Wisconsin Republicans Might Have Outperformed Trump. But Will It Last?

GOP support is softening in the suburbs.

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Donald Trump’s loss in Wisconsin on Tuesday might create the impression that the state GOP is, to borrow a phrase from The Princess Bride, “mostly dead.”

But Trump’s performance obscures the fact that Wisconsin Republican candidates had a strong night, with the GOP picking up two seats in the State Senate and losing only two seats from a bloated majority in the State Assembly despite the fact Democrats more than doubled GOP fundraising efforts. Pre-election polling had suggested the Assembly losses could be much deeper. The final vote leaves Republicans with a 21-12 majority in the Senate and a 61-38 majority in the Assembly. 

Trump lost in part because he saw support fade in the state’s largest GOP-friendly counties. In each one of the three suburban Milwaukee “WOW” counties—Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington—Trump’s margin over Biden was smaller than it was over Hillary Clinton in 2016.  Had Trump merely won the WOW counties in 2020 by the same proportions he won them in 2016, he would have narrowly overcome Biden’s final lead of around 20,500 votes. 

In heavily Republican Waukesha County, where 268,000 votes were cast, Trump’s margin of victory shrunk by 5.7 percentage points over 2016—in smaller counties Ozaukee and Washington, that erosion was 6.8 points and 2.1 points, respectively. 

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  1. Avatar photo
    Peter A

    I believe that Trump has been a drag on the WI Republican ticket. I believe it cost Walker the governor position. I believe voting split ticket is not common, and removing Trump will improve Republican support.

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    Victor Clairmont

    Honestly, as the article points out, the GOP as a whole did great, and Wisconsin it wasn’t so bad. Across the nation the senate most likely holds: house seats pickups, redistricting in their grasp, they are really poised for 2022 and possibly 2024.

    Yes the Democrats most likely take the White House back but it has been a Pyrrhic victory it seems. At least from this independently registered voter.

    Now can the republics take advantage of it? Or will the democrats reverse course and become truly centrist or more radical left? We now know that among republicans, populism is here to stay for good or ill.

    Thanks for the article!

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  3. Avatar photo
    Pat Riot

    This article, as I suspect 60% of TD articles will do in the the coming months, backs into the question, "what is the GOP going to be after Trump?".

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    1. Avatar photo
      Wade Paulsen

      Since no one knows, there will be a lot of speculation on the subject. The problem with this article is that it doesn't offer much actual analysis but rather relies on partisan homilies.

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    Jon Bayerlein

    Has anyone found a comprehensive analysis of how many ticket splitters there were across the country? I saw a big chunk in Maine (80,000+) who voted Biden and Collins. NE2 looks like it voted for a Republican House candidate and Biden. I feel as though ticket splitting was an enormously powerful factor this year and I haven't seen enough coverage on the scope of it.

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  5. teddytruther

    Feels like any discussion about the WI GOP's overperformance that doesn't start and end with the word "gerrymandering" is kind of missing the boat.

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    1. Avatar photo
      DrBlud

      Gerrymandering is based on geography and vote segregation based on geography. Compare the voting maps of 2000 and 2020, and it provides some insight I think. Democrats used to carry some rural/suburban counties in western Wisconsin (Catholic vote I understand). That vanished over the past 20 years. I think it is due to a gradual shift of social positions from legal but rare to none of your business.

      Now most of the Democratic vote is in Milwaukee and Dane County which vote 80-90% Democratic. If one draws lines that make districts that don't look like a salamander, this will result in what is called gerrymandering. Rectangles and squares would make this voter segregation even worse. Our constitution (WI) thus leaves it to the reps and governor to decide based on the census every 10 years. Thems the rules. Not sure one can really come up with something better. I think the only way to change this is for one side or the other to start winning some votes outside of rural and WOW or Dane and Milwaukee. It is starting to change in the Winnebago counties a little, but still segregated (not talking race/ethnicity necessarily)

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      1. CW

        Oh, please. Wisconsin is one of the most partisan gerrymandered states in the nation. I live here. I saw what happened. GOP drew lines to give them more districts with fewer voters and piled all the liberals into one or two districts. GOP is anti-democratic and one day the rest of the country is going to realize it.

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      2. Avatar photo
        Tom B.

        I'm gonna just leave this here for those who aren't familiar with the impact of gerrymandering on the WI state government:

        https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/blogs/wisconsin-voter/2018/12/06/wisconsin-gerrymandering-data-shows-stark-impact-redistricting/2219092002/

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      3. Avatar photo
        Kmregan7

        Not having it "left to the reps and governor" (ie. a political party, no matter which one) would certainly help.

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          Tom B.

          As far as I understand it, there is some hope for the WI state map this cycle (2020), because the governor is a Democrat and the Republican-dominated legislature does not have a veto-proof majority. That *should* force some level of compromise, and hopefully result in a map where Republicans won't have a baked-in 62-37 advantage in the Assembly (before the 2010 redistricting, there was still an advantage due to geographical factors, but it was 56-43).

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        2. Avatar photo
          DrBlud

          But that would leave it in the hands of an elite to draw at a whim every 10 years. There is a strong egalitarian streak among residents of WI (me included) that does not necessarily trust the wisdom of the Gnostics in Dane county. Probably a result of history and lessons learned. We are the state of progressives (1880-1920) who were told to stop having our beer (imposed from above). We are "not Chicago" and like to think of ourselves as reasonable. The Democratic response to act 10 really did a lot to hurt the party's reputation as willing to discuss. IMO Trump could not have carried WI in 2016 if that had not happened.

