Campaign Quick Hits

Turnout ≠ Base: Harry Enten, CNN analyst and former FiveThirtyEight guy, had me nodding my head this week. Both sides believe that elections are won by appealing to their base. The reason for this is that they believe that there are no persuadable voters in the middle and it’s all about turnout. But as Enten points out, for Democrats at least, the lower propensity voters aren’t going to respond to far left messaging. I’ll let him explain…

Democrats should keep in mind that the Democratic voters likely to sit out 2022 are not the left-wing base. They’ll probably be more moderate and mainstream Democrats …

Democrats hold a 1-point advantage among all registered voters on the generic congressional ballot, which is within the margin of error. Among those voters who say they’re extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in the midterms, Republicans hold a 4-point edge. Democrats, meanwhile, are up 6 points among those who are only somewhat or not enthusiastic about voting next year.

Now look at those who say they’re going to vote Democratic and are enthusiastic vs. those who are not. Very liberals make up 20% of those who are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting next year, while only 11% of those aren’t. That is, the Democratic voters who are more enthusiastic about voting next year are more likely to be very liberal than those [who] lack enthusiasm.