Dems’ Perilous Underestimation of Trump

He repels swing voters, but he isn’t unelectable.

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Donald Trump supporters hold flags near Trump's Mar-a-Lago home on April 1, 2023. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Republicans are very much struggling these days  to remember the lessons of the past three election cycles: 

In 2018, the party saw its worst midterm shellacking since the post-Watergate massacre of 1974. 

In 2020, Donald Trump joined Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush to become only the fourth president in a century not to win re-election.

In 2022 Republicans had the party’s weakest midterm showing against a first-term Democratic president since JFK 60 years prior.

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  1. Guycatelli1

    "I love the cause [populism] but hate the men [Caesar, Pompey, Marc Antony] ..... Caesar will be followed by all whose past life gives them reason to be afraid, or their future no reason to hope" (Caelius to Cicero, Fam 18.14.2)

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  2. James D

    I think many Dems absolutely know Trump can win again, which is why the Dems were the ones actually trying to get him convicted and barred from running again in 2021 while the GOP hemmed and hawed and found excuses not to do their manifest duty.

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    Bill Nelson

    When shove comes to push, those who think Biden is too old will settle for the presidency of the Chief of Staff, which is what we have had so far. In fact it will become a talking point about the presidential team.

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  4. Daniel.Rabiner

    I don't get this article. Democrats, at least the majority of the ones I've encountered know Trump can win. We remember 2016 and know how close he came in the electoral college even while losing the popular vote by 7 million.

    If only we put the onus on Republicans to make him unelectable by just voting for someone else in their own primary.

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      Kmregan7

      What?! Put the responsibility for voting for him on the the people who vote for the "party of personal responsibility!" No way. It's Dems, dontchaknow.....always Dems fault. /sarc...

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    2. Jack H Wolf

      I disagree.
      I blog on a mixed liberal/conservative site and at least in my experience there, Dems are predicting Joe will win. It is imo the naviety that b/c you assume that Trumps behavior is so over the top irrational that everybody sees this and will vote against him, this will naturally happen. It was this enthusiasm that held sway in 2016. Sure, people know he can win, the problem is they think they are likely to win where the current polls indicate he is likely to lose.
      The inability of Dems to realize that Biden is weak is what is behind the fact that nobody is challenging him other than the eccentrics. That calculation might be also that no challenger has unseated an incumbent president since at least 1930 (Reagan came close with Ford and Ted Kennedy with Carter).
      Trump is poised to win his primary. Nobody is close. Following nov. 2022 he dropped from 30 ahead to 20, but since April he is back to 30 and continues to gain ground.

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      1. Daniel.Rabiner

        That's kind of the point. Democrats may predict Biden will win, but I don't know of many who want it to be Biden v Trump because that still means Trump CAN win, even if he isn't the favorite (in our eyes).

        Biden may be weak in some respect, but every other Democrat who may run has constituency issues and doesn't want to be seen as weakening Biden further ahead of a possible Trump rematch. If Desantis was running away with it, I think there would be more activity on the Democratic side to challenge Biden.

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    DougAz

    Did I miss your recommended action for my Liberal Democrat side?

    Would replacing VP Harris with Governor Gretchen Whitmer get YOUR vote?

    Conservatives will ignore the backlash on Dobbs, obstinate anti gun regulation; SCOTUS, Texans and Florida Republicans legislative cruelty. At their peril

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    1. Jack H Wolf

      It is not about getting Democratic votes but Independents and swing voters. The problem with replacing Harris is that it would come with considerable blowback from progressives and blacks and if 2016 was a lesson, it is that the party cannot afford a fracture.

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        DougAz

        I agree it is about the independents and turnout of the core Democrats.

        My tribe is very fractured and factioned. Always has been and more so now. I see us not about preventing fracture but keeping the glues from drying out and getting brittle.

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        1. Jack H Wolf

          There is a progressive and moderate wing among Dems and it was precisely the divisions of 2016 where I saw my progressive cohorts attack, as they referred to her, $Shillary, and pretended that, but for the DNC, Sanders would have won, that imo was a key factor in Trumps victory in 2016. If anything united these two factions in 2020, it was a hatred of Trump.
          I expect that will still be in play in 2024 but Biden, in his efforts to shore up his left flank, has lost much of the Independents and swing voter support.
          I think the current immigrant crisis is an iceberg in his shipping lane and an issue where Dems are in the minority, so if he doesnt stem the border surgehe will be giving the Rs a big gift. He indicated that he was going tp process asylee claimants outside the country but if Dispatch is correct the flow over the border is commencing.

