Zero-COVID’s Lasting Damage

Xi Jinping’s pandemic miscalculations could cost China big.

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A woman takes a COVID test in Guiyang, Guizhou province, China. (Photo credit should read CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images)

COVID-19 cases in China are surging, but so is public sentiment against President Xi Jinping’s strict pandemic restrictions. The public-health consequences could be dire. 

Following mass protests, Chinese officials this week ushered in a “new stage and mission” of China’s pandemic response. The government announced Wednesday that it was taking the first nationwide steps away from “zero-COVID,” which aimed to completely stop rather than mitigate the virus’ spread. The country’s goal now would be to “return to the state before the epidemic,” Chinese epidemiologist Liang Wannian said on state-run television, “but the realization of the goal must have conditions.”

The new approach scraps the negative test requirement for domestic travel and most public venues with the exception of schools, medical facilities, and nursing homes. It also allows individuals with asymptomatic or mild cases to isolate at home rather than quarantine facilities, reduces the length of required isolation for their close contacts, and puts limits on the time and scope of mass lockdowns for areas considered “high-risk.” Authorities previously could designate entire residential complexes, communities, and localities for lockdown. 

Beijing’s decision to ease nationwide restrictions and similar local-level changes mark a partial victory for the thousands of demonstrators who took to China’s streets demanding an end to zero-COVID. The policy—which enjoyed relative public compliance for three years—used intrusive and disruptive practices like mobile tracking, regular testing, and forced centralized quarantine to limit COVID cases. 

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Comments (19)
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  1. Avatar photo
    Ms. SSM

    While normally I’d wish bad things on China mass deaths is not on the list. Xi I’m sure will survive. As in literally survive. He’s probably had the best vaccines already and will get the best care. It’s his people who will suffer.

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  2. Avatar photo
    Magpie

    So Xi's government locked everyone up but didn't vaccinate them. This was after unleashing the virus on the world by disregarding the earliest reports of it back in 2019, even jailing a doctor who was among the first to warn them about it. I hope Xi goes down in flames, along with the rest of his incompetent cronies. I would love to see him die of covid, but he's probably protected himself using the best means modern science can provide. Ugh.

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  3. Ben.Bobbitt

    I’m concerned about how this will shake out politically for the Chinese. One the one hand, the mass protests had an effect, which might tend to encourage the people to protest other things in the future. However, if the abandonment of zero-covid results in millions of deaths, the people could conceivably conclude that they should have “obeyed” their government masters. Hopefully, they will conclude rather that their government has failed them dramatically in failing to provide vaccines and better prepared health systems.

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  4. Avatar photo
    LarryO

    Great article. Very informative. Thanks Charlotte!

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  5. Georges

    It’s fair to say no one knows how the covid situation in China will play out.
    Some of the predictions in this article are eerily reminiscent of the half baked predictions made roughly 3 years ago in the US though.
    It also seems weird that a totalitarian govt doing harsh lockdown measures can’t seem to get a large percentage of citizens vaccinated.

    How this all plays out is tbd. I wish them all the best: they’ll probably need it.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Ms. SSM

      They are using less effective vaccines. Totalitarian government uses subpar medicine out of misguided anti west sentiment. That’s a better take away. It doesn’t matter if they are all vaxxed if doesn’t last and has lower efficacy.

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  6. Avatar photo
    Victor Clairmont

    “ Xi Jinping’s pandemic miscalculations could cost China big.”

    Good.

    May his communist party burn to the ground around him.

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  7. Avatar photo
    Mattjabour

    I feel like this is gonna hit us, too. The largest country in the world suddenly has a huge new wave of cases? There's no way that wave stays in China. Maybe the next variant is somewhere in there, waiting for a cross-country trip.

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  8. Avatar photo
    Chris L

    So much about Zero-COVID was a disaster, agreed that this will only worsen in a way. Either they continue Zero-COVID and have widespread insurrection, or they lift everything and the mass deaths lead to widespread insurrection. Both instances may lead to Tiananmen 2.0, but nationwide, and that's on top of the estimated 2million Chinese deaths at the start of the pandemic (if the dropoff in cell numbers is to be interpreted the way I cynically do).

    This will be ... well, I don't think "fun" is the word, but you get it.

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    1. Joe1776

      Pushing effective vaccines for the vulnerable is a much better approach than thinking you can hide your head in the sand with zero-covid.

      Since I have no faith in China's numbers I am not sure they do not already have natural immunity. I guess we will find out.

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  9. Avatar photo
    Gibby

    A big thank you to big bad pharma for developing that vaccine. If not for that this article could very well have been describing the United States! (the grounding of China's policy sounds very similar to ours ca. 2020)

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  10. Evan

    It seems really odd that vaccination is where it is for them? They can enforce super lockdowns but not make everyone get vaccinated? How does that work?

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