What to Expect on Election Night

Happy Tuesday! Today is—at long last—the day. And if you had enough of the cable news election graphics sometime in early 2023, then we have the election night destination for you: Join us instead for a special, three-hour election night livestream! Usually, Dispatch Live is exclusively for Dispatch members—but we’re making this special episode available to all our readers, so feel free to invite your friends and family! 

We’ve put together a stacked lineup for the night—including Megan McArdle, Stephanie Slade, David Frum, and Sharon McMahon. They’ll join your favorite Dispatchers to track the state-by-state updates, break down the results, and keep calm through the uncertainty. See you tonight at 10 p.m. ET!

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

• Vice President Kamala Harris wrapped up her campaign in Pennsylvania on Monday, making stops in Scranton, Allentown, and Reading—where she did some door-knocking—before concluding with a star-studded rally in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump made stops in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Grand Rapids, Michigan, where he hosted his final rally of the cycle—as he did in both 2016 and 2020. Harris will spend election night at her alma mater, Howard University, in Washington, D.C., while Trump will hold an event in West Palm Beach, Florida. 
• The New York Times tech union—which represents some 600 software engineers, data analysts, and other employees who work on the back end of the Times’ website and apps and on the business side of the newspaper—went on strike on Monday, just one day before the election. The Tech Guild, in negotiating its first contract since 2022, has made a number of demands that include “just cause” termination agreements, pay raises, a four-day work week, and a more comprehensive health care package, among other more specific, and perhaps even illegal, proposals. 
• The Supreme Court on Monday agreed to hear a case about Louisiana’s disputed congressional district maps, though the decision will come after the current election cycle. Following the 2020 census, which showed that one-third of Louisiana’s population is black, the Republican-controlled state Legislature redrew the congressional maps but included just one majority-black district of six districts. Federal courts ruled the maps likely violated the Voting Rights Act, and the Legislature in January redrew them to include a second majority-black district, though the new map is now being challenged by a group of Louisiana voters who argue it amounts to a racial gerrymander. In May, the court ruled in favor of using the current districts for this year’s election. 
• Pro-Western Moldovan President Maia Sandu on Sunday won a second term in the second round of a presidential runoff. Sandu won 55 percent of the vote, beating Alexandr Stoianoglo, who has advocated for a closer relationship with Russia. The election followed votes last month in the first round of the presidential election and on a referendum to enshrine Moldova’s intention to join the European Union, which passed by a slim margin. All three elections were plagued by concerns over Russian interference and vote-buying. 
• Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz formally notified the United Nations on Monday that Israel was withdrawing its recognition of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA)—which has previously been linked to Hamas in Gaza—after the Israeli Knesset passed legislation forbidding the agency from operating in Israel and Israeli government officials from coordinating with it. Israeli officials told the U.N. that it would continue working with other international agencies and other U.N. agencies to provide aid to Gaza, and it’s not clear what the actual operational impact will be for UNRWA in the short term. 
• The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Western officials suspect Russia was responsible for planting two incendiary devices on cargo planes bound for the U.S. and Canada. The devices were reportedly shipped via DHL cargo planes and ignited at DHL hubs in Leipzig, Germany, and Birmingham, England. European authorities have arrested several suspects they say are part of a larger Russian plot to target cargo and passenger aircraft. The two devices—plus at least two others—were an effort to test how to get them onto planes bound for North America, they said. 
• A U.S. soldier who was critically injured earlier this year while working to construct the temporary aid pier in Gaza died on October 31, Army officials said Monday. Sgt. Quandarius Davon Stanley, 23, had been medically retired from his unit due to the injuries he sustained this summer, which the Pentagon said were not combat-related. He was one of three soldiers injured constructing the $230 million pier, which was only functional for less than a month. The other two soldiers suffered only minor injuries.
• Boeing machinists voted on Monday to approve a new contract, ending a two-month strike on the West Coast. Union members approved the new contract—which would give them a 38 percent hike over four years, plus a $12,000 ratification bonus—with 59 percent voting in favor. The strikers had previously rejected two proposals from Boeing. 

What to Expect When You’re Expecting A Close Election 

Happy (or whatever emotion you prefer) Election Day from the crew at TMD! All the analysis, projections, and predictions are now mostly done—all that’s left is to do is vote, and then, crucially, count. 

As you’ve probably heard ad nauseam at this point, it’s possible and even likely that we will not know who won the presidential election by the time most sane people are in bed tonight. But there’s lots we can and will know—about when voting finishes, about how and when states count votes, and what happens if the margins are tight—by Wednesday morning that could give us a sense of where this thing is headed and what might happen next, for those of you not breathing into a paper bag or rooting for SMOD. 

