Handicapping the 2024 Senate Map

Prepare for a real battle for control of the upper chamber next year.

By and
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Happy Monday! Just four more days until you can start openly listening to Christmas music without fear of reprisals from the holiday police.

Up to Speed

  • Former first lady Rosalynn Carter died Sunday at her Georgia home at the age of 96. In a statement, Jimmy Carter, 99, called her “my equal partner in everything I ever accomplished,” who “gave me wise guidance and encouragement when I needed it.” The former president entered hospice care in February; the former first lady had entered hospice care on Friday after a May diagnosis of dementia. The two were married for 77 years.
  • President Joe Biden, who turns 81 today, will hold court this afternoon for the White House’s annual pardoning of the Thanksgiving turkeys. As he does every year, the president will spend the holiday in Nantucket with his family.
  • Meanwhile, Biden’s poll numbers continue to droop: The latest NBC News presidential poll, released Sunday, found low-water marks for his approval and his strength in a potential rematch against Donald Trump. The former president led Biden 46 percent to 44 percent in the poll—a result within the margin of error, but the worst showing for him yet in NBC News’ polling.
  • Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who entered the fiscal quarter unexpectedly low on cash, raised $2 million across five Florida fundraisers last week, Axios reported Friday.
  • Former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley got a surprise presidential endorsement Friday from a major Iowa GOP activist: Marlys Popma, the former executive director of the state party and former president of Iowa Right to Life. “I was an undecided voter when I walked in here today, and I am no longer an undecided voter,” she told Haley from the crowd at an event in Newton. “And I just want to tell Nikki that I wholeheartedly support you.”

Sketching Out the Senate Map for 2024

Sen. Joe Manchin talks with Sen. Jon Tester as they arrive for a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing on October 31, 2023, in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
Sen. Joe Manchin talks with Sen. Jon Tester as they arrive for a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing on October 31, 2023, in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Obscured by the day-to-day of the 2024 battle for the White House is another political showdown brewing between Democrats and Republicans: The race for control of the United States Senate.

The Democrats are defending a narrow 51-seat majority, owed to the fact the Senate’s three independents caucus with their party. The GOP, therefore, would only need to flip two seats in 2024 to recapture the majority—or one, if the Republican presidential nominee wins the White House and his or her vice president can cast tie-breaking votes as the president of the Senate.

Sounds doable, right? Well, that’s what Republicans thought leading up to the 2022 midterm elections.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    “Happy Monday! Just four more days until you can start openly listening to Christmas music without fear of reprisals from the holiday police.”

    That is false! December 1st. There must be space between Thanksgiving and Christmas. We should avoid all suggestion of crowding out the Thanksgiving holiday with Christmas decorations.

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  2. Pundette

    Nope. Dream on, Republicans. The Dems have secured their permanent majority, and they didn't even need to flood the country with soon-to-be-enfranchised illegal aliens. Why?

    Q: What are your plans to reduce inflation and over-regulation and spur on the economy?
    A: Abortion.

    Q: How should we deal with fighting wars in Europe and the Mideast and fend off a possible front in Taiwan? A: Abortion

    Q: What is your plan for dealing with the fiscal cliff posed by our reluctance to address entitlement reform?
    A: Abortion.

    Q: How can the country return to energy independence?
    A: Abortion.

    Q: What can we do about our open borders and how can we create a stable immigration policy?
    A: Abortion.

    Q: Crime and homelessness are rampant in the streets of our major cities. What is your solution?
    A: Abortion.

    Q: Health care costs have skyrocketed and are the leading cause of personal bankruptcies. Solution?
    A: Abortion.

    Q: Drug addiction? Fentanyl poisonings? Gun violence? Anything?
    A: Abortion.

    Q: Infrastructure? Roads? Highways? Bridges? Airports?
    A: Abortion.

    Q: Our children can't read or do simple math, and we've fallen behind other developed nations.
    A: Abortion.

    Q: Climate change? Domestic terrorism? International terrorism? Anything?
    A: Abortion.

    Let's face it. Republicans are toast.

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  3. Avatar photo
    O.W.L.

    Have Democrats in red states thought about reaching out to never Trump former Republicans who have been driven out of office, and offering to support them if they run as conservative Democrats? Somebody like Will Hurd?

    Rick Wilson is probably raking in too much money but it sure would be nice if, instead of yapping about Trump, he stepped up and helped the FL Democratic party rebuild and recruit a good solid "Red Dog" former R to run as a Democrat against Rick Scott.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Show Jay Janney the 🚪!

      What's in it for Wilson?
      He's in it for the money.

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  4. Coyneric

    WV is a goner for the Dems. But never forget 2012, when the GOP also had a similarly overwhelmingly favorable map and were set to pick up the Senate....then McCaskill kept her seat in Missouri, and Dems picked Indiana and NORTH DAKOTA. I can't shake this hunch that Dems will surprisingly pick up one (TX or FL), and keep OH and MT.

