A Tsar Is Born

As Sting once sang, “in Europe and America, there’s a growing feeling of hysteria.” With ...

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As Sting once sang, “in Europe and America, there’s a growing feeling of hysteria.” With war in Ukraine looking increasingly likely and tensions mounting between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, it feels an awful lot like we’re back in 1987. To explore how Russia’s bellicosity might affect the global stage, Jonah is joined by Leon Aron, director of Russian studies at the American Enterprise Institute. Together, they address heady questions on Russia and narrowly resist performing a duet of “99 Red Balloons.” Would the Russian people support an invasion of Ukraine? How is Russia influencing European politics? And is there any chance of Russia becoming a quasi-democratic country in the near future?

Show Notes:

– Leon’s page at AEI

– Leon’s contributions to The Dispatch

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  1. Avatar photo
    Jaredmanly77

    I was curious what this guys take was on Putin prior to Crimea, prior to Georgia….what’s his track record on Russian aggression. I never made time to research his prior work….but this episode aged pretty quickly. As JPods theme song says “hope for the best ….expect the worst”

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      Joe B

      Thoughts exactly. Pretty astounding. Like I don't think the nation is well served by foreign policy experts all talking in an echo chamber and dissenting voices aren't a bad thing, but as Charles Krauthammer would point out, being a strategic argument, the hypothesis is testable. And Aron's take was flat wrong and had Ukraine listened to his advice they'd be even less prepared for invasion.

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  2. Icarus213

    Looks like Aron's take didn't age too well, as of this date.

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    MatthewRobin

    If you want more Ukraine stories, check out Infrared Line. I will drop another article by next Monday.

    https://infraredline.substack.com/

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    Kurt S

    Jonah, dude, please stop! How long do you think you can keep up this streak of amazing guests and serious-minded interviews (I'm including the Carr & Shellenberger conversations here)? You've earned a little vacation. ...but seriously, Leon Aron's insights were most welcome on this deeply troubling situation. Too bad he's not advising the White House, but thank you for bringing him on the Remnant.

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  5. GregS

    This podcast finally helped me put my finger on what has been bothering me about TD for the last 6 months or so.

    In the end of year Dispatch Podcast, the gang was worried about Ukraine, that Putin would invade and we had to do something.

    So since then Biden does many things- gets NATO involved, hundreds of millions of dollars of weapons are sent over, aggressive sanctions are threatened and diplomacy is nevertheless attempted.
    No invasion yet.

    Then you have on an expert to criticize Biden for taking the threat seriously, with the message being - Biden should have ignored the Ukraine thing altogether and just had a low-level State Department flunky issue a statement expressing "concern."

    You're having it both ways. If Biden *had* done that and Putin had 100k troops in Ukraine, you'd have lambasted him for not doing anything - as you said you would back in December 2021. If Biden didn't evacuate the embassy and Russia invaded, you'd have savaged him for not learning anything from Afghanistan. With good reason!

    Unfortunately it is increasingly becoming clear that you're settling into your comfort zone of "Biden is incompetent, has had the worst year of any presidency ever, etc etc." I shouldn't be surprised, because it's not as if you'd given up partisanship when you formed TD . You're GOP partisans that went out into the cold because you didn't like Trump. But as long as Trump isn't in office you seem happiest when working towards greater power for the GOP - even if the GOP is nakedly embracing fascism. But it does make me sad to see naked partisanship instead of good fair analysis.

    I plan to stick around just as I did at NR until they became a Trump apologist outfit, and abandoned any principles they claimed to have. I hope you at least keep your principles even if you return to your partisan ways.

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    1. Photo of Jonah Goldbergcircle-angle-nib
      Jonah Goldberg vertical-nib Author

      This is an interesting response and I think I need to think about it more. But in fairness to everyone, I had no idea Leon took this position. There was absolutely nothing partisan about me having him on. And I think if you listen to my responses, I think that’s somewhat evident. Moreover, Steve and I disagreed from the outset about important parts of the Ukraine question. I’m totally open to the charge of inconsistency — because I’ve been thinking all this stuff through — but I don’t think I’ve been remotely partisan if you mean I’ve been water carrying for the GOP. It’s possible I have been reflexively critical of Biden. So, again, need to think more.

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        Todd T

        I came back to these comments after reading your essay today regarding Ukraine. Mainly because Leon made some good points that seemed reasonable but maybe after sleeping on it, you don’t really agree. Foreign affairs is really hazy and easy to second guess.

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      2. GregS

        I definitely don't mean "carrying water for the GOP". I mean exactly what you said - reflexively critical of Biden. But to that I'd add, giving the benefit of the doubt to those who are on your side of the aisle on policy positions (like the Mike Gallaghers and Dan Crenshaws of the world) even if they are standing by while the party embraces fascism.
        Anyway, I wouldn't be a paying member if I didn't find value in reading your pieces and listening to your podcasts so... look forward to the next one

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          Patrick

          I’d be interested to hear which progressive outlets you think do a good job avoiding the same trap?

          Example. If Liz Cheney were president today, which progressive outlet do you think would give her more balanced coverage than The Dispatch is giving Biden?

          I think there’s some validity to your criticism, I’m just not sure how much of it is inevitable human nature. Even if political parties didn’t exist, I think we’re all ideologically hard-wired as more progressive or more conservative. And it’s darn near impossible to treat the other side exactly the same as our own.

