The Sweep: Can Youngkin Catch McAuliffe in Virginia?

McAuliffe retains a considerable advantage, but there is a reasonable if limited chance of an upset.

By and
63

With Sarah out this week, we’ve got a short-and-sweet Sweep for you today.

Campaign Quick Hits

Father Time Runs Again: Senate Republicans got a piece of good news late last week, when Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley announced he intends to run for an eighth six-year term in 2022. Grassley, who was first elected to the Senate in 1981 and turned 88 this month, is the oldest and longest-tenured GOP senator currently serving. Despite a personal brand that can only be described as curmudgeonly—his regular tweets ranting about how the History Channel never shows any actual history are the stuff of legend—Grassley is a procedural rock in the Senate and a virtual lock in Iowa. The state’s been trending more comfortably red in recent years, but for Republicans trying to claw their way back to a Senate majority, the fewer places they need to play defense, the better. Next question: whether Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson will follow suit and commit to another race.

Ohio Food Fight: Another reason Mitch McConnell is breathing a sigh of relief over the Grassley news: This is not the sort of environment GOP leadership is eager to recruit new candidates for. Just look at the chaotic primaries that have already sprung up in the wake of other GOP retirements this cycle, of which the crown jewel is the race to replace outgoing Sen. Rob Portman in Ohio. Portman is a classic swing-state Republican, a comparative moderate who called the January 6 attack on the Capitol “an attack on democracy itself.” The two leading candidates to replace him, by contrast, are running a race based nearly entirely on who can do the most convincing imitation of Donald Trump. Josh Mandel, the state’s former treasurer, has undergone a personality transplant during his current run, which has focused primarily on supposedly base-thrilling platitudes like “The Palestinians are a people from a fictional land who hate everything we stand for as Christians, Jews, and Americans” and “Democrats are killed by the truth.” His chief rival, Hillbilly Elegy author and hedge-funder J.D. Vance, is trying to run in an “intellectual Trumpism” lane, running a campaign focused on class grievance against cultural and political elites. Mandel accuses Vance of being a closet NeverTrumper, and is currently polling ahead by about 20 points.

2024 Vibe Check: Politico’s Alex Isenstadt has an interesting piece today on Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan’s effort to build a national political apparatus:

Keep reading with a free account
Create a free Dispatch account to keep reading Get Started ALREADY HAVE AN ACCOUNT? SIGN IN
63
By and
Comments (63)
Join The Dispatch to participate in the comments.
 
  1. Alex DeLarge

    "McAuliffe retains a considerable advantage, but there is a reasonable if limited chance of an upset."

    "Reasonable if limited chance." LOL. This has to be the most useless, weasel-worded "conclusion" ever. But thanks for the tip. Based on this insight, I think I'll call my bookie and bet the "reasonable but limited chance" line.

    Collapse
  2. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    You know you’re starting to make me think I might actually vote for Youngkin. I want to write in Denver Riggleman with Sasquatch for lieutenant governor. But if Youngkin pushes back more against Trump I want to reward him. Also I never liked McAuliffe the first time around.

    Collapse
  3. Avatar photo
    Frank Lee

    Virginia is populated by moocher and looters of government money. They will vote Democrat regardless of terrible performance because they want the party that butters their bread for them.

    Collapse
  4. Avatar photo
    Victor Clairmont

    GUYS!

    NJ had its debate for governorship last night. I know it’s even more of a less chance, but an upset there would be amaaaazingly funny.

    Virginia of course would be interesting too.

    Losses there might show an incoming wave disaster for 2022, but even if Dems retain Virginia’s governorship they will still be walking a tightrope to the elections next year.

    Collapse
  5. Avatar photo
    Carl Tuesday

    Coverage request for the sweep: obviously dire economic effects (and therefore electoral) can be assumed if the debt ceiling isn't raised... However, conventional wisdom says that the party who raises the debt ceiling gets blamed for spending and deficits.

    So here is the question: do we have any evidence that "blame" actually matters or moves the needle? Will Dems really get hurt in marginal races if they decide to, on their own (as Mitch is intent on), raise the debt ceiling? Further, does it actually hurt them to raise it to "a gazillion" so this isn't reoccurring? I'm very skeptical that a year and change from today, "did this tossup race candidate vote for the debt ceiling increase" will be a question that really matters...

    Especially since most everyone, party to the side, seems to otherwise act as if money is fake nowadays.

