An Unlikely Rout

Republicans are winning the politics of the debt ceiling fight handily.

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Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy speaks to members of the media at the U.S. Capitol on May 24, 2023, in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

There are many ways to measure Joe Biden’s decline, political and otherwise, but here’s one that’s unexpected. One of the weakest House speakers in living memory is running rings around him in a high-stakes negotiation.

Imagine being routed by a guy who needed 15 ballots and boatloads of concessions to persuade his own caucus to choose him, very grudgingly, as its leader.

It’s a sacred rule of modern right-wing politics that the GOP must pretend to care about federal spending if—and only if—a Democrat is president, and so a debt-ceiling landmine was set the moment Republicans clinched a House majority last fall. But there was every reason to think that landmine would end up wounding Kevin McCarthy when it went off far more gravely than it would Biden.

The fight in 2011 was different. John Boehner led a huge House Republican majority and claimed a mandate to cut spending after Tea Party candidates swept to victory a year earlier. An electoral backlash to TARP, the 2009 stimulus package, and Obamacare all but required him to play hardball with Barack Obama over the size of government. In that context, it wasn’t silly for the right to believe that the public would rally behind them.

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  1. AJLiberty

    The cart is before the horse.

    First, the Republicans need to develop a true deficit reduction plan that balances not scuttling the economy with not knee-capping the military in dangerous times and not kicking granny off the cliff.

    Second, the political environment has to be readied for hard work and tough compromises. The current toxicity means we pay representatives to make ridiculous statements about the other side and pretend any of it matters. The cameras, the microphones....the Twitter...all of it has to be set aside so adults can be adults and work on adult problems. As some point, the deficits and debt will break the system. They need to act like that is more important than scoring one against the other side.

    Third, the two sides need to set down and deal....using best numbers and reasonable projections of inflation and economic activity. Representatives that leak or grandstand should lose their committee assignments and be sanctioned. This might require a commission of retired pols...like Alan Simpson in the day....to blend the recommendations so both sides give up some things and win some things.

    Fourth, the public needs to be educated. Not in an irritating partisan manner, but in a way that inspires citizens to do the right thing. We all know we can't continue leaving all of this debt to the next generation and hoping that interest rates don't escalate a crisis. The electorate needs to readied for sacrifice.

    Fifth, the media can't weaponize the compromise to excite its favorite partisan bubble. There has to be some reward for being an adult and cutting a deal. The media can't throw it away to play outrage theater. Yes there's the first amendment....and there's an internet of possibilities....but we have to demand better from that estate. I'm open to ideas to make them more responsible.

    Sixth, voters must reward bold compromise and punish obstructionism. If you are not part of the solution, you need to leave service. The spending power cannot continue to be abused by politicians with no accountability for the debt that they leave. Both parties.

    Seventh, some larger mechanisms need to be codified to keep us on track. Give Congress some flexibility to address crises and downturns, but otherwise across the board cuts and taxes limit the hemorrhaging.

    Right now we battle about 54 or 54.5mph versus the current 55mph. The hairpin turn and cliff is still approaching. We need a burst of getting real....but it requires much of the above seven points which are geared to facilitating the compromise that is needed. Let's try being Americans first, then Republicans and Democrats.

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      Charlie

      Voters aren't interested in sacrifices. Particularly when they are pushed by your own party. Note what happened to the entirely good idea to cut ethanol subsidies. They vanished in yet another example of Republican Corporate Welfare. And the Democrats won't go after this hypocrisy because they still have dreams of winning elections in Iowa.

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    Theirnscott

    Hmmm, so if McCarthy produces a win on the debt ceiling and the Democrats while rending themselves blame Biden, you mean that maybe, just maybe, they’ll decide to find another to run in 2024??

    If so, one septuagenarian down, one to go.

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      BrandonAlleman

      That is the most positive take I got from this. All it takes, hopefully, is for one candidate with a disgruntled constituency to open the door for others.

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        Theirnscott

        Yep!

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    Fred LaSor

    For something like 60 years, Joe Biden has dreamed of, and lusted after, the presidency. Now he has it, and like the proverbial car-chasing dog, doesn't know what to do with it. America suffers.

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      Charlie

      Actually he has been remarkably successful given how dysfunctional Congress is.

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    Normb1442

    And now I see that Biden is apparently willing to reduce the added funding to the IRS as part of a deal, in other words, defunding the police and adding to the deficit in the process. Sickening.

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  5. Edmcschroeder

    Republicans are winning the argument but if the proposed entitlement cuts occur will lose future elections. The U.S. is far behind other developed countries in providing adequate health care for the entire population (check life span, physicians/capita) and distribution of care (check the difficulty of getting appointments and wait time for most of the population). The world has changed since the Eisenhower years that the GOP seems to live in. CT scans, MRI's wonderful surgery techniques and much more have been developed. The internet, modern manufacturing that allows continued high production with far fewer workers, on and on. Providing a conservative response to progressive proposals does not include calling people idiots. Recognizing the changes occurring and the problems that result requires thoughtful discussion not anger.

