The Sweep: Beware of Sloppy Polling

Plus: Kari Lake’s canny campaign strategy.

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Kari Lake. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Quotes of the Week: Democrats Dissent on Abortion Closing Argument

James Carville: “A lot of these consultants think if all we do is run abortion spots that will win for us. I don’t think so. It’s a good issue. But if you just sit there and they’re pummeling you on crime and pummeling you on the cost of living, you’ve got to be more aggressive than just yelling abortion every other word.” 

Bernie Sanders: “I am alarmed to hear the advice that many Democratic candidates are getting from establishment consultants and directors of well-funded Super Pacs that the closing argument of Democrats should focus only on abortion. Cut the 30-second abortion ads and coast to victory. I disagree. In my view, while the abortion issue must remain on the front burner, it would be political malpractice for Democrats to ignore the state of the economy and allow Republican lies and distortions to go unanswered.”

These Polls Are Driving Me Insane

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  1. Avatar photo
    Kevin M. James

    My own reaction to that Youngkin ad is strongly negative...but clearly I'm not the intended audience. (Not least because I don't live in Virginia.)

    When a candidate says "I'm not a politician! that makes me the perfect person for the top political job in our state!" what I personally hear is "I'm not a surgeon! that makes me the perfect person to take out your spleen which I'm pretty sure will completely cure you of tuberculosis!"

    (Never mind that at least half the time the "not a politician" claim is preposterously dishonest anyway.)

    And beyond that point, there basically is no content, just happy-talk balloon juice. Is the average voter really incapable of seeing through 30 seconds of dumb and/or meaningless noises?

    Related question: is the average voter really incapable of seeing through 30 seconds of the ominous music/degraded black-and-white video/doom narration that is the typical negative ad?

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    1. Kroneborge

      The difference is that our average politician is more like a doctor from hundreds of years ago that will probably try and cure you with blood letting followed by sawing off your arm when you get gangrene.

      As for advertising, there's a reason why businesses spend billions a year on advertising. It works if done well.

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  2. Avatar photo
    Bel

    “colleges are churning out fish who don’t know they live in the water. “ - because they are filling their aquariums with those kind of fish.

    The study notes that there is scant evidence of campus environment changing political views. Colleges don’t turn conservatives into liberals; students leave much as they arrive. Which raises the question of why the applicant pool is less conservative then it was 30 years ago?

    I would hypothesis that many Gen Zers associate conservative with MAGA and Trump and want nothing to do with that. Also, Gen Z is very casual about the whole gender identity thing. While their parents (me included) are trying to comprehend the concept of non-binary, it’s a “whatever” shoulder shrug from Gen Z.

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  3. Avatar photo
    Collin

    I remember David French writing that parents in red States are not sending their children to elite universities. He states that schools like Auburn and Florida had the highest number of National Merit Scholars. This data suggests that conservatives are still attending college, but they might not be going to elite universities, at the same frequency as other places. Are any numbers provided on the political makeup of non-elite universities?

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    1. Avatar photo
      Bel

      Yes, but FL was included in the elite schools by FIRE in their study. The “elite” cohort was not only Ivies but also Tier 1 Public schools, mostly state flagships like UGA, Penn State, FL…

      The study said Tier 2 and 3 schools are more balanced in terms of political representation on campus.

      I can’t remember if Auburn was in the ~150 schools FIRE included as elite, nor do I remember what Tier they are officially.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Collin

        Thanks for correcting me. I’d be curious to see how the schools of choice break down including all tiers, for conservatives, liberals, and independents. I still suspect that part of this discrepancy is due to clustering and possibly some self-selection bias (picking different schools at the same tier).

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