The Underdog

Biden’s reelection chances are worse than you think.

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179
President Joe Biden. (Photo by Mark Makela/Getty Images.)

Who would win a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump if the election were held today?

“Biden, probably,” a fool might say.

Believing that he’d prevail isn’t the foolish part. I agree that Biden would be more likely than not to win, although he’s no better than a 60/40 favorite. And 40 percent odds come through all the time.

The foolish part is giving a moment’s thought to a pointless question. “Who cares? The election won’t be held today” is the correct answer.

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  1. Ian Markham

    According to a recent episode of the Daily podcast, given the relatively fixed status of the electoral college (there are fewer purple states - Ohio and Florida are really Republican and Virginia will be Democrat), this entire election comes down to Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin. They claimed for the Republicans to win, they would have to get all three, while the Democrats would win if they got just one. Is this analysis just misguided?

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  2. Nadinedemartino

    Question: Is this the best both parties can do? ...... apparently they think so. One aspect I have not yet heard discussed (on the GOP side) is what kind of staff/cabinet, etc. would work in a Trump administration in the future? His current cast of cronies and characters does not bode well. He has declared that Mike Pence would not be VP .... is he making this statement because he doesn't want to have to face a public rejection by MP? He was fortunate to have some savvy, talented team members previously, but another term wouldn't attract any such talent. Stay tuned, it's going to be a bumpy road.

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  3. Dougrhon

    I think if Trump went completely silent on the insanity, actually became a statesman and produced glossy commercials that highlighted the positive economics etc. of his term, then enough people could forget or tamp down memories of the craziness to prefer him over the 82 year old Biden and the nincompoop Harris. But I feel comfortable saying there is ZERO percent chance this happens. Therefore Trump is toxic and most certainly cannot win. BUT what you say is true enough that those who prefer the Democrats but who secretly are supporting Trump for the nomination because he is easier to beat are playing with fire and behaving incredibly irresponsibly. I think most "normie" Americans have simply integrated the craziness of our times that the leading contenders are a man who will be 86 when his term is up vs. a lunatic insult comic. I don't know if we will ever get back to normal again but it would take a candidate and then leader who pushes back against the insanity and declares for some of the normal virtues (decency, humility, courtesy etc.) that have gone by the wayside. I don't know if we will live to see it but I hope so.

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  4. Sjsarich

    As long as MSM continues to act as the Democrat Party’s propaganda tool the chances are good that Biden will cruise to reelection. There is no better proof of their fealty than the recent Correspondence Dinner where gleeful shots were taken at Tucker Carlson were lobbed with regularity but the demise of misogynist Don Lemon went unmentioned.
    Trump was skewered for drinking a glass of water with two hands, using a handrail to walk down a slick ramp and had his mental acuity questioned on a regular basis. Biden? Well the list of his stumbles, bumbles and gaffes are merely reported as minor incidents.
    “Biden, Biden he’s our man if he can’t do it…Kamala can???”

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  5. Scianti7

    The prospect of Biden v Trump 2.0 is disheartening to say the least.

    It is very difficult for me to understand how someone who published a statement saying "they should revoke the U.S. Constitution" could poll so high or even be considered a candidate. I cannot fathom the various people who still refuse to say they won't vote for him. The job is defending & upholding the Constitution, he already said he wants it revoked so he can be in power. How can it not be crystal clear what he'll be about?

    I actually think it's a choice between continuing our Constitutional democracy or whatever crapshow we end up with when Trump gets his way. I guess a large number of his supporters (& people passively willing to vote for him) aren't familiar with ALL of history.

    I don't like that Biden is so old. But I don't think a second term will lead to the end of the Constitution (as Trump has publicly said he desires). Furthermore I don't think a President Harris would revoke the Constitution either. Simply because she hasn't said that, or anything like it, ever. Because what person with any shred of wisdom or decency would say that?

    I don't think anyone should give a moment of serious thought to anyone who has said "revoke the Constitution." That isn't a joke, or exaggeration. And that "revolution" won't look anything like the American Revolution or the system that they created. It'll be more like the French Reign of Terror. Trump is very Robespierre/Commitee of Public Safety.

    Lord have mercy on us all.

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    1. Kentucky Girl

      I am with you 100%!

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  6. Avatar photo
    Jak41592

    Where I agree with you: Biden is 80. He'll be 82. He sounds weaker now than he did in 2021. I listened to Biden's schtick at the media dinner this weekend; him slurring his words (as is common for 80 year olds). I was curious: was Biden like this at the start of his presidency? Answer: no. The first four minutes of his state of the union felt completely different: he was firmer, smoother and better at speaking. The office is clearly weakening Biden (as it has weakened every single man who has led the office since Washington). On whether Biden has dementia: I think not. My grandfather, recently passed, had dementia: he did not remind me of Biden. My grandmother is alive and HAS dementia: she does not remind me of Biden. Who he does remind me of? My 91 year old grandfather who is with it, sharp as a tack, but struggles with his speech (he too slurs his words).

