A New NATO Heavyweight?

Poland’s importance in the alliance has grown as it increased military spending and deepened ties to neighboring Ukraine.

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WARSAW—Before Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine this February, Vladimir Putin demanded that NATO troops withdraw from Poland and the Baltic states. This extortion attempt has gone as well as the broader invasion: NATO states responded by rushing troops and equipment eastward while making major military spending commitments.

“We understand our geostrategic location,” Gen. Rajmund Andrzejczak, chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, said at the Warsaw Security Forum this week. “We have no time and no space. We are frontline.”

Poland, a country of 38 million, shares borders with Russia and the Russian vassal Belarus, along with Ukraine. The former Soviet satellite state, which joined NATO in 1999, serves as a staging area for Western support to Kyiv. Poland also houses some 2 million Ukrainian refugees.

Polish officials, along with their Baltic neighbors, have long argued that Russia’s imperial ambitions extend far beyond Ukraine. For years many Western European leaders dismissed such warnings as alarmist. The invasion changed everything. 

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  1. Avatar photo
    James Clarke

    Korea builds tanks?

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      Jerogers86

      Yeah, pretty decent ones actually. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K2_Black_Panther

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    Cyprian

    Very nice article Charlotte. I for one welcome this role for Poland. They are students of history and realize that living next door to Russia means that it's only a matter of time before they come calling. Poland will be ready. With the training that they have received along with advanced weaponry, they are an extremely capable force. I believe that they could, with Ukraine's help, kick Russia out of Ukraine completely. Of course, no one (save Ukraine) wants a NATO member to have boots on the ground in any kinetic activity. At least not yet. Cook off a nuke Vlad, and all bets are off.

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    Robjab

    Great article! I look forward to more on this topic!

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  4. Vmbarkoff

    Great article and analysis.

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    Adam Trainer

    Thanks Charlotte

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  6. Nathan Briggs

    Hmm. By 2030 could center of gravity shift from Germany, France and Italy to Poland, Finland, Baltics and Sweden. Finland and Sweden already have huge armies and Sweden a highly developed arms mfg capacity. USA of course must stay in and provide most financial and material support.

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    Taylor L

    Terrific article. Concise, informative, and expands the lens on a consequential world event. Thank you, Charlotte.

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  8. linda

    If America got into a serious war who would you rather have at our side, France and Germany or Poland and Ukraine?

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    1. Duane Truitt

      All of the above and dozens of others.

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    2. JayGeeAitch

      Depends on the nature of the conflict. For ground pounding, Ukraine and Poland, for force projection, France and Germany, with their carrier and nuclear submarine fleet, and Air Force.

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        CynthiaW

        A better question is, "Who would be at our side?"

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  9. Seth Halpern

    Unfortunately, Poland is also turning increasingly authoritarian. https://fee.org/articles/poland-semi-authoritarian-slide-is-a-wake-up-call-for-europe/

    Of course there's no contradiction between being nationalistic and being semi fascist. Poland before WW2 was a quasi dictatorship which even swallowed a chunk of Czechoslovakia after the Munich Accords. (They've apologized... for the time being. https://www.expatica.com/be/general/poland-says-role-in-czechoslovakias-annexation-a-sin-74925/)

    Nor is there a necessary contradiction between opposing dictatorships and supporting one, viz. our alliance with the Soviet Union against Hitler.

    Somebody once said that "nations have no permanent friends and no permanent enemies, only permanent interests."

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    1. Brendan Bossard

      What does Poland's authoritarianism have to do with the article?

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    2. Randall Briggs

      Re the quote at the end of your post, it is from Lord Palmerston, two-time prime minister of the U.K.

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  10. Halvor

    If Russia gets to keep Crimea it must cede Königsberg (aka Kaliningrad) to Poland in recognition of war debts, both past and present, and to remove a threat of future Russian trespass across Polish territory. This is apart from reparations to Ukraine, obviously. Also, the siloviki must deliver V. Putin naked to Maidan Nezalezhnosti for transfer by Ukraine to The Hague.


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    1. Duane Truitt

      Russia won’t get to keep any of Ukraine. Indeed Russia’s obvious weakness and failure is likely now to sunder the Russian Federation. Who wants to ally themselves with an obvious loser?

      That’s what happened in 1991 - after the Soviets lost control of Eastern Europe, the Soviet Union quickly disintegrated and disappeared.

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      Pat Riot

      It looks like Ukraine may will kick Russia out of Crimea too though.

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      1. Halvor

        Astounding. When Ukraine retakes Kherson and cuts off the North Crimean Canal again, Russians in Crimea may not want to stay.

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