Will Colorado Choose a ‘Republican Joe Manchin’?

Senate candidate Joe O’Dea walks a fine line between touting his independence and alienating Colorado’s GOP base.

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Colorado Republican Senate candidate Joe O'Dea talks with supporters during a meet and greet event. (Photo by Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images)

BROOMFIELD, Colo.—Republicans in blue-leaning Colorado have long understood that winning statewide office means running to the center. In a few hours they’ll know whether longshot Senate candidate Joe O’Dea took that strategy too far. 

O’Dea—who is trying to  unseat Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet—has focused his campaign on crime, inflation, and President Joe Biden, who is unpopular in Colorado despite winning the state two years ago. But O’Dea has gone further than other GOP hopefuls in trying to broaden his appeal.

Broadening his appeal, by definition, includes distancing himself from the country’s most famous Republican. O’Dea has been outspoken about the legitimacy of Biden’s election. And he rails against the possibility of another presidential run by Donald Trump, who has denounced the candidate as “stupid” and a “RINO.” 

O’Dea also has adopted moderate views on some issues. The self-styled “Republican Joe Manchin” laments this summer’s overturning of Roe v. Wade and supports the legalization of abortion through five months of pregnancy with exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother. 

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  1. R. James

    Nope.

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    Mark B

    I almost Voted O'Dea and would have if he wasn't planning to caucus with the republicans. I've little love for Democratic leadership but I prefer their brand of ineffectual hand-ringing to the alternative. though it may not matter in the long run.

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    John A. Daly

    Thanks for this profile. As a Coloradoan, I was happy to cast a vote for O'Dea. We shut down a lot of MAGA election-deniers in the GOP primary. A little easier here than in other places, being that the Colorado GOP has never been as quite as Trumpy as other state parties.

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  4. J. Everett Schubert

    While it would admittedly take a miracle to pull it off, I wish Mr. O'Dea well. I'd welcome another independent minded Republican to the fold. Also, a hat tip to the Republican primary voters in CO, who rejected a surefire loser extremist, opting for a moderate who actually can win.

    I wish that primary voters in Pennsylvania and Arizona shared your sobriety.

    We're losing Toomey, Portman, and Blunt, so we need some more adults in that room. I agree with the comment that said that Colorado isn't a blue state, it's a purple state, and the fact that they've been voting for more Democrats in recent years says more about the crappy quality of candidates that Republicans put forth than anything else.

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    Earl King

    Im not going to say anything profound here but voters and politicians and parties are weird.
    the vast majority of voters are in the middle. Center right, Center Left. You’d think that is where all politicians want to be. But noooooooo. They choose to be in the extremes. It’s bizarre so we, the voter, are only left with voting for one extreme or the other. Generally whoever appears not to be crazy and appears to be nice they win.
    Corey got to close to exhaust and was consumed by it.

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      Rlritt

      My congressman, who is in a tight race due to redistricting is not extreme. He is a lawyer, and decided to go into politics because he believes the Envonment is an important issue. He is especially concerned about the nuclear waste deposit in San Onefre.

      His opponent is very extreme. He is anti abortion under any circumstances. He is an election denier. He is against the affordable care act, which if repealed, would mean my two kids would not have insurance. They buy health ins. on the exchange and it is the same price they would pay if they were on a company plan. If it gets repealed it will be 5 times higher.

      They say it's a toss up, but I can't believe that. Everyone I know, even the Republicans, support our congressman.

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        Earl King

        Yes it is the minority of activists who nominate someone. That there are normals is usually a testament to longevity. My “normal” GOP congressmen has been there 40 years. He has survived two attempts by Trumpy candidates to take him down. So far no good. A testament to the normals in my district. Your Democrat Congressmen needs to understand that it was Harry Reid who single handedly prevented this waste going to the National Repository in Nevada. Every Rod ever used in any Nuclear Plant is still there because of Harry Reid. So if he were that concerned he’s be a little pissed at the leadership of Harry Reid.

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          Rlritt

          I think he is aware of that. He is youngish, but knowledgeable about that issue. I'm sure he isn't blaming anyone, and I think he also knows it's an up hill battle. I've talked to him about it. He has been at a lot of public outings and is very approachable. Compared to the literal thief (indicted) he replaced,he is a breath of fresh air.

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            Earl King

            We’ll there you go. Trestles a surf beach in front of the generator. Went only once. Kinda far from Huntington where I grew up.

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      Scarlette Tarte

      No, they really are not in the center. Voters are emotional, voting is an emotional exercise, and whoever excited those emotions is far likelier to be the winner, no matter the party.

      Which is why we should be self aware enough to not reward those who do that, and vote for the boring ones.

      Everyone likes to say "oh, I look at the issues before I vote", blah blah blah. They may tell themselves that, but inevitably they will say "I voted for so and so, I LIKED him/her. Like is an emotion.

      Voters are mad they have to pay a little more for gas...mad is an emotion. They see the Democrats as "weak". That's an emotional response too. Trump is strong he "fights". Emotion.

      Voters are not centrist. They are emotional. A demaguoge plays to emotion. They build your fear into mass hysteria...see how the Republicans all scream "voter fraud" where there is scant evidence of such. Emotionalism overrides logic.

      That is what we have now...purely driven by emotion politics.