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          1. CW

            "But that would leave it in the hands of an elite to draw at a whim every 10 years."

            Good grief. This is incomprehensible ranting. The elite in this state is the GOP who give servile deference to billionaires. Please stop.

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            Kmregan7

            I was thinking more along the lines of a bipartisan committee....not a group of "elitists" (which version of elitists are you using here: elitists like the wealthy, or elitists like "educated experts that we don't want to listen to")

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  6. CW

    Vos is right that Wisconsin Democrats didn't have a ground game because of the pandemic and that hurt us. One bit of good news for Democrats is that the GOP failed to pick up a 2/3 supermajority so cannot override a veto. It's important now because districts are going to be redrawn and they won't have carte blanche to pick their own voters again. Hopefully we will have fairer representation in the coming years and not minority rule.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Bill Nelson

      Are the republican majorities in the legislature minority rule? Are the populations of the districts wildly different?

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      1. Avatar photo
        Tom B.

        Yes and yes. In the 2018 election, Republicans took 45% of the vote and 63/99 seats. Democrats would have needed to win on average by 20 points in the popular vote to to gain a majority of seats. I haven't seen the final numbers for 2020, but that is the baseline the state is working from.

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  7. Avatar photo
    Bill Nelson

    Where democrats running more progressive candidates or more moderate? But it is clear that Trump was repudiated, and large numbers of votes being against Trump but not for Biden.

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      Kmregan7

      I wish Trump had been repudiated. I'd have a lot more hope if Trump had been strongly defeated, even if (as seems to be the case, though a very small one), people chose Republicans down ticket. A blow out to Biden and a bunch of Republicans who won down-ballot, much as I don't like Republicans or their policies, would help things, I think.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Bill Nelson

        Trump would have been wiped out if the democrats had a good candidate. I see none in either party.
        Hickenlooper would have smashed Trump because a lot of anti-Trump people could have voted for him. I go back to Mr Goldberg’s proposition that the problem is in the collapse of the party.

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          Kmregan7

          I don't know what people want when they say "if Dems had a good candidate." First, democratic voters rejected a firebrand (Sanders) Democratic socialist in favor of a moderate, centrist-left candidate. But that wasn't enough because apparently Biden is also too leftist. The Democrats are more liberal. We're not going to choose a Republican or a conservative. So, who, exactly, would have been a "good candidate." Meanwhile, the GOP didn't have any competition whatsoever. It was Trump or no one.

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          1. Avatar photo
            Bill Nelson

            In 2016 republicans had some solid candidates, Jindal was excellent, Bush was very experienced (I opposed him because of the dynasty thing). None got traction. Same with the democrats this year. None got traction.
            A number of congressional retirements were people who were serious legislators, on both sides. On the Republican side these were not Trump supporters. Perhaps they would have been primaried out, several serious democrats lost primaries.

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        2. Avatar photo
          Ed P

          If you found reasons to hate Biden, you’ll find reasons to hate nearly anyone.

          He is as uncontroversial and center of the road in policy and character as can possibly be expected.

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            Bill Nelson

            Biden is not uncontroversial. He has always been partisan, party first. Biden is not a moderate, he always moves to the center of the Democratic Party, not the nation as a whole.
            Biden is about as concerned with truth as is Trump. There are many examples. Here is my personal favorite: when asked how much he had in the stock market, he answered none. Kinda true, all the investments were in his wife’s name. Government reporting requires the wealth/debt of senator and spouse, so legally okay, but devious.
            And he is not the sharpest knife in the drawer. And the hair smelling is just creepy.

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            Kmregan7

            Exactly. Now, BIDEN is too far to the left, or he's going to be "controlled by the left" or "die and Harris will be president" ...

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      Ed P

      I wish Trump were repudiated.

      48% supported him. 2 QAnon supporting Congressmen have been epected. Maga populism will continue to dominate gop politics for at least another election cycle and I am ashamed at my nation because of it, even with a Biden win.

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        Bill Nelson

        How much of the 48% repudiated Biden?

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          Ed P

          Repudiated Biden? For what? Running a totally moderate, uncontroversial candidacy based on longstanding core American values and decency?

          That we did NOT get significant crossover votes for Biden from Republicans will fuel the furthest left wing arguments that moderation is for dummies. That conservatives will support an obvious autocratic threat to our nation over anyone the Democrats put up, no matter how moderate.

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          1. Mathew A

            "Running a totally moderate, uncontroversial candidacy based on longstanding core American values and decency? "

            Sure it's moderate to say that we are going to get rid of fossil fuels. And moderate to not denounce court packing.

            Or maybe it's moderate now to support government funding of abortion?

            You don't like Trump, that's fine I get that. But don't pretend that the Democrats haven't gone WAY WAY left.

            Obama of 2008 would be a racist, sexist homophobe to today's Democratic party.

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  8. Avatar photo
    John D. Wright

    Good analysis and excellent article. I wonder if Trump in his dying breath in WI saved the GOP. By turning out voters who don't normally support the GOP, he helped them to hang on in many places. They likely got some of those suburban voters that Trump lost. The question is will Trump's new voters show up again without Trump? I have my doubts.

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    1. Counterpoint

      I was going to make the same point. It is hard to tell as 2018 was a "wave" year, but with the shift in the electorate, it will be interesting to see how Republicans fare in 2022 without Trump on the ballot.

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        Kmregan7

        I predict they'll fare better, but I don't know. I still can't believe anyone could still vote for Trump.

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          Bill Nelson

          It is not hard to understand.

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