Seven states will likely decide the next occupant of the White House: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. So when in the night will we hear from our first voters in those states? Georgia—which took its sweet time counting in 2020—will be the first of the swing states to close its polls, at 7 p.m. ET. Because counties there are allowed to start counting early and mail-in votes on Election Day, there will probably be large, and likely blue-leaning tranches of votes ready to report shortly after polls close—likewise in North Carolina, whose polls close at 7:30.  

By 8 p.m., we’ll have some early indications from the first hour of returns as to how each candidate …

As a non-paying reader, you are receiving a truncated version of The Morning Dispatch. Our 1,161-word item on how to follow election night is available in the members-only version of TMD.

That’s All Folks 

One couple in Reading, Pennsylvania, got a surprise visitor at their doorstep Monday evening: Vice President Kamala Harris. The Democratic nominee spent part of her campaign’s waning hours knocking on doors in likely the most important swing state of the election. Today’s vote will prove whether Harris’ effort reflected a campaign leaving it all out on the field in a victorious bid or the final scrambling of a failed candidacy. 

Harris and former President Donald Trump closed the book on their respective campaigns yesterday with a flurry of stops in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Michigan, concluding a frenzied race after Joe Biden’s exit in July. But the chaos ultimately gave way to remarkable stability in the polls, which are now as tight as they’ve ever been. 

With nothing left to do but wait for returns to come in, most election data wonks have resigned themselves to the fact that the race is just that close. “Nationwide or across the key battlegrounds collectively, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald J. Trump leads by more than a single percentage point,” the New York Times’ Nate Cohn noted Monday. 

The margins on both individual and national survey averages have become so narrow that analysts have begun discussing the risk of …

As a non-paying reader, you are receiving a truncated version of The Morning Dispatch. Our 1,381-word item on the two candidates’ closing pitches is available in the members-only version of TMD.

Worth Your Time

• As we prepare ourselves for whatever comes next, it’s worth remembering that for millions of people around the world, this country is still the gold standard. “As the 2024 presidential election nears its close, rhetoric is flying. Some describe America and Americans as ‘garbage,’ ‘dipshits,’ ‘weird,’ and even suggest that some people need to be ‘shot,’ Others claim that, in a matter of months, America will no longer resemble the country we know today,” James Pindell reported from a naturalization ceremony for the Boston Globe. “Francine Mukungilwa can’t wait to be part of it. With a broad smile, Mukungilwa feverishly waved a small American flag jumping out of her seat during a rendition of ‘America the Beautiful’ at an official naturalization ceremony last week in Methuen. She is now one of America’s newest citizens, joining a nation of immigrants. ‘I love America. America welcomed me with grace and opportunities I couldn’t find anywhere else,’ said Mukungilwa, a day care provider who lives in Lowell with her eight children. … Melvin Wleh, 34, of Dracut by way of Liberia, offered the same reason after 13 years in the country. ‘I consider myself an American, but now I get to do the most American thing, which is to vote,’ he said.” 

Presented Without Comment

The Verge: Elon Musk’s PAC Admits $1 Million Voter Giveaways Aren’t ‘Random’

Also Presented Without Comment

CNN: Joe Rogan Endorses Trump on Eve of the Election

Also Also Presented Without Comment

Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner warns against intimidating voters on Election Day: 

Anybody who thinks it’s time to play militia: F around and find out. Anybody who thinks it’s time to insult, to deride, to mistreat, to threaten people: F around and find out.

In the Zeitgeist

It’s been a big year for women’s sports, from Caitlin Clark’s dominant final season with the Iowa Hawkeyes and record-breaking season in the WNBA to U.S. women performing so well at the Olympics that if they were a country unto themselves, they would have come in third in the overall medal count. 

With more energy than ever behind women’s leagues, there’s a new one in town: Last week, Justine Siegal, the first woman to coach in Major League Baseball, announced the formation of the Women’s Pro Baseball League, coming in 2026. Women, it might be said, might once again have a league of their own. 

Toeing the Company Line

• In the newsletters: Kevin argued (🔒) the abortion issue isn’t going away after the election, the Dispatch Politics crew covered Harris’ college tour ahead of Election Day, and Nick argued America is getting what it deserves. 
• On the podcasts: Sarah and David check in on the very American cases the court will hear this term on Advisory Opinions.  
• On the site: Steve reports on how the legacy of January 6 may come to matter in this election, Stirewalt reflects on why polling is different than voting and why polls always get the outcome at least a little bit wrong, and several Dispatch staff members offer a primer with everything you need to know about election procedures in the swing states.