Could It Be? A Policy Debate in the GOP?

There has been much optimism among Democrats that the most recent spate of Supreme Court decisions will have a similar effect on the electorate as the court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade did in the 2022 midterms.

Certainly there will be some benefits to Democrats with voters frustrated by the justices’ swatting down of President Biden’s bid to forgive student loan debt. That could be significant especially in Senate races where the blue team needs to crank up base turnout for moderate candidates in competitive contests in swing states. Of course, the decision, insofar as it lingers in the public consciousness, cuts the other way, too. 

There are plenty of voters who may have trouble with the overall direction of the Republican Party under the leadership of Donald Trump who still think that the court was right to reject a $600 billion gambit from the incumbent. The same goes for the ruling on the website designer who didn’t want to render her services for a same-sex wedding. It will stir up the left, but also please the Trump-skeptical right that sees the new direction of the high court as a lasting good of a flawed presidency.

On ending affirmative action in college admissions, the decision seems very much in line with public sentiment. Even among black voters the policies were intended  to benefit.

If the Supreme Court’s 2023 decisions are, at best, a mixed bag for Democrats, though, the aftershocks of the Dobbs case will still be pronounced in 2024. The president and vice president are leaning in on the abortion issue, counting on it to further pry women away from the GOP. And there’s lots of reason to believe that it will work.

Republicans still do well with married women, even as their share of unmarried women’s votes has fallen to less than a third. But the combination of the Dobbs case and the many, many allegations against Trump, including a recent verdict in a sexual abuse case, could help widen the gender gap. There’s not much farther for Republicans to fall when it comes to younger and unmarried women, but even a small dip with wives and mothers could be catastrophic.

GOPers, keenly aware of this, have been scrambling for an answer on the issue. Or, in some cases, a non-answer. Certainly, the frontrunner has been flummoxed. Trump has so far been unable to find an answer that will shore up his support among social conservatives in places like Iowa and Georgia without alienating his more socially moderate, secular supporters, particularly in New Hampshire.

This has created an opening for former Vice President Mike Pence and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Both draw a much harder line than Trump on the subject, and both are more aligned on the topic with the Republican rank and file than he is. Add to that number South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who is up in Iowa with an ad his campaign dubbed “Sanctity of Life.”

“As president, I will sign the most pro-life legislation that reaches my desk,” Scott says in the spot. “Our immediate priority should be passing a national 15-week limit on abortion while we support Republican-led states that do even more to protect life.” 

That puts Scott on the same page as Pence, who is also backing a federal ban on elective abortions after the 15th week. Both oppose Trump’s position that the issue should be left to the states to decide.

While Democrats may relish the idea of litigating a federal abortion ban next fall, there are a couple of reasons for Republicans to get behind the plan. First, it’s broadly in concert with national public opinion on the issue, which tilts heavily pro-choice for pregnancies in the first three months and then shifts sharply pro-life in the second and third trimesters. Second, it’s not like Republicans are going to be able to duck the issue next year, whomever they choose.

If Scott and Pence can succeed in setting the bar at a ban after the first trimester, it would hurt Republicans in more socially moderate states. But so too would continuing to have Republican state lawmakers in a bidding war to see who can enact the most restrictive standard possible. While it would not seem so to many Democrats, the 15-week proposal represents a compromise position between the small, intense minorities on both sides who take absolutist positions.

The narrative around the 2024 Republican race has been, understandably, all about Trump the man. But Republicans have profound issues to deal with beyond the rap sheet and character of the former president. Where the party stands on the Ukraine war, immigration, entitlements, and many other issues is very much up for debate. But on no subject is the party more urgently in political need of a defensible consensus than on abortion.

The shift to contrasting opinions on those subjects in the weeks to come will be one of the signs that Republicans are facing up to challenges that go deeper than just the foibles of its frontrunner.

Holy croakano! We welcome your feedback, so please email us with your tips, corrections, reactions, amplifications, etc. at STIREWALTISMS@THEDISPATCH.COM. If you’d like to be considered for publication, please include your real name and hometown. If you don’t want your comments to be made public, please specify.

