Drones, Drones Everywhere

The Kadhimi assassination attempt shows that small drones in the hands of terrorists or insurgents pose a particularly nasty problem.

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Arriving at his villa in the al-Mintqa al-Khadraa, or Green Zone international district along the Tigris River on Sunday, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi was attacked by a “suicide quadcopter.” This was an improvised explosive device of a different and newly popular kind: a small, commercial-quality drone fitted with a cluster-bomb-like munition.

While most speculation about the thus-far anonymous attack has focused on the likely perpetrator—probably one of Iraq’s Iranian-backed militias collectively known as the Hashd al-Shaabi, or Popular Mobilization Forces—and the politics—Hashd candidates were drubbed in recent parliamentary elections, winning just 17 seats in the 329-member legislature—the biggest import of the moment might be military and strategic. The assassination attempt may have been less than a complete technical or tactical success, but it’s a harbinger of things to come, things to worry a lot about.

The details of the attack remain hazy, but the basic facts are clear. It was launched from somewhere near the Republic Bridge, about two miles upriver from the Green Zone as the crow flies. Two or perhaps three drones carrying small IEDs were used; all but one were shot down. David Hambling’s analysis in Forbes is insightful: The Green Zone is heavily defended, not least in regard to drone attacks, benefitting from “some of the U.S. military’s most advanced drone jamming hardware. …The fact that the attack drones apparently avoided jamming suggests they may have been on a pre-programmed flightpath with no direct link between drone and operator to jam.” 

The munitions on the downed drones failed to detonate, but they reveal a certain level of sophisticated fusing: when the bomb is released, it spins a propeller-like apparatus that arms the device, which explodes on impact. This is often loaded into a cuplike holder that is, in essence, “tipped over” to release the munition. The bombs themselves carried what is known as a “shaped charge,” designed to penetrate armor or other protection rather than simply scattering shrapnel. 

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    “ Political scientist Francis Fukuyama—himself an enthusiastic drone hobbyist”

    Not a sentence I expected to read.

    “ We must expect that the drone proliferation problem will have an American domestic dimension as well. At that moment, there are something like 1 million commercial-use drones registered with the FAA, and perhaps five times as many hobby drones. . The international drome market is estimated to be worth almost $20 billion now, and to double in size by 2027. There are almost certainly members of Antifa or Proud Boys who own quadcopters.”

    Wow. Even though I kept thinking about dudes messing around with quadcopters, I hadn’t made that connection until you pointed it out.

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  2. Token Liberal

    Great article. Also, it reminded me of the opening scene in Angel Has Fallen.

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    Robert Knudson

    This was eye opening - excellent reporting.

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  4. Richard Fulmer

    "[T]he Bayraktar family of drones, particularly the medium-altitude TB-2, [is] similar in size, endurance, and armament to the U.S. Predator, but at a cost of about $1.5 million compared to the $60-million-plus price tag of the American-made aircraft."

    Military strategists estimate that quantity outweighs quality in a mathematical square relationship. That is, for a single tank (say) to be tactically equivalent to two opposing tanks, it must be four times as good. For it to be equivalent to three opposing tanks, it must be nine times as good, and so on.

    For years, the U.S. military's technology was so superior to our that of our potential rivals' that we could defeat them despite their superior numbers. That is no longer the case. Unfortunately, our military is still hooked on very high-dollar equipment even though it's not sufficiently better than cheap munitions that can be assembled from off-the-shelf items.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Ben Connelly

      True. Depends on the technology we’re talking about. I’ll take 1 AC/130 against anything the Taliban could field circa 2020. You’re absolutely right though when it comes to aircraft carriers vs a fleet of distributed (perhaps robotic) ships with ship-killer missiles and especially if it’s inside a hostile A2AD envelope.

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      1. Richard Fulmer

        I would probably agree with you if I understood what you wrote.

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          Ben Connelly

          Haha okay. A2AD means Anti-Access Area Denial. Basically it’s what China has where they can sink anything inside a zone close to their coast using ground based missiles.

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    2. Boatbody

      Is our military still fighting Vietnam or WWII?

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      1. Richard Fulmer

        The war with Iraq.

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  5. Avatar photo
    Bill Nelson

    “… an America unhappily prone to political violence…”
    We are not. It has occurred in the past, but it is rare. There are a few crackpots certainly, but we are not “prone” to political violence, not totally immune but not prone.

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    1. Boatbody

      There is a company in Seattle (I think) developing drones the size of a bumble bee who are programed to attack soldiers in certain uniforms. They are dropped from high altitude aircraft and at ground level can zap into the helmet and a small explosive charge is set off. How do you keep that technology from being sold around the world? That's our future, friend.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Bill Nelson

        Remember the Tom Cruise movie Minority Report, with the spider like drones? The biggest danger is from governments doing surveillance.

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        1. Boatbody

          Governments with drones can do a lot more than surveil us.

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      2. Richard Fulmer

        Tie that technology to China's "social credit" system and its ability to locate people via facial recognition and you have a means of control beyond Orwell's worst nightmare.

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        1. Boatbody

          Yup. And we're running around the world concerned that John Kerry can lead us to climate change? That SOB called us Vietnam Vets "war criminals". He's an idiot. And he's leading our climate change efforts? No wonder the Chinese are laughing at us and keep building their coal fired plants.

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    2. Richard Fulmer

      The problem is that, as technology advances, one crackpot can do immeasurably more damage today than he could in years past.

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        Bill Nelson

        Yes they can. There is not a gun culture in Europe, except for Switzerland, because all of the various forms of states were ruled by an aristocracy, and peasants with guns kill kings. So guns were strongly discouraged.
        The drone still requires an explosive device. These are not are not impossible to get, but there is effort and there are consequences. Much is made of the Proud Boys, who are assuredly heavily armed, and probably could put together explosives. But they have done nothing because it is going to require personal sacrifice, and they do not appear to be willing to do this.

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        1. Boatbody

          See my note above. This sized drone is on YouTube.

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        2. Avatar photo
          DougAz

          Yet. Come to Arizona where criminals like Paul Gosar lead them on.

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          1. Boatbody

            Is the problem that AZ always gets the kind of government it deserves? I'm not for an oligarchy leading us -- but that's essentially what we get from both parties. Trump did it. Biden Did it. There's not much difference these days.

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            Bill Nelson

            As wrong as this is, Gosar is no more a criminal than Kathy Griffin. Now, given his position in Congress, he is much worse. Censure is a minimum, expulsion is my preference. But not criminal.

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  6. Avatar photo
    Victor Clairmont

    Every since the War on Terror started and drone warfare began, it probably was only a matter of time before the civilian use of small drones were harnessed by bad guys to do things like this.

    Might need to start having the no flys zones for drones that automatically will be terminated/shot down if seen.

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