McCray is the Democratic nominee to fill one of Indiana’s U.S. Senate seats. … The Republican nomination was assured for lone candidate U.S. Rep. Jim Banks. McCray will face Banks and Libertarian Andrew Horning in the general election for the seat that Sen. Mike Braun vacated to run for governor. … Banks has a sizeable war chest worth more than $4.7 million, plus endorsements from former President Donald Trump and conservative fundraising powerhouse Club for Growth.”

Poll: Baldwin up double-digits over Hovde in Wisconsin Senate race The Hill: “The survey, released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University, shows [incumbent Democratic] Sen. Tammy Baldwin bringing in 54 percent support among surveyed Wisconsin voters to Eric Hovde’s 42 percent. While each candidate takes nearly all of their own parties’ votes, independents also backed Baldwin by a 12-point margin. … The numbers come as Hovde’s campaign has been dogged by scandal, with Democrats attacking the business leader for spending much of his adult life out of state and voting absentee from California as recently as this year. … Name recognition could also be a factor for Hovde, with half of poll respondents saying they don’t know enough about him to have an opinion. … Both candidates raised nearly $10 million between their campaigns and principal committees, though Hovde put in $8 million of his own money for the cause. The businessman has suggested he could put as much as $20 million of his own funds.”

BRIEFLY

GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse, who voted to impeach Trump, draws primary challenge—Seattle Times

GOP nominates deceased woman for Indianapolis House seat—Washington Examiner

After unretiring, Rep. Victoria Spartz narrowly survives primary—IndyStar

WITHIN EARSHOT: SK8ER BOI 

“It’s upcycling!”—Republican Tennessee Rep.. Tim Burchett makes the progressive case for his homemade bamboo skateboard in a conversation with friend and colleague Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. 

MAILBAG

“After reading your article … I noticed some districts that appear to be swing districts, but are rated as having nearly or completely safe seats; for example, AZ-4 (Stanton-D), FL-27 (Salazar-R), FL-28 (Gimenez-R).  Some seats, like TX-34 (Gonzalez-D), FL-9 (Soto-D), and SC-1 (Mace-R), would seem to be safe due to a more extreme PVI , but are rated as only likely Democratic or Republican. And a few seats that would seem to be somewhat in play are represented by strongly partisan representatives, Like PA-10 (Perry-R) and AZ-2 (Crane-R).  Do you have any unifying theories here?”—Doug Berman, West Jordan, Utah

Mr. Berman,

The composition of the House is relatively easy to forecast as a whole, but devilishly difficult in specific cases. We know that there will be a strong correlation between how the national popular vote for president goes and the composition of the House. Because of the urban-rural split in partisan affiliation, Republicans have something of a built-in advantage, partly since their voters tend to be more spread out compared to the Democrats in densely populated areas, but we know that within that limitation, there will be a rhythm to the election overall.

But for a few dozen districts, like some of those you mentioned, things are still wonderfully weird. The weirdness matters more when we have, as has been the case for several cycles, very narrow majorities in Congress.

Some things to remember:

The Cook Partisan Voting Index is backward-looking—a lagging indicator of a district’s partisanship. Once calculated as a 50/50 average of the past two presidential elections, the metric was adjusted in 2022 to 25/75 to keep the ratings a bit fresher

Even with the new method, PVI ratings can be outdated for districts that have had some of the biggest swings over the last elections. Your mentions of Florida’s 27th and 28th districts are great examples. Both are heavily Hispanic South Florida districts and Hillary Clinton did quite well there, but Biden collapsed in 2020.

• FL-27: Clinton +17.2 —> Trump +0.3
• FL-28: Clinton +15.5 —> Trump +6.2

The seats aren’t in play in 2024, but Clinton’s performance eight years ago throws off the average. 

SC-1 goes the other way—a once very conservative district in and around Charleston is swinging to the left so PVI isn’t perfectly representative of the current lean. Mace’s ~confusing~ relationship with Trump further complicates things in the district (Trump +14.7 in 2016 —> Trump +8.6 in 2020).

I hope you’ll pardon our little detour into the weeds, but while Nate and I will keep an eye on specific race ratings, I think for now it’s best for non-nerds to think about the House as a whole, which you can follow here. Just bear in mind the GOP’s structural advantage. Democrats need to lead in the generic ballot by a couple of points just for the race to be a tie.