      O'Dea is not likely to win, and it's ok, because he is running against Bennet. They are both fine. When you have two, non emotional, pretty boring people running for office, who do not appeal to extremes, nor are they moved by extremes...that is what we all should want.

      But we don't. We want the excitement of pro wrestling.

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    3. MathewA

      This is because only 15-20% of general election voters vote in the primary. To put it another way 80% of voters are too freaking lazy to bother to vote in a primary so we get extreme candidates in the fall.

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        Rlritt

        It's not so much lazy as busy doing other things like working, raising kids, taking care of their house.

        I myself think we should go back to smoke filled rooms where the Party picks the nominee. If we had that, Trump would never have been nominated. But neither would have Obama or Hillary Clinton.

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        1. MathewA

          I get people are busy, but how long really does it take to vote? If we want to keep our democracy more voters will have to take on some responsbility

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        Earl King

        Tru Dat.....it is a problem. In the GOP is used to be just the elderly that voted. Now its a group of wackos and pissed off people. Fractious politicians like keeping the animals hungry and angry.....A pox on both Parties.

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          Scarlette Tarte

          Which is a big reason why we should get rid of the primary system, and go pack to letting the parties pick the candidates, and then we get to vote between two fairly boring candidates and it's more on policy.

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            Rlritt

            Yep. That's the best way. Voters are too emotional and it is now just a beauty contest.

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    Derekdouglas

    Electionbettingodds.com, which aggregates the betting markets, only gives O'Dea a 9% chance of winning.

    I have been following this site over polls.

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    The Bell Tower

    “Colorado hasn’t elected a Republican senator since 2014“

    That makes it sound like a lot longer than it really is given six year terms. Maybe he has a shot.

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    The History Nerd

    I think he'll make it a lot closer but I think Colorado is just too blue for him to get over that hump and win. However, if he does manage to win, all bets are off, amid what would be an amazing night for the GOP.

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    1. DTruitt

      You say that Colorado is "too blue" for a Republican, but that flies in the face of facts. In 2022 Colorado voter registrations are only 27.5% Democrat, 24.7% Republican, and a whopping 47.8% independent. Nearly half of all CO voters are not affiliated with either major party, which is a bit higher than the national average for independents.

      Colorado is clearly a purple state. That it has elected more Democrats than Republicans in recent years is a reflection of perceptions of candidate quality than their D or R after their name. Which is why though CO voted heavily for Biden in 2020 (vs Trump), his polls there are now underwater, with a poll last week showing 49% disapproval and 44% approval. This is fairly typical across all of the states that are not dominated in registrations by Dems. Biden was elected because he wasn't Trump, not because he was Biden.

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      1. GreyHen

        The statewide power rests definitively in the hands of Democrats, and it has for a while now. When the majority of elections continue to result in blue victories, is it really "purple" anymore?

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      2. S.A. Peterson

        Democrats control every level of statewide government, including both chambers of legislature, secretary of state, governor, US senators, and a majority of congresspersons are Dems.

        Party registration doesn't tell much in a state where you can choose your primary on election day. The population has grown precipitously over the last year through inward migration, which skews young and liberal. Save for some red enclaves in Colorado Springs and the Eastern Plains, the state is dominated by the democratic party.

        From the point of view of this Coloradan, if Colorado is purple, it's a deep-blue purple.

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          Jaliranchr

          The state is dominated by unaffiliated voters who dislike both and want reason, but the Rs are wackier every election. The Ds will stay in power until the Rs get rid of the kooks, and honestly, our diminished O2 seems to perpetuate and worsen the issue on the R side of the books every election. I'm on the Plains. I saw a perfectly mainstream R commissioner get primaried by a Christian Nationalist and guess who won? It wasn't Mr. This is My Job and It Isn't Too Glamorous.
          I am unaffiliated. I voted the R ticket this year to fight the kooks. I voted for O'Dea in the primary. I did not vote for him in the general because he didn't impress me enough to throw Bennet away yet.

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          Patti Scriffiny

          Two things to add...first, don't forget the western slope, which is pretty red outside of Telluride. I live in CO3 and it is very likely Lauren B will head back to congress, no thanks to me. I wrote in her primary opponent for my vote.

          Also, CO voters can show an independent streak when they want to, but they don't tend to like extreme candidates. The GOP hasn't had a really good statewide candidate since Cory Gardner ran for his first term. Polis turned out to be less predictable than I thought, especially in his response to COVID. If he had handled COVID more like governors in CA and other blue states, he'd likely be packing.

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      Kmregan7

      If he DOES win AND actually "keeps McConnell on his toes" I will cheer a bit. And I'm a liberal Dem. We need some fresh, moderate-liberal Republicans to keep both parties on their toes. Just like Dems need some fresh, moderate-conservative Dems to keep both parties on their toes. Of course, I say this now. Partisanship will kick in occasionally, but this is my rational side LOL

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        Scarlette Tarte

        I totally agree with you, Kat. Both parties need moderates.

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      2. DTruitt

        Yes, for sure. More independent minded members of the Senate is a good thing because they are not beholden to the extremists in the two parties, and they are more likely to search for bipartisan compromise rather than "my way or the highway" lawmaking. The Senate does tend to be more bipartisan than the House, because most House members are elected from "safe" districts where they're totally beholden to the partisan extremists who wield far more power in the primary process than do the moderates.

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