    Is an 80 year old commander and chief ideal? Of course not. Is he capable of doing the job? I think so; we've suffered worse absentee presidents than Biden, and the job is beyond any human to perform anyway. The more important thing for Biden is for him to pick his staff well. It is a crucial political weakness, that I agree on.

    Where I disagree is Biden's purpose. It's simple: stop Trump. It's not a coincidence that Biden first mentioned that we are in a battle for the "Soul of America" in his announcement speech. Biden is prepping for a fight against Trump. His goal is to beat Trump and this time ensure he never comes back. That's it; that's Biden's job. It's also a job I think a plurality (at least) of the American people will join him on. We saw in 2022 that defeating Republican extremism was a convincing message: I think it will be in '24 with Trump actually on the ballot.

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    1. Dougrhon

      I think you meant Biden's purpose is "Stop Trump." You wrote "stop Biden."

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        Jak41592

        living proof even young people can have dumb moments

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  7. Mark Holmlund

    It will be interesting to see if the expiration of the TJCA (aka the Trump tax cuts) at the end of 2025 figures in the 2024 election debate, particularly if it’s Biden vs. Trump. The corporate tax cuts were made permanent in the legislation, so if nothing is done in ‘25 we’re talking higher individual rates, the standard deduction and estate tax exemption cut in half, the elimination of the SALT limitation, and an increase in the amount of mortgage debt whose interest is tax deductible. This after the debt ceiling increase has likely been fought over not once but twice. Hoo boy.

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    1. Mark Holmlund

      I can easily see Trump actively campaigning against the permanence of the tax cuts that are named after him.

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  8. Tommaj60

    Monticello Jan. 6. 16.
    if a nation expects to be ignorant & free, in a state of civilisation, it expects what never was & never will be. the functionaries of every government have propensities to command at will the liberty & property of their constituents. there is no safe deposit for these but with the people themselves; nor can they be safe with them without information. where the press is free and every man able to read, all is safe.

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    CJ

    Trump absolutely could win in 2024, and I think both the Democratic leadership and the rank-and-file understand that well. I have a college friend who is permanent staff at the DNC HQ since 2019 and I've seen him field questions about this repeatedly ever since it became clear Biden was running again. The Democratic apparatus has plenty of PTSD from 2016 and 1/6/2021 still floating around, and it will be a long time before they take victory for granted again.

    Trying to predict where the electorate will be at a year from now is tough, but Biden's absolutely gonna have an uphill fight against Trump. And given what we've all gone through the last few years, there could easily be another "Black Swan" event where the handling of it really impacts people's personal lives and drives opinions in unexpected directions. But I think Trump will have just as tough of a fight for all the reasons we know, and pretty much regardless of what happens over the next year I think the Dems will be wildly more united behind Biden than the GOP will be behind Trump. I'm hoping that's really what moves what needle.

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      Jeff Younger

      It would be great if this time around, Democrats didn’t pump Trump up in the primaries thinking he’d be easier to beat in the general. While that assumption may be true, what of the Dems are going to lose regardless? Wouldn’t any other Republican be better for this country - and the rest of the world - than Trump? I’m a never-Trump Republican, and I don’t understand why anyone supports him at this point. But many people do. If he gets the nomination and it’s him vs Biden amidst a recession, just enough people may hold their nose and vote for the Bad Orange Man, and no one aside from the cult of Trump should be hoping for that.

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        CJ

        "Wouldn’t any other Republican be better for this country - and the rest of the world - than Trump?"

        I'm not convinced Trump would actually be worse for America than DeSantis. DeSantis has all of Trump's bull-seeing-red blind rage but is
        1) Far more effective at metering out vengeance to his perceived enemies list (which like Trump will inevitably include almost anyone normal, left or right, since DeSantis accepts criticism as well as Trump does)
        2) Far less coherent as a representative of America on the world stage
        3) Just as stupid and self-centered as Trump because he thinks he can ride right-wing-populism to the White House (he can't) without giving a shit to those who get stepped on trying to build his street cred

        They'd BOTH be disasters as Presidents. But I actually think DeSantis might be worse. That being said, I don't think Democrats will touch the GOP presidential primary in any meaningful sense. That lesson was learned.

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  10. RaoD

    I think Trump is a slight favorite as I project forward.

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