All best,

c 

“I’ve heard you mention Charles McCarry’s Shelley’s Heart as a favorite of yours. Can you elaborate? That and The Better Angels feel eerily prophetic. McCarry was one of a kind.”—Andrew Beardslee, Grand Ledge, Michigan

Mr. Beardslee,

Always good to meet another McCarry fan!

For the uninitiated, McCarry was a journalist-turned-speechwriter-turned-CIA agent-turned-novelist who saw great commercial success from the 1970s to the 1990s with his secret agent series about the fictional spy Paul Christopher. It was all good stuff, with lots of murder, sex, betrayal, etc. And McCarry’s eye for culture, history, and, of course, delicious food, makes it delightful reading.

He had a couple of more books in the Christopher series after Shelley’s Heart, which came out in 1995, but it was really the culmination of the story arc that went back to the Vietnam era.

Here’s the funny thing: I didn’t know any of that when I first read Shelley’s Heart 15 years ago on the recommendation of a friend. The book absolutely blew me away for its insight into how politics was changing in the post-morality and digital era. I didn’t know or care anything about the characters he had spent the previous seven books crafting and fretting over.

It was several years before I found the rest of the series, which I happily, greedily consumed. But none were the equal to that one for me, even upon rereading in context. Perhaps because it was so much about Washington and politics, or, perhaps, McCarry was done playing around with Chrtistopher’s own story and had something to get off his own chest.

Whatever the case, it ranks for me up with All the King’s Men and The Gay Place for great 20th century political fiction.

Thanks for letting me reminisce!

All best,

c  

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CUTLINE CONTEST:  ‘ARE YOU STILL WATCHING?’

One of my core beliefs about the Cutline Contest is that boring pictures produce the best results, and this week is absolutely proof of concept: 

“This one has Netflix!”—Michael Smith, Georgetown, Kentucky

Winner, Wild Zebra Division: 

“After review, the decision on the field stands: It is still the same crummy candidates.”—Allan Hardcastle, Lincoln, California

Winner, Well Fluffed Division: 

“Mike Lindell monitors voting from behind a medicine cabinet in Nashville.”—Linda McKee, DuBois, Pennsylvania

Winner, Hello Hugo Division: 

“Hey, does anybody know the country code for Venezuela?”—Steve McCardell, Redding, Connecticut

Winner, Cruel and Unusual Division: 

“Oklahoma Replaces Death Penalty with Repetitive Presidential Voting”—Michael Johnson, Winston-Salem, North Carolina

Winner, What the Flip Division: 

“Wow … what are the odds that all three of us got tails?”—Jeff Tatusko, Plum, Pennsylvania

Winner Tah-Dah Division:

“In response to scattered requests for an encore, the Doom Chamber gets a quick staff inspection before illusionists Demos and Maga re-perform Sawing the Body Politic in Half.”—Bill Ward, St. Augustine Beach, Florida

Winner, Hit or Miss Division: 

“The U. S. Navy tests its ‘Three-Way Battleship’ recruiting tool with area parents”—Daniel Summers, Knoxville, Tennessee

Winner, Many a Truth Was Said in Jest Division:

“Follow the instructions and use the keypad to select ‘Write-in.’”—Dave Rae, Aberdeen, Maryland

HEY-EY-EY A-WHAT’S GOING ON?

Columbus Dispatch: “Ohio State’s chosen commencement speaker for the class of 2024, entrepreneur Chris Pan, was high on ayahuasca while he wrote his speech. … ‘Got some help from AI (Ayahuasca Intelligence) this week to write my commencement speech for 60k grads and family members’ he wrote in a LinkedIn post before graduation. Pan also said he tried using ChatGPT. … In the weeks preceding graduation, Pan shared multiple drafts of his speech on Instagram. His earliest posted draft included a lengthy section about the Israel-Palestine conflict and a moment where he removed his shirt. … Pan also led the crowd through two brief musical numbers — ‘What’s Going On?’ by the 4 Non Blondes and ‘This Little Light of Mine’ by Harry Dixon Loes — and espoused how he thinks Bitcoin is ‘a very misunderstood asset class,’ which was met by groans from audience members.”

Nate Moore contributed to this report.