STATSHOT

Biden Job Performance
Average approval: 42.8%
Average disapproval: 51%
Net score: -8.2 points 

Change from one week ago: ↑ 2.6 points                        
Change from one month ago: ↑ 5.4 points

[Average includes: Emerson: 41% approve-51% disapprove; NPR/PBS/Marist: 47% approve-49% disapprove; Quinnipiac: 42% approve-54% disapprove; USA Today/Suffolk: 40% approve-54% disapprove; Fox News: 44% approve-55% disapprove]

Polling Roulette

[CES 2022; David Byler in The Washington Post]

TIME OUT: NOT BOWLING ALONE ANYMORE

GQ: “Jason Belmonte, 39, has never conformed to expectations. When he first alighted on the scene, Belmo, as he’s known to his fans, resembled an alien species: one that bowled with two hands. And not some granny shot, to be clear, but a kickass power move in which he uses two fingers (and no thumb) on his right hand, palms the front of the ball with his left, and then, on his approach, which is marked by a distinctive shuffle step, rocks the ball back before launching it with a liquid, athletic whip, his delivery producing an eye-popping hook, his ball striking the pins like a mini mortar explosion. Not everyone welcomed his arrival. … He’s been called a cheat, told to go back to his native Australia. … But Belmonte never cowered in the face of the criticism, never deviated from his approach, and has now inspired a rising generation of bowlers to emulate his game.”

STRINGENT CRITERIA THINS GOP DEBATE FIELD

Politico: “The GOP primary debate seemed originally like it could result in political fireworks. But with less than two months to go, it is veering toward something far less crowded and consequential. … A stage that was once expected to be as sprawling as it was in the 2016 GOP primary could end up a slimmed-down affair, with the longshots not qualifying and the frontrunner following through on his threats to boycott. … So far, campaigns for Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott and Vivek Ramaswamy are the only ones to say they’ve reached the required 40,000 donors — and the RNC says that figure must include at least 200 unique donors in each of 20 states. … A spokesperson for Pence’s campaign told POLITICO they’re confident he will qualify for the debate. … And it isn’t just fundraising the candidates have to worry about.”

Frontrunners dodge RNC loyalty pledge: New York Times: “Former President Donald J. Trump has not said whether he will sign the pledge. In February, he refused to commit to supporting the eventual nominee. … ‘It would have to depend on who the nominee was.’ But that was before the Republican National Committee made the pledge a debate requirement. Even if he signs, it is unlikely to mean much. He signed the same pledge in 2015 and then reneged on it. … Asked last month whether he would support Mr. Trump in a general election, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida didn’t give a straight answer. Mr. DeSantis vaguely indicated he might make the pledge, saying, ‘You respect the process, and you respect the people’s decisions.’ But he made no commitment.”

Poll: Americans favor early Trump trial: Politico: “According to a new poll commissioned by POLITICO Magazine and conducted by Ipsos, most Americans — including a large number of Republicans, who the former president is currently courting for his 2024 campaign — believe that the trial in the pending federal case against Trump for mishandling classified documents should occur before the GOP primaries and well before the general election. … Significant hurdles exist to such a speedy trial. … But the results, both notable and surprising, could potentially push prosecutors and the presiding judge to move more quickly. … Nearly two-thirds of respondents (62 percent) said that the trial in the pending federal prosecution should take place before the presidential election next November.”

Pence draws his line in the sand: NBC News: “Pence has leaned into his refusal to bend to what Trump wanted that day, setting it up as a key point of contrast. … While Pence is able to carve out a distinctive lane for himself with that approach, he also risks alienating a sizable part of the GOP base that is still loyal to Trump. … Pence told the woman at the [Sioux City, Iowa] Pizza Ranch, ‘No vice president in American history ever asserted the authority that you have been convinced that I had. But I want to tell you, with all due respect … President Trump was wrong about my authority that day, and he’s still wrong.’”

BATTLEGROUND DEMS RAKE IN CASH

NBC News: “Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., raised $5 million in the most recent fundraising quarter as he gears up for another battleground race in 2024. The Montana Democrat ended the quarter on June 30 with more than $10 million in his campaign account, according to fundraising numbers shared first with NBC News. The Tester campaign noted that the haul from April through June is Tester’s best second-quarter fundraising total for a non-election year. Tester’s campaign now also has donations from every county in Montana.”

Everything’s bigger in Texas: Texas Tribune: “U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, raised nearly $6.2 million in roughly the first two months of his campaign against U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas. He also transferred an additional $2.4 million from his House campaign account. … Allred’s second-quarter fundraising cements his formidability as a fundraiser. Cruz’s last Democratic opponent, Beto O’Rourke, was a fundraising juggernaut at the height of the race, but it took him his first three fundraising quarters — nine months — to raise the $6.2 million that Allred collected in 59 days.”

