Turkey on the Brink

Next year’s presidential election could reshape how Ankara sees its place in the world.

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President Erdogan of Turkey in 2020. (Photo by ADEM ALTAN/AFP via Getty Images)

ISTANBUL—Ekrem Imamoglu, mayor of this bustling city of more than 15 million, is perhaps the greatest threat to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s bid for reelection. The bespectacled 52-year-old also is facing a four-year jail sentence and ban on holding public office after being charged with “insulting” election officials. His defenders say this isn’t a coincidence.

Imamoglu rose to national prominence after beating Erdogan’s handpicked candidate for Istanbul mayor in 2019. After a partisan election commission canceled the results over alleged fraud, he won the repeat election by nearly ten points. The opposition now hopes to translate local wins like Imamoglu’s into success in Turkey’s upcoming presidential election.

It has a real shot for the first time in years, and this could lead to a reset between Turkey and the West in general and the U.S. in particular. But in the meantime, relations could suffer as Erdogan builds on nationalist sentiment. 

An alliance of six opposition parties, led by the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP), agreed in February to select a joint presidential candidate to unseat Erdogan. The faltering popularity of Turkey’s sole executive has brought that goal within reach, but the opposition needs to act fast. With the election six months away the alliance has yet to name its standard-bearer, and Erdogan, who spent the past decade consolidating presidential power and solidifying his grasp on civil society, may take drastic steps to stay in power. The Istanbul mayor’s supporters say the charges against their leader are only one example. 

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  1. Avatar photo
    Chris L

    This is a brilliant article. It is fascinating how Erdoğan is following the same trajectory of the current anti-authoritarianism wave this year (Putin being exposed as the frightful Hitlierite he accidentally is, Bolsonaro being jettisoned, even Xi coming under fire lately), midterms aside. I love the nuance in finding some potential concerns with Imamoglu too.

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    Ed P

    Thank you Charlotte! Excellent piece, very informative!

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    Ed P

    And we see how Putin plays Erdogan with economic power and everything else at his disposal. The postSoviet a-holes know just the right buttons to push to try to divide Turkey from NATO.

    Turkey will likely follow Iran with destabilizing unrest, surrounding these elections. The level of inflation in Turkey relative to its neighbors makes it nearly impossible for Ergodan to avoid blame. He will likely lose the election, and the post Soviets will do what they can to convince Ergodan to clamp down and pull a Trump-like “stop the steal”. The massive clampdown after a very suspiciously ill-conceived 2016 coup was extremely effective for Ergodan to consolidate power last time around, after all. Putin’s henchman were likely in the wings then as well. And oh gee, wasn’t that the same era as Trump’s election and Brexit (not too long after EuroMaidan and Crimea stealing.) Its almost like this is part of the same coordinated attack on the Western alliance as retaliation for that Ukrainian Democratic Revolution.

    These tyrants - Putin, MBS (and their acolytes like Darth Orban and Count Trump) use their information advantage to corrupt leadership. They align interests and then push dominating psychology - bust any norms and institutions that stand in your way, eventually and most fundamentally, truth itself. They invent just the right conspiracy theories to exact maximum distrust and polarization of voting populations.

    As such, tyranny is spread and democracy dies.

    But cooperative, liberal democracy is just fundamentally better, more efficient and more fair than their tyranny. So it ain’t gonna work. As long as we don’t let it. Putin will lose this hybrid WW3 and the world will be far better for it.

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    Wilhelm

    Wonderful, informative piece, Charlotte. Keep up the good.

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  5. Payette

    Great article, Charlotte!

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    JohnD

    Thank you, Charlotte, - Americans and the West had better keep an eye on Turkey and Erdogan. Turkey is the 'Keystone State' of the Eurasian land mass, and an anti-western turn by Turkey could be bad for all of us. And Erdogan seems to always play the security card when he feels threatened, which given the state of the Turkish economy he has every right to feel. This sometimes ally and sometimes member in good standing in NATO tries to play it both ways, and this could lead to a dangerous situation.

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    Victor Clairmont

    Excellent information.

    Erdogan is actually a much bigger threat than most realize. With the second largest ground force in NATO, Erdogan took years to consolidate his power over government before he became the dictator he is. His removal via democratic methods if possible will be an absolute boon to the West, and a sore if he remains.

    Though dictators never like to see their power challenged and Erdogan is ruthless, let us hope Turkey finds itself in more stable waters should he be removed from power.

    Though people like Tayipp do not go quietly into the night.

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    BWG

    Charlotte, thanks for this informative piece. I knew Erdogan was not popular last summer and wondered if that would translate into anything of substance. We'll see if the agreement between the opposition parties holds and if it bears any fruit.
    Very cool that you were able to be in Istanbul to do some research. Are you based there or elsewhere in Europe? Or periodically make trips where the stories take you?

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    Cthocas

    Hell of a headline a day after Thanksgiving.

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  10. Mirabelle Schnocklevan

    I saw the headline and thought this was going to be about high turkey prices and diseases like bird flu displacing turkey from its position as centerpiece of the Thanksgiving meal. I guess I've been reading too many economic articles lately.

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