Brittle Regimes

Animal Spirits or The House Republican Conference?

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Steve and Jonah join Mike as he takes over the host’s chair in this week’s Dispod. The trio discuss China’s version of manifest destiny and:
-Biden’s economic outreach
-Big dollar donors desperately scanning the Republican field
-Kari Lake being a loser (and proud of it)
-Mob rule of institutions
-Vivek: worth voters’ time?

Show Notes:

-Jonah’s China piece for The Dispatch

-Scott Lincicome’s newsletter on China

-Poll: Georgia Republicans are unusually skeptical of Trump’s 2020 actions

-David Brooks NYT column Nikki’s the one

-Steve’s Animal Spirits moment

-“Not Donald Trump” NBC Poll

-Watch: Steve’s take on Ron DeSantis’ debate night

-Watch: Kari Lake Doesn’t Want Republicans to Win

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Comments (37)
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  1. Avatar photo
    Gibby

    Steve making pop culture references????????

    Oppressed by bad songs AND KNOWS WHO THE ARTIST IS????

    Who is this guy?

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  2. Steve.Waters5149

    "has perfected . . . ."

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  3. Steve.Waters5149

    When you all were describing Vivek and his ability to convincingly make up stuff on the fly, it brought to mind George Santos, who was perfected the same skillset (without the carnival barker chops Vivek has).

    Keep up the good work! Steve

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  4. Randall Briggs

    With all of the figuring about how DeSantis can win going on, do Jonah, Steve, and Michael think that Little Ron has a legitimate shot at gaining the Republican nominee? And do they think that a President DeSantis would advance classical-liberal conservatism? Or is it just nostalgia for what the Republican Party used to be?

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  5. Avatar photo
    Mmaughan0

    Steve being a vulfpeck fan warmed my heart. After all the grief he gets for not knowing pop culture, he plucks a reference to a relatively obscure but great quirky band out of nowhere. Fun fact for the Wolverines out there, they met and formed at University of Michigan.

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  6. Avatar photo
    The Bell Tower

    Thanks for pluggin The Garden, Steve. Great venue.

    One thing you guys really didn’t mention that I think could be effective for DeSantis is the narrative that Democrats and the media who love them want Donald Trump to win the primary. Desperately.

    I don’t think that Joe Biden is a good bet to beat any of the other Republicans regardless of what these early polls say barring whatever unforeseen circumstances come up between now and the general. I also think there’s still a chance that Democrats defenestrate Joe before the primaries. How can serious people believe he isn’t a major risk with his questionable health and terrible VP? He could surely still lose to Trump.

    Anyway, I spend a lot of time trolling and then getting banned from the Trumpy fever swamps around Facebook. One thing is clear: many of them believe the opposite. They think the RINOs and the Democrats are secretly working together to keep Trump out. They think he’s some powerful token of anti-establishment magic or something.

    Most of that ilk is probably not very persuadable but DeSantis built his early bones believing otherwise. Trump has tried to shut all that out but I think he can still move some of them if he can convince them that it’s Trump their hated enemies want to face. He’s made the argument a few times and I hope he doubles down on it.

    I would go so far as to say some who want to be president (Newsome, for example) would quietly prefer Trump to Biden because Biden (and Harris) will block their 2028 bid.

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    1. Sunilsaha2

      I personally don’t know a single Democrat that wants Trump to win the nomination. I also don’t know a single Democrat that likes Desantis but that doesn’t mean they (we) want Trump to win the primary.

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      1. Avatar photo
        The Bell Tower

        But do you know any Democrats who have a chance at being president in 2028? Certainly the Democratic voters don’t want Trump.

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        1. Sunilsaha2

          2028 is a lifetime away in politics. There will be several Democrat contenders.

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          1. Avatar photo
            The Bell Tower

            True, all of whom would not want to face a potentially incumbent Harris, never mind defend a lame duck Biden. I’m just speculating obviously but I think it’s worthwhile to consider.

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  7. Madelinejoyparker

    Animal Spirits was stuck in my head from the first reference. When Steve mentioned Vulfpeck I LOST it. My husband mixed their MSG show for YouTube and we are BIG Dispatch fans so it felt like the sweetest crossover of our worlds!

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    1. Avatar photo
      Steve Hayes

      I love it. Glad it wasn't just me. That show is legendary. My brother found it and introduced me. I find what they did with "Back Pocket" jaw-dropping.

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  8. Brett F

    I just listened to Vulfpeck for the first time and I don't know what to say except it wasnt what I was expecting from Steve at all.

    I was fully prepared for death metal. Or math rock.

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    1. Avatar photo
      The Bell Tower

      Math rock sounds monotonous. Death metal rules.

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  9. Avatar photo
    Rajeev

    I wish that Republicans and analysts can just state the ovious. These primaries are not state by state contests they are national contests. Trump is about to run roughshod over the rest of the candidates like the Dothraki army did with dragons over the Lannister army. Iowa is meaningless. New Hampshire is meaningless. Trump is going to run up such high margins across the entire country that this is likely over by mid-March. There's a realistic chance that Trump tops 2,000 delegates out of the 2,470 delegates total. He will crush it all over the country from Louisiana to Tennessee to Michigan to New York/New Jersey to Virginia to California. In most of these states his margins of victory are likely to be landslides (30+ points).

    1996 - Bob Dole lost New Hampshire & almost lost Iowa to Pat Buchanan. Doesn't matter biggest name cruised to the nomination.

    2000 - George Bush biggest name won easily the election

    2008 - John McCain finished 4th in Iowa caucuses & cruised to nomination biggest name (w/Giuliani who never had a chance with his wait till Florida strategy). Barack Obama & Hillary were the two national candidates who ran an up to the end competitive primary.

    2012 - Mitt Romney biggest national candidate loses to Rick Santorum cruises to nomination

    2016 - Donald Trump crushing everyone nationally loses to Ted Cruz cruises to the nomination. Hillary holds off Bernie but both of them the national candidates ran to a Hillary win but slightly competitive primary.

    2020 - Joe Biden bombs in New Hampshire & Iowa. Pete Buttigieg crushes it in first two state winning Iowa and Barely losing to Bernie in New Hampshire. Doesn't matter it was Biden cruising to the nomination and Bernie the other national candidate.

    2024 - Trump crushing the party nationally is going to end the race by mid to late March.

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    1. Russell J

      It certainly looks like Trump would win if he remains at 50%. Trump has lost a national election unlike those names and there is serious weakness in his support. Would have been 80% a few years ago. Losing a couple of early states could start a domino effect.

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  10. April

    Great podcast! Well done Mike and nice reference to sadly relevant passage from the Lord of the Rings.

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