    Collapse
    1. Vitaly

      I think that Dems should have raised the debt limit in March in the first Reconciliation bill. From what I understand, if the majority party wants votes on the debt limit from the minority, it usually makes a policy concession (2011 was different because House and Senate had opposing parties holding majorities). Democrats are not making any concessions this time around so they should have just bit the bullet and raised it earlier rather than wait till last minute.
      I don't think this will affect the midterms in any way. Nor would the passage of both bills - Dems have a 3-seat majority in the House; they will lose it in 2022. So they might as well try to compromise and pass both bills... otherwise it is a bust and Biden will be mortally wounded.

      Collapse
  6. Emma

    I watched that debate last night. McAuliffe definitely made it about trump and I think it hurt him. Youngkin did a good job calling that out IMO. However, Youngkin seemed very unsure of basic laws and procedures and hesitated when asked about endorsing trump if he was the nominee. I think he also came off pandering when it came to the vaccine question about small box versus covid. Overall I think McAuliffe came off a bit desperate but Youngkin came off a bit naive. He looked like that little boy scared on the playground more than a man who can lead in government. He also I think, answered the monument and race in education questions very poorly. As a minority conservative woman I found his answer pathetic. Either own your position or don't, but don't say nonsense about lost dreams when discussing race and history, especially in Virginia. I will likely vote the R but only because the D has the legislature

    Collapse
    1. Kevin Brady

      Completely agree on all counts. I live in Northern VA (Alexandria), and I'm seeing more Youngkin signs that I might've expected, perhaps as a reaction to how leftward the School Board and City Council have drifted recently.

      And agreed that a few answers by both candidates left me disappointed, but I actually think the state would do fine with either of them at the helm (which is refreshing, to be honest).

      Collapse
    2. Avatar photo
      Rick Schwartz

      I thought the bit on education worked well for Youngkin. Youngkin said parents should have a say in what their kids are taught in schools and Terry actually said that parents should not tell schools what they should teach. Youngkin expertly got Terry annoyed and Terry gave him a nice line for Youngkin's next ad.

      Collapse
      1. Emma

        Agree with you on that Terry comment re: parents have no say. That will cost him for sure. I did agree with him in theory---that parents should not be checking out books with the intent of prohibiting students from reading such book. We could see this happen with anything (what if a liberal parent wanted to take To Kill a Mockingbird off the shelves? )Terry should have answered that much better than he did, but overall I would be happy with Younkin.

        Collapse
  7. Avatar photo
    MarqueG68

    One more reason that I favor Grassley, despite his age-related negatives: He blocks that Senate seat from falling into the hands of an out-and-out Trumpist.

    Collapse
    1. Avatar photo
      Stephanie

      Isn't Iowa turning purple, though? Grassley being primaried by a Trumpy nut job could make all the difference in the general.

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        MarqueG68

        They say in the article that Iowa's trending more red. I was just taking that at face value.

        Collapse
        1. Avatar photo
          Stephanie

          I'm probably wrong. According to Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, Iowa is R+6. So is Ohio.

          AZ is R+3, TX is R+5.

          West Virginia, Joe Manchin's state, is R+23.

          Collapse
  8. Avatar photo
    Pat Riot

    Larry Sabato tweet:

    Uh-oh. Youngkin says if Trump is the Republican nominee for President in 2024, he'll back Trump--the candidate who lost Virginia in a landslide in 2020. #VAGovDebate

    ***

    This says it all. There is no almost Republican in the country who could answer this question differently. Youngkin cannot simultaneously be a Republican and run away from Trump.

    Collapse
  9. Avatar photo
    Jean-Christophe Jouffrey

    Dear Sarah Isgur,

    "His chief rival, Hillbilly Elegy author and hedge-funder J.D. Vance, is trying to run in an “intellectual Trumpism” lane, running a campaign focused on class grievance against cultural and political elites. Mandel accuses Vance of being a closet NeverTrumper, and is currently polling ahead by about 20 points."

    Now, color me baffled... 😏

    "Intellectual Trumpism" is not working?

    Trump : "I love the uneducated!", they are such easy schmucks, ready to enroll in Trump University. 🎓🤪

    Collapse
  10. Avatar photo
    Karyllcooper

    I appreciated the Veg-O-Matic reference. Accurate and made me smile!

    Collapse
Load More