GOP coalesces around Sheehy over Rosendale: The Hill: “Tim Sheehy’s Senate bid in Montana received a boost on Wednesday after Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) endorsed him, adding to the number of top Republicans who have lined up behind his campaign. … The decision by Zinke … comes at the expense of Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.), the other sitting member of Congress from the state. Rosendale has teased a potential campaign in recent weeks. … Zinke’s announcement is the latest show of GOP support for Sheehy. Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte (R) endorsed Sheehy’s bid last week. … Sheehy was a top recruit of Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.”

Army vet preps challenge to Rosen in Nevada: NBC News: “Retired Army Capt. Sam Brown of Nevada, who made an unsuccessful run for Senate in 2022 but amassed grassroots support within the GOP, is likely to soon announce he will challenge Democratic U.S. Sen. Jacky Rosen, who is up for re-election. An invite sent out Wednesday by Brown to potential supporters and obtained by NBC News indicates a July 10 announcement by Brown. … Brown was severely burned after an IED explosion in 2008, while he served in Afghanistan. It left him partially disfigured, and he leaned into that personal experience in his first Senate bid. … Jim Marchant, who promoted former President Donald Trump’s conspiracy theories about the 2020 election results and lost his bid for Nevada secretary of state in 2022, is also running for the GOP Senate nomination.”

DEM PRIMARY FIGHT GROWS UGLIER AS NEW HAMPSHIRE DIGS IN

New York Times: “It was left to [Biden’s] aides to tell the top-ranking D.N.C. members … that South Carolina was the new first-in-the-nation primary. … New Hampshire … has declared that it will vote first anyway, setting up a clash with the D.N.C. that could widen to publicly embarrass Biden — who … would not be on the New Hampshire ballot in this scenario — handing the incumbent president a shocking statewide defeat. … At the same time, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. … has begun a campaign blitz in New Hampshire, where voters and politicians alike are aggrieved over the D.N.C.’s revision of the primary calendar. … Georgia’s new status as an early-voting state is also now in doubt: The spokesperson for the Republican secretary of state … said in a statement that he would not go along with the new Democratic calendar and would keep the established March primary date.”

Wistful Dems imagine an alternate timeline: Politico: “Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer … ruled out running for president next year even if Biden forgoes reelection, but allowed a resounding ‘maybe’ to pursuing the White House down the road. … Whitmer is creating a federal PAC … to boost Biden and congressional candidates next year, offering her a platform for a visible role in the 2024 campaign and a foothold to mount a presidential bid in 2028. … [Whitmer] has helped Biden win Michigan and claimed her own reelection by double-digits … But it’s Harris who’s vice president, a near-lock to be on the ticket again next year and who could, by virtue of her office, ultimately block Whitmer from the nomination. … That’s much to the chagrin of many of those same Democrats who were pushing Whitmer-for-vice president in 2020 and think her moment to run for president may be next year.” 

BRIEFLY

Geographic polarization on the rise as blue states grow bluer, red states redder—AP

Former Rep. Mondaire Jones will run in New York battleground—Lohud

Boebert challenger raises staggering sum—The Hill

WITHIN EARSHOT: HOMIE 

“Thank you very, very much. Thank you. Thank you.”—Sen. Lindsey Graham grins and bears it while constituents boo him at a Trump rally in South Carolina last weekend. 

MAILBAG

“I had a pretty intense debate with my best friend the other day. We were discussing other candidates we would feel comfortable voting for, and we came to about an equilibrium on the Republican slate: Pretty much anyone other than Trump will do, we’d both go in for DeSantis, Haley, Hurd, etc. We both lean right, especially economically so that was no surprise to me. What WAS surprising was how hard he defended Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the Democratic side. … Personally I’ve never considered RFK a serious candidate myself, he always seemed to be endorsing some pretty wacky ideas and honestly seems far from what I would consider even a Democrat. He seems to have more in common with MAGA conspiratorial types then I guess what you would consider an “average” Democrat OR Republican to be.  So in your opinion, does RFK Jr. have some redeeming qualities that I just can’t see somehow? Something that would make him a decent president, despite what his rhetoric seems to suggest? Is there something my friend is seeing that I can’t?”—Justin Bliley, Washington Court House, Ohio