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      Dave in Houston

      Who, specifically has proposed “entitlement cuts”?

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      1. Edmcschroeder

        An assumption is that there will be no cuts in defense spending. The non-defense spending will need to be reduced by approximately one-third. Many GOP congress members have been proposing entitlement cuts in addition to work requirements. There is really no way to avoid such cuts with such a large overall cut in non-defense spending. Social Security is probably off the table unless there is courage enough to raise the age requirements. Medicare - Medical so every state will be Mississippi? Tough decisions and so - far there is little evidence that congress is up to that.

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          Dave in Houston

          Nobody has proposed legislation cutting entitlements. I wish they would, actually, or at least reforming them.

          There's been talk, but no actual proposals for cuts.

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    2. Luigi

      The world has indeed changed since Social Security was enacted in 1935. For example, American life expectancy has increased from 61 to 79 - precisely why we need the entitlement reforms you disparage. The program was never untended to to fund retirement lasting this long in such a vast scale. Time to increase the eligibility age by a couple-few years, and ideally tie it to a life expectancy index going forward so we don’t have to keep having this same debate.

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  6. Dougrhon

    The GOP, even the "crazies" seem to have learned the lesson that there is nothing to be gained either politically or substantively by allowing the Democrats to burn them to the ground over spending cuts. The Democrats, being led by idiots and a doddering old man who was basically an idiot even when at his best, seem to have no idea how to make a different play. As someone who is center-right, it just kills me that the Democrats remain in power because the Republicans can't nominate anyone normal despite a huge bench of decent candidates. I hope that changes before we all go down.

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    Bill B

    Yeah... another round in the Democratic Party of asking 'can't no one here play this game?'.

    The disconnect between debt, deficits and revenue proceeds apace among Republicans. Ideologically trained to self-immolate if raising taxes on the donor class are mentioned they are only left with threats to bring down the country. And of course they largely go after those programs for the poor and needy families that will keep growing because their abortion policies demand virtue without compassion.

    Republicans have been playing this hypocritical game of "fiscal rectitude" for a long time and it just seems odd that Americans keep falling for it.

    My wife has just shown me a sign that reads;

    "At this point if a clown invited me into the woods I'd just go".

    Watching this circus I understand the sentiment.

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  8. Nemmerle924

    The GOP is winning the politics of...almost everything everywhere. They are advancing in utter disarray.

    It is often hard to see how broadly the recent changes in the political landscape favor conservatism. The cultural backlash against the Woke (colleges toning it down, the Bud Light boycott, Pro-Life policy, anti-grooming backlash) and the gradual decline of any political strength on the Left in governing, unpopularity of its leaders (do they have ANYONE as popular as DeSantis? The Left doesnt even like Gavin Newsom very much).

    The radical progressive policy (destroy norms, delegitimize institutions, politicize everything, call everyone you disagree with racist or Nazi) is as toxic with the mainstream as Trump is. Maybe more so, because Trump is a distant, marginal figure today, and the woke nonsense is in their face every day. The backlash is not just coming, it's HERE.

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    1. Fudrock

      I think you overstate the influence of the “woke” contingent of the party, but it’s understandable, as it’s as convenient to the conservative narrative as MAGA is to the left’s.

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  9. Token Liberal

    I wonder if Biden is looking back at the 90s? Clinton was elected in 92. Gingrich and Company won the house in 94. Clinton and Gingrich cut spending and reformed welfare. Clinton easily re-elected in 96. If people want government spending to get under control, well now it is. No need for a new president on those grounds.

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    1. Dougrhon

      I don't think Biden is capable of looking back at anything. If he is it's probably the 70's.

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    JohnF

    This will not end well. McCarthy was only able to get 218 votes because he made concessions to the far-right fringe and because the moderates in swing districts never believed this bill would make it past the Senate. If he compromises at all, he stands to lose the Gaetz's, Massie's, and Roy's in the House. If he doesn't, the bill doesn't make it through the Senate. If it comes back from the Senate with significant amendments, he then has to deal with a divided caucus to try to get those amendments through and he has the same struggle to get to 218 on the GOP side. Meanwhile, if he decides to go bipartisan and pass a bill with Democrats instead of the Freedom Caucus, he will immediately face challenges to the speakership.

    Then, when the government shuts down, both he and Biden are going to have to explain why work requirements were worth the resulting problems.

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      Charlie

      "he made concessions to the far-right fringe"

      And critical special interests -- the ethanol lobby!

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