    GOP ain't picking up PA, Casey is a well-liked moderate Dem incumbent who stays FAR from woke identity politics.

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  5. Hikingguy

    Trump is a fascist dick. Who cares what he thinks about decent people?

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  6. Avatar photo
    Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

    Thank you for this useful snapshot!

    You mention Texas as a state which might show up on your 2024 radar screen as a serious race. I presume you're referring to the general election — in which case I'm curious who you project, Messrs. Egger & Drucker, as possible competitors for the Democratic Party's nomination. I presume you'd be looking mostly at Dem big-city mayors or Congress-critters, since the bench of successful Democrats who've won a statewide election since the 1994 reelection of then-Lt. Gov. (and later George W. Bush supporter) Bob Bullock REMAINS EMPTY.

    If there's a plausible challenger to Ted Cruz in the GOP primary waiting in the wings, I'd love to support him or her (since Ted Cruz has been dead to me since Jan. 6, 2021). But to the best of my knowledge that is currently a null set.

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    1. Acre00

      It took until Jan 6 to write off Cruz? He showed his true colors in 2015 and wasn't exactly hiding them well prior to then either

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      1. Avatar photo
        Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

        "Dead to me" is at a far extreme. There are lots of politicians and other public figures for whom I lack respect, or who I disagree vehemently with, but would still cross the street to pee upon if they were on fire.

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  7. Ohio Reader

    One of the lessons of the 2022 elections is that incumbency is powerful. Despite that year's economy featuring 9% inflation, Republicans in Georgia could not dislodge Raphael Warnock from the Senate. I am hoping Matt Dolan can unseat Sherrod Brown in Ohio, but we'll see. Nevada always seems to be fool's gold for Republicans. Finally, Maricopa County, AZ, needs to count its votes faster.

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  8. John

    “The happiest person anywhere in America right now is jimmy carter”. A statement so incredibly hateful and ignorant it’s inconceivable anyone would think it. Recent example of Donald’s twisted and perverse mind. Carter was a good man and a good president.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Show Jay Janney the 🚪!

      Carter got thumped in 1980, because he was widely seen as an ineffective president. I recall editorials "Is the presidency too big for everyone", trying to excuse his weaknesses.

      Trump's statement says nothing about Carter as a person, just as a politician. And what he posted about Rosalynn's passing was professional, unlike Bill Clinton's. Most Republicans I know think Jimmy Carter is a good person, a high character person. I honestly cannot think of anyone in my circle critical of his character. Some MSM seem more critical of his character than his opponents.

      I'm not voting for Trump, but he was saying Biden is worse than Carter. That's a matter of opinion, but clearly fair game during election season.

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      1. John

        Jay. I believe he got thumped because of the Iran hostage crises. Without that Carter may have had a second term. And he was successful in bringing the hostages home before leaving office. But I obviously can’t know that, it’s an opinion. And Reagan was a good leader. Amazing two good and decent presidents.
        Have a good turkey day. John

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    2. Kellyg2479

      John - Jimmy Carter was even thought by the Democrats at the time a sub-par President. Which he was. As a human being, there probably has been none better.

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      1. Hikingguy

        I was there. I do not recall much noise from Dems about Jimmy being a sup-par President.

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      2. John

        I disagree. He was a nuclear engineer if I recall. He was honest and did his best for America. There was recently a special on the Iran hostages. His concern and effort in freeing them is worth watching. He was well thought of when in office. I guess people wanted a cowboy actor in the White House in 1980 rather than a scientifically knowledgeable individual. At least the actor was also a decent man and president. So different from the unstable and hateful Republican candidate we have today

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    3. Avatar photo
      JohnM.

      He was (and still is) a good man.

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      1. John

        Absolutely.

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  9. Avatar photo
    PJ

    "The NRSC is backing former Navy Seal Tim Sheehy in the Republican primary"

    They are making him look like a pathetic loser. Cannot wait to see what comes out of the smoke with him.

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  10. Avatar photo
    Paul Britton

    I’m guessing that Jimmy Carter is NOT the happiest person in the country right now. Bad timing, Mr. Trump.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Show Jay Janney the 🚪!

      He posted that prior to Rosalynn's death. Did you not read the date on it?
      I'd encourage you to compare his tribute to Rosalynn to Bill Clinton's, and tell me which one you think seems better.

      And no, I'm not MAGA nor am I voting for Trump.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Paul Britton

        Jay -- I knew that, but Mrs. Carter was already in hospice care. Not a happy time for a loving husband.

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        1. Russell J

          I interpreted that it was meant as an insult to both Presidents and comes from a deep insecurity rather than having much to do with Mrs. Carter. Trump builds his happiness on comparisons to others. I never liked Carter’s political commentary but he carried himself respectfully most often, didn’t sulk about losing and it is easy to imagine he found happiness in many places apart from fame. Trump knows deep down that he is far worse but he must humiliate the competitors to feel superior for just a passing moment. And the timing is just horrendous.

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          1. Avatar photo
            Paul Britton

            I agree with you.

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