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            DougAz

            That's a good analysis.

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    2. Ingenero.lux

      Why is it his job to give recommendations? Trying to get someone to accept they have a problem is the first step after all.

      And putting the woman who famously forced stores to cordon off gardening supplies during the pandemic (https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicksibilla/2020/04/16/michigan-bans-many-stores-from-selling-seeds-home-gardening-supplies-calls-them-not-necessary/amp/) isn’t likely to make moderates and independents jump for joy. The attack ads write themselves.

      And Chris wasn’t simply laying into Democrats - he was warning them not to assume Trump couldn’t win. They made that assumption in 2016 without realizing that one of the very few people he could win against was Hillary Clinton. Biden won in 2020 but his margin wasn’t overwhelming, so assuming he’d win in a walk in not a great choice. And you also assume the country holds your priorities - yes, there is pushback on abortion, but that didn’t result in complete repudiation of Republicans in 2022 (primarily that the über-MAGA types lost “bigly” as Trump would say), we haven’t seen a backlash on firearms despite that backlash being a talking point for decades, and most people outside of Texas and Florida simply don’t care much about what the state legislatures do. As for SCOTUS - it’s a widespread media narrative today, but there’s no proof it will materialize into anything. All of which is to say - sure, I’d prefer the Republicans moderate on some of this (though you should realize your “yes, I want to take all your guns” stance isn’t going anywhere), but assuming that will result in Trump losing is silly. Especially as he moderates on abortion (he’s attacking Republicans on the issue from the left) and has never exactly been a gun guy. Don Jr. notwithstanding, Trump lived in famously gun-restrictive NYC for most of his life without a peep of complaint. Probably because he can and did hire professional armed security - and will again if he lives long enough to not receive Secret Service protection (which is not a threat or statement of intent - the man’s 76 and could easily die of natural causes before he doesn’t get that protection anymore).

      Don’t make the very mistake Christ is warning against in the comments section of this article. Please.

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        DougAz

        Good evening Ingenero !

        So, whatever I think and my vote for Biden is so far insignificant as to the Democrats election strategy, we'd be hard pressed to fins my influential molecule ! 😄

        I didn't say it was his, Chris's (you oopsied "Christ$..all good) job. I just asked for his solution. Lay out a problem, present a solution for consideration.

        Hillary was a bad candidate I agree. I think, well hope, the Dems take no one for granted. We're a chaotic, overly complex, unfocused group. We are weaker competitively vs Republicans who have for a long time smartly simplified their raison détre to God, Guns and Glory. I envy that.

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        1. Ingenero.lux

          A good evening to you, too! Hope it’s not quite scorching down in Arizona yet - while it doesn’t get quite that hot here, it’s much closer than you’d probably expect (Large parts of Western Washington are literal deserts with temperatures to match), so I know how it goes.

          There isn’t a solution to the issue - there are dozens at least. All things considered, I suspect anything Chris suggested would be put in the bin of “things suggested by people Democrats are at the very least leery of”, so it might not help. If I had my druthers I’d recommend they start with someone younger (under 70) with a decent amount of political experience in at least one high profile job who would appeal to moderates and the base (Governors or Senators, maybe Cabinet Secretaries, someone who isn’t a high profile culture warrior or polarizing figure), then balance out the ticket with a sop to the base who wouldn’t totally set people’s hair on fire. Democrats being Democrats, someone like Gov. Evers of Wisconsin (ok, he’s 71, but close) or Gov. Edwards of Louisiana aren’t actually possibilities (straight white males are out unless they’re the former VP for Obama or the Bolshevik Muppet from Vermont), but I’d start with someone like one of them or like Gov. Polis from Colorado and add someone who ticks the necessary demographic boxes that VP Harris does (and which aren’t checked off by the actual nominee) but who also has more charisma than a punch in the face and is less polarizing (in tone and action if not in political position). Of course, while I’m at it I might as well ask for a pony, but you asked for proposed solutions, not possible ones.

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            DougAz

            It's 73 here now. We just had our 2nd outdoor propane grill meal. We haven't grilled much in 36 years. A few times in the early 80s with charcoal. The irony being my wife's father was a propane installer going back to the 30s.