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          1. GregS

            That's an interesting question...
            I don't know of an outlet that does this well. But, in fairness, *I don't actually read very many liberal progressive outlets* other than the straight news parts of NYT (i.e., not the opinion columns). I will say that Will Saletan is a good example of someone who is consistently even handed and fair.

            I know my personal views and baseline beliefs run on the liberal side. I don't want to read people who agree with my conclusions if they also agree with all my premises and biases. If much rather read people who I have disagreements with, because I might learn something or change my mind.
            I guess I hold TD up to a greater standard of fairness because of two things:
            1) they were willing to buck the GOP capitulation to Trump so I know they are capable of doing the right thing, and
            2) they complain (and have complained in the past) about liberal media bias, so I want them to demonstrate that they can be a media outlet without conservative bias.

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        2. Boris

          Having a background close to Leon Aron's and having lived half of my life in Soviet Union, I think I can understand his position even though I can't agree with everything, not probably of half of what he said. And his position is definitely doesn't tilt to either of the sides: republican or democrat. But I want to thank Jonah for bringing the guy and give us an opportunity to listen to his point of view. For me personally it helps to appraise and sometimes re-evaluate my own opinions of the matter. Now, if I may, on the substance. I do not agree that doing nothing and ignoring Putin would have been a better policy than having some response. Of course it was far from ideal one, especially the "small incursion" gaffe, but I do see some positive developments. Putin didn't need another demonstration of NATO division. He knows it all well. I even see it the response as pretty unified except stray Germany. But this is a topic for another discussion. As for the public in Russia, they would believe anything he'd tell them whether it's supported by facts or not. On that count he didn't add any points to Aron's score card. So if Putin doesn't invade Ukraine and does nothing of this kind as Leon Aron predicts, there still might be some positive outcomes. What this incident - and I hope it remains just an incident, not a war - highlighted, was enormous European dependency of natural gas from Russia. In my opinion a big factor in Putin's maneuver was that he was annoyed that Germany was taking so long to certify and start the North Stream 2. He knows that the gas issue would come up no matter what he does. And maybe he'd be satisfied if he can get this done in addition to the propaganda points he scores as per Leon. But it also can backfire. And here I see a possible positive outcome. Europe is scrambling now to secure alternative resources for natural gas. If European governments, especially in the West, can finally convince themselves that their reliance on Russia is very dangerous and work toward alternative sources like Poland did, it will be a very positive development and big loss for Putin.
          Jonah, please, more podcasts like this.

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          1. Pohl

            Good points. I think Aron was too sanguine about Putin’s intentions. I’m sure he has contingency plans to invade in case the West had a softer response than currently. It remains to be seen of course.

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    MatthewRobin

    If Dispatchers crave more Ukraine, come on over to InfraredLine.

    https://infraredline.substack.com/p/warzone-ukraine-diplomacy-or-deterrence

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    George.Skinner

    I wish I were more persuaded that Russia isn't actually going to invade. What I fear is that events often develop in a way that thwarts rational calculations. This was certainly the case with the start of World War 1, where leaders miscalculated and couldn't find a way to step back from the abyss of war in time.

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    Bill Nelson

    I recognize Mr Aron as an expert. That said I disagree with his assessment. I don’t believe that Putin is much influenced by domestic opinion. He went into Georgia and took Crimea, his next move has to be bigger in order to satisfy his own needs. If he takes Ukraine there is a next step and a next. To assume that by relegating Putin to minor problem will insure ever larger bad acts. And yes, China is watching.

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    Shawn Gallagher

    Jonah, this was good stuff. I really enjoy the experts who can provide history and context on one issue. Deep dive Ukraine it is.

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  10. Martin Tatuch

    Interesting perspective from Leon Aris about how internal Russian politics may affect Putin's decision making on Ukraine. I suspect that policymakers in Washington take internal Russian politics a little more into account than Prof. Aris gives them credit, but the real question is whether Putin himself does. It' s not clear how much credence Putin gives to anybody outside his most intimate circle. There have been several people where well-off Russians basically admit that they can do nothing. It's also not clear whether or not he has a specific short-term aim regarding Ukraine. He may be operating like a thief, grabbing what he can without risk. (Long term he does not believe Ukraine actually exists, as he wrote at length several months ago.)

    It would be helpful to have more of a Ukrainian perspective on this. There's not a lot of deep knowledge about Ukraine, and few journalists know the country well. Treating all ethnic Russians or Russian-speaking (i.e., most everybody in Ukraine these days) as being sympathetic to Russia is a caricature. The Maidan Revolution was multi-ethnic, multi-lingual and multi-confessional. While there have always been separatist sentiments in the Donbas, the people there voted in similar numbers for Ukrainian independence 30 years ago, and Maidan supporters demonstrating in Donbas were set upon by a Russian-oriented mob before the fighting started. Now it's locked-down as much as any police state can be (try to get independent reporting from there.....) There are several good candidates for explaining the current situation in Ukraine, such as Christopher Miller, who's been based in Kyiv for years, or Nolan Peterson, who's done excellent reporting from the war zone.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Bill Nelson

      Steve Bannon knows the country well.

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