Kennedy’s appeal is akin to that of Trump’s: An insider who promises to blow the whistle on the other rich and privileged members of the elite. It’s not entirely dissimilar to Ross Perot’s Reform Party movement of the 1990s. Voters who are fed up with what they see as overwhelming corruption and collusion of the people in power are drawn to the idea of a radical disruption. That may end up being a matter of some political significance this time. If Kennedy can really cause trouble for Biden in New Hampshire, it could stir up the same discontentment that fueled Bernie Sanders’ runs of 2016 and 2020. Or, if Kennedy runs as an independent in the general election, he might siphon away lots of votes from both parties. Or, he might be a footnote by this fall. But whatever he is, don’t think about him as a potential president. I’d imagine that’s not what your friend is thinking about, either. Kennedy is a vessel for the disillusionment and frustration of many Americans who are old enough to remember his father and the promise of the 1960s and many of a slightly younger vintage who backed Perot or Trump. Disruption, not statesmanship, is their aim. That’s how conspiratorial thinking works. If something outrageous is true—if the government lied about Vietnam or Nixon’s plumbers burgled the DNC—then what else might be true. Maybe the whole society we live in is built on lies. You can pretty quickly get to some very weird places when you start with “question everything.”

“I love The Dispatch, and am a member and proponent of the work you all do. But the reference to Biden’s ‘awkward’ or ‘nuzzling’ walk off of the MSNBC  stage is distorting at best. Fox News ran a click-bait headline. The interview was concluding, Biden shook Nicole Wallace’s hands and then brought the clip to an end. Are we really so staged for entertainment that we think the President of the Free World can’t walk off of stage when the interview concludes? He needed to stay and wait for the segment to end and the cameras to turn off before talking off? The leader of the free world may have something more important to attend to then waiting for the segment to wrap up before he walks off stage. Fox continues to be a journalistic pandering to their base. And I love The Dispatch (and will continue to love it) but I thought this article was bad form and a bad summation of what happened to Biden. Watching ‘the tape’ does not validate that Biden had an ‘Awkward Exit’ from his MSNBC interview. I watched the video earlier this morning and can say that I was surprised to see a similar summary from The Dispatch as I saw on Fox News (curse their name).”—Justin Bockman, Syracuse, New York

Mr. Bockman, I don’t know what your standard is for a tough journalistic inquiry, but “nuzzling” is a pretty generous term for the game of pattycake that the anchor played with Biden. Which is, of course, why he went there. It’s the same reason Ron DeSantis went on with Tomi Lahren or Kamala Harris went on with NPR at the Essence Festival. Politicians who struggle in interviews look for friendly settings without adversarial questioning. And while it certainly does not fall to me of all people to defend Fox News, the best interview of a top-tier this year so far has been Bret Baier’s questioning of Donald Trump. Trump doubtless thought he was in for something very different, or else he wouldn’t have gone. The results of Trump’s misjudgement were very damaging for him legally and politically. But when you go in for a nuzzling and get one, the least you can do is not get the stage directions wrong. Whatever you think of Biden’s abrupt exit, a person who has done scores and scores of TV interviews since he got to the Senate 50 years ago knows you don’t hop up and walk off. Look at this one from his time as vice president. But, so what if he did? To your point, Biden is the president and this is just one pseudo-interview. Big whoop. Except for the fact that the man is so obviously, profoundly struggling in his efforts to run for re-election. I included the interview performance as just one of a litany of missteps, literal and figurative, for the president. I wrote the piece because it is becoming clearer and clearer that Democrats have underestimated the chances that Biden could fail next year. Just as Republicans can’t pretend that Trump’s mountain of legal and characterological woes won’t be a factor for persuadable voters next year, Democrats had better face facts about how Biden’s age and infirmity weigh down his chances. The country is in a serious bind because of the wishful thinking of partisans. Sometimes my analysis comes down in the same place as Fox News. Sometimes it comes down in the same place as MSNBC. Oftentimes, I am all by my lonesome. And that’s okay. My promise to you is that I will tell you what I’m seeing, not what I’d like to see. I have found over the years that’s the only way I can do my work. I didn’t mean to be cruel to the president, only to call attention to the blinders his campaign and many in his party have put on.