            If I had Harry Potter's wand, I'd put Gretchen Whitmer in as VP. I like Governors with their administration experience. Much more than Senators. A few other Dem governors would be on the list like Polis.

            Appreciate your ideas!

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  6. Raincheck

    If Biden had the cojones to replace Harris with a solid, moderately liberal Democrat, he would have an easier path to reelection. Kamala Harris amplifies worries about Biden’s age instead of allaying them.

    Trump needs to be sent to Elba.

    There, I’ve fixed our politics,

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    1. Jack H Wolf

      I dont think it would b e easy because he couldnt without pissing off a significant percentage of his base, specifically blacks and progressives. It was clearly a mistake to have chosen her in the first place. He boxed himself in by limiting himself to black women though I think ex police chief Val Demings would have been better.
      It looks like the sequel nobody wants Trump/Biden 2. Maybe I will go to Elba.

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      SandyG

      Agree the low approval of Harris makes the issue of his age worse. In fact, you will see a lot of Rs taking advantage of this and attacking her more than him. But it's not a lack of cajones on his part. He is the leader of his party and Dem voters widely approve of Harris. That would cause a split in the party and the divided party, historically, loses. He's making a political calculation.

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        Bill Nelson

        “… Dem voters widely approve of Harris…”
        I thought her approval number was at 3. That’s total people.

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    Ajax81613

    Brain dead Biden or Trump? That’s an easy choice. Biden 2024! But I wish he would replace Harris with Buttigieg or Klobuchar.

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      BrandonAlleman

      My wish is for Klobuchar and others to challenge in the primary. I also want a pony or symbolic equivalent.

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    Ajax81613

    Amen brother.

    It’s too early to put much stock in one poll but Americans are exactly dumb enough and selfish enough to re-elect him. It’s tribe against tribe, screw the country and our children.

    When the obituary of the United States is written, Donald Trump will play a predominant role in that story, along with all of the Republican, elected officials, and people that voted for him.

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      SandyG

      Yes, but that history won't be allowed, at least not in the US. Only the rest of the Anglosphere.

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  9. Jim S

    “I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience."

    Plus ca change.

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      Asolovay

      Of course, Reagan was 73 when he made that quip to (then-56) Mondale.

      Next summer, Trump will be 78 and Biden 81.

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  10. InadvertantObfuscation

    It appears that we are in for another round of rank choice voting. (That is, the rank choices of Presidents Biden and Trump.)
    Do we have any hope to move towards rankED choice voting and the end of plurality-takes-all primaries? Then maybe sane voters could provide sane nominees?

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      SandyG

      I think it's too late to change Republican primaries. So, we do not have any hope.

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    2. MathewA

      The real problem is only 15-20% of voters vote in the primary. That means 3 to 4% of voters could determine the candidate for each party (even less with multiple candidates running).

      The non voting candidates need to get off their ass and do their civic duty

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      1. Ingenero.lux

        They have no real incentive to do so. Telling someone “it’s your civic duty to go out and vote for someone in an election on an unusual date, dominated by hardcore partisans, with a ton of people you’ve never heard of on the ballot, and with almost no likelihood you’ll make a difference” is an uphill climb. My state (Washington) both has open primaries AND vote by mail, and primary elections still have abysmal turnout - not quite as bad, but not to the point that the dynamics you point to are any different. Growling about people needing to “get off their ass” won’t change that - they’re making a rational choice because it would take a massive number of people making the opposite choice (something with a very low likelihood of happening) to make a difference. And even if they succeed once, they’d need to have everyone keep showing up, year after year, for it to really make any difference. It’s like an anti-lottery - you have to strike the jackpot for years in hopes of things maybe getting better. If, that is, either people on both sides of the aisle make the same choices (double jackpot), or voters in the main election reward the new breed of candidates (which is nowhere near a given either). It’s just not going to happen without some massive change.

        This is spoken as someone who’s cast plenty of votes even knowing darned well they won’t make a difference, or held my nose and voted in primaries for people I dislike but who I view as better candidates for higher office (not “I think my candidate can beat them more easily” better, “I think they’d do a better job even if I think they suck overall” better). But I also know the incentive structure is such that people won’t join me - and there’s not much we can do to change it.

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          SandyG

          Are the R presidential primaries open? If so, do they allocate the delegates proportionally (as Dem primaries do), or winner-take-all? The latter is the only way Trump wins the primaries with 30-40% of the vote.

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