Democratic Divergence in the Old Obama Coalition

In this year’s midterms, Democrats held their own in North Carolina but got clobbered in Florida.

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People watch a television screen showing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis beating his Democratic challenger Charlie Crist during an Election Night event at Mar-a-Lago. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

North Carolina and Florida once were key parts of the “Obama Coalition” that spurred new optimism for Democrats following the Bush years. Both have skewed red over the last 15 years, but in this year’s midterms, Democrats got blasted in Florida while putting up a respectable fight in North Carolina.

Why have these two southeastern states taken such different paths?

What Happened in North Carolina

Relative to expectations, November 8 turned out to be a decent night for North Carolina Democrats. Although they lost the vast majority of contested judicial elections in the state, they denied the GOP a veto-proof supermajority by one seat in the state legislature and kept the U.S. Senate race between Rep. Ted Budd and former state Supreme Court justice Cheri Beasley respectably close. Budd ultimately won by less than 4 points. And under the new (court-drawn) redistricting map, Republicans and Democrats split the state’s 14 House seats.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    Good article, Price.

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  2. Petera

    There is something odd about an article titled, "Democratic Divergence in the Old Obama Coalition". Old Obama coalition?? Obama left office less than six years ago. He won re-election just a decade ago. That's the "old" coalition? Then I look at the photo of the author, and he looks like he's 25 years old. Sorry, Price - it's ageist of me to be guessing your age. But it's just weird to be talking about two presidents ago as "old". The FDR coalition is old. Obama was yesterday.

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  3. Avatar photo
    Azlefty

    My own Jewish grandparents never moved to Florida, but many of their siblings and cousins did. Many of this Greatest Generation of Jews retired to Florida from the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest in the 1960s to the 1990s. For those of you unfamiliar, think Helen and Morty Seinfeld. They had mostly reliably voted Democratic since casting their first ballots for Roosevelt or Truman. In the last 20 years or so, they have mostly passed away.

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  4. Halvor

    Contrary to received opinion, it does not appear to be true that Democrats are particularly power-hungry.

    Perhaps apathy isn’t a final explanation. If I were a Democrat in Florida, I’d leave. If you’re MAGA and not more than 9’ above sea level, just vote for DeSantis and fix another drink.

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    1. CB76

      "If I were a Democrat in Florida, I’d leave."

      You say that like the only concern anybody has regarding where they live is what the state wide politics are like.

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      1. Halvor

        Unfortunately, I say that as someone who is concerned about family members, young and old, who have been moving to the SW coast. One lives 9' above SL, the other is on the water. Since they're Republicans, they don't worry about global warming and have some sort of homeowner's coverage through Noah's Covenant, as they only suffered yard damage from Ian. I'd get my house washed away.

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  5. BSamuel

    I think NC Dems might be a little too excited about their prospects in the growing metro areas, which are vast, but that doesn't mean you can totally pull up stakes in rural communities and afford to lose by 50+ points there.

    Maybe in 20+ years the Raleigh and Charlotte areas will be so overwhelming they can afford to lose the rural areas by 90 points and still win, but until then...

    Keep an eye on the 2024 Republican gubernatorial primary to see which way the GOP base in NC is leaning.

    At least we got Mayor Baldwin back to keep the Raleigh NIMBYs in check.

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  6. Jim S

    As a third generation Floridian I’d say that the crazier the GOP gets, the bigger the Florida margins will be.

    Florida is certifiably ‘weird’.

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  7. Kittyecws

    North Carolina has a pretty even distribution of party registrations and an increasing number of unaffiliated voters. Since Trump, I’d say the unaffiliated vote leans more toward Democrats than Republicans. I voted for some Republicans in local races but voted Dem in statewide races. If Richard Burr had run, despite his troubles with stock trading, I would have voted for him because he comported himself in a dignified manner in the Senate and worked across the aisle. I don’t know if others would have seen it that way. Our Republicans have become evermore extreme to the right, so I don’t know how that will play out in the future. I know I will never vote for the extremes on the right or the left. I’m pretty old school.

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