France’s Fine Line for Achieving Peace in Ukraine

Emmanuel Macron sees himself as uniquely situated to end the war in Ukraine. But how much is the West willing to concede on Ukraine’s behalf?

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As Ukrainian soldiers and civilians were enduring their 100th day of brutal fighting against invading Russian troops, French President Emmanuel Macron was giving an interview to La Montagne, a French regional newspaper, on upcoming French legislative elections. At the end of the wide-ranging discussion, Macron answered a direct question about the war in Ukraine. 

“We must not humiliate Russia so that when the fighting is over, we can forge a diplomatic agreement,” he said in the June 3 interview. “I’m convinced that France’s role is as a mediating power.”

The comments were not well-received. Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, responded that such an approach “can only humiliate France.” 

Three days later, Gerard Larcher, president of the French Senate and second to the president of the republic in the constitutional line of succession, said he’d go to Kyiv “very soon.” He made the vow during a press conference in Paris with the head of Ukraine’s parliament, Rouslan Stefantchuk, in what appeared to be an attempt to smooth ruffled feathers. 

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    At least Macron’s better than Le Pen. I don’t like the line he’s trying to walk but the alternative was worse.

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  2. Duane Truitt

    Russia must be humiliated - that is the only motivation for them to not repeat their war making over and over again. There must be absolutely no reward whatsoever to Russia for invading a non-threatening neighbor.

    It is not up to France or any other nation supporting Ukraine to set terms. It is strictly up to Ukraine. And the only terms the Ukrainians have demanded are for Russia to get the hell out of Ukraine - ALL of Ukraine including Crimea, Donbas, Donetsk, ALL of Ukraine. And stay the hell out.

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    Pat Riot

    Whenever I think through the possibilities here, I don't see how Russia could possibly trust anything that gets negotiated. If the war stopped today Ukraine would not stop its military buildup and would continue to arm and forge more ties with NATO and other countries. Time is on Ukraine's side if Russia stops its advance, and I would think Russia knows that better than anybody.


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    1. Duane Truitt

      It is only in the fevered insane imaginations of Russians and Russian sympathizers that Ukraine could ever attempt to conquer Russia. That would be like arming up and invading Canada to prevent Canada from conquering the US. See how stupid that sounds?

      There is no history whatsoever of Ukrainians lording it over Russia. Indeed it has always been the opposite.

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        Pat Riot

        They wouldn't be afraid of being conquered, but they would have every reason to be afraid that whatever concession they were given to broker the peace would be taken back by Ukraine in the medium term.

        If I were Putin I think I would have to assume that's he's all-in on Ukraine: either conquer it or deal with a very permanent belligerent foe there for now on (until say Putin himself dies, at which point a new treaty could be signed without losing face).

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  4. Trimline

    Sometimes an informed, dispassionate analysis can be helpful.

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    1. Duane Truitt

      And many times, very harmful.

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    JohnD

    In my youth, I would have been all in for Ukraine and been highly critical of what France (via Macron) are doing. However, as I age, I realize that (to quote the Rolling Stones) "You can't always get what you want" and that the cost to Ukraine of this war could ultimately be catastrophic. I think France is playing an important role here, as without a responsible mediating player, no compromise or peace can be found. In the long term I think Ukraine has a future and I am not sure the current Russia does. Finding that 'half a loaf' now may well position Ukraine for a brighter future. Plus, I would much rather have France as the responsible mediator as say Turkey or China.

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    1. Duane Truitt

      The cost to Russia is more catastrophic than for Ukraine.

      The notion of appeasement has never ever ever worked, because it ignores human nature. Yet the appeasers never stop proclaiming their faith in ever failing appeasement.

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  6. Natty Bumpo

    France and Germany will certainly have significant voices in any European arrangements with Russia and Ukraine, but appeasement has not worked (ever?) when dealing with tyrants. I think Russia could use a good dose of humility, to shake this idea that they can and should reassume the role of an eastern empire born of the sanctity of Holy Russia. The West was always interested and willing to work with Russia on numerous fronts, but Russia has insufficient faith in its ability to negotiate the rockem-sockem democratic and free market world to be a reliable partner. They should find their own way without resorting to conquest and the West needs to be firm in that outlook.

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  7. P Satter

    Thank you for an interesting article.
    "I truly think that the best way to defend our interest is to, as they say, be around the table rather than on the menu,” Quencez said..."
    Well Ukraine, a country whose only crime is being situated next to Russia and who also tried to negotiate, is not only on the menu it is currently fighting for its very survival and being violently consumed. Where is the compassion for the Ukrainians in this statement? One should look only to Putin's statements and Russia's recent history to see the only path towards "peace" and avoidance of "humiliation" in Putin's eyes is the brutal subjugation of his neighbors.

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    MatthewRobin

    After the failure of Minsk I and II France can go sit at the children's table.

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