“I’m a Cleveland girl, born and raised, living outside Lynchburg, Virginia. I came to Liberty under the big guy and just never left. In the past couple years, it seems like my neighbors here in Evington have lost their minds. We went from having Denver Riggleman, who was a moderate Republican, to the Fox News [frequent guest], Bob Good, as our representative. I, of course, never voted for him, because he does not represent my views. Do you think VA-5 has the chance of saving itself, or are we doomed? How can we get rid of Bob Good and replace him with someone with sense and the good of the people as their daily aim (not owning the libs.) Thanks!”—Katie Hecker, Evington, Virginia

If you go waaaayyyy back, your district is that of none other than James Madison. “The fighting Fifth” has long been a hotly contested electoral battleground, even including the brutal redistricting fights between Madison and his rival, Patrick Henry. It was also the place where Republicans found their first foothold in the Old Dominion. Every GOP presidential candidate since Dwight Eisenhower has carried the district, even as the Byrd Machine kept segregationist Democrats in the party. But if you go just a little bit back in time, you find a competitive district with notable leaders. When Democrat Tom Periello narrowly won your district on Barack Obama’s coattails, it was clear that the same Charlottesville suburbs that had taken the party from blue to red in the 1950s might take it back to a bluer hue. Republicans got their acts together and nominated Robert Hurt, a former prosecutor, city councilman, delegate, and state senator, who won the seat and served with distinction until he stepped down after three terms of, by all accounts, distinguished service. Since then, the story for the GOP has been summed up in the old saying, “the odds are good, but the good are odd.” Redistricting has made the district easier for Republicans, shifting away from swingier northern counties like Faquier for more MAGA voters in places in the commonwealth’s Southside. It also includes Lynchburg and Liberty University, Good’s former employer. Good’s 2020 victory happened in a most peculiar fashion: He unseated Riggleman in a kind of lash-up convention/election that was done by drive-thru during the pandemic. Since then, Good has made it his job to stay in the good graces of activist voters in the party and looks like a safe bet for a third nomination and a third term in a district that Democrats will likely lose on the presidential level by 15 points or more. But, you live in a truly beautiful place in the world populated by some of the nicest people I’ve ever met outside of West Virginia. Just maybe don’t talk politics with them …

You should email us! Write to STIREWALTISMS@THEDISPATCH.COM with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, wonderful names, recipes and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name—at least first and last—and hometown. Make sure to let me know in the email if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, the natty Nate Moore, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack!

CUTLINE CONTEST: THE AUDACITY OF ‘NOPE’

I was hoping the July cutline contest would get started with an, ahem, bang after an explosively funny June, but I think there were just too many potential jokes to be had in this photo from the inauguration of Donald Trump. It was kind of a medieval painting: a tableau of emotions without a clear narrative. But there was a central figure. The look on former President Barack Obama’s face says so much, including “Damn …”, but only one contestant framed the joke around the 44th president. And that was good enough for the win:

“Barack Obama is paid a visit by the Ghosts of Presidents Future and is not pleased with what he sees.”—Rick Whaley, Portage, Michigan

Winner, Not Just the President, Also a Client Division:

“Before you go—can you recommend a good hair guy around here?”—Steve McCardell, Redding, Connecticut

Winner, Article II Division:

“Pardon me?”—Richard Basuk, New York, New York

Send your proposed cutline for the picture that appears at the top of this newsletter to STIREWALTISMS@THEDISPATCH.COM. We will pick the best entrants for each week and an appropriate reward for the best of this month—even beyond the glory and adulation that will surely follow. Be hilarious, don’t be too dirty, and never be cruel. Include your full name and hometown. Have fun!

HAS HE FLOWN NEAR THE WHITE HOUSE LATELY?

CBS News: “A French fighter jet intercepted a tourist plane over a remote region of France over the weekend, leading the pilot of the small aircraft to throw out more than a dozen bags of suspected drugs, security and air force sources told AFP. One of France’s most modern fighters was sent to check on the single-seated tourist plane over the remote Ardeche region Saturday after it flew through restricted airspace near a nuclear plant and was judged to be maneuvering suspiciously. … The suspected trafficker, a Polish national with a past drugs offense, was arrested after he landed at an airstrip in Lanas in the Ardeche region, the local prosecutor’s office said in a statement on Tuesday. Investigators found around 15 packages on the ground, containing an estimated 66 pounds of a white powder that is being analyzed.”

Chris Stirewalt is a contributing editor at The Dispatch, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, the politics editor for NewsNation, and author of Broken News, a book on media and politics. Nate Moore and Jae Grace contributed to this report.