Destroying Hamas

There are no cracks in Israel.

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Dan Senor, author of The Genius of Israel: The Surprising Resilience of a Divided Nation in a Turbulent World and host of Call Me Back with Dan Senor, returns to discuss the state of Israel’s war against Hamas as the IDF begins to move into Rafah. How is Israeli society holding up? What should we make of growing accusations of genocide? Can Israel achieve its military objectives? What do Israelis think about American politics? And what does the future for Jews in America look like?

Show Notes:
—Tablet: How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers
—John Podhoretz: They’re Coming After Us
—Dan Senor’s previous appearance on The Remnant
—Jonah: The Many Problems With Accusing Israel of ‘Genocide’ in Gaza

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Comments (43)
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  1. Avatar photo
    Dan

    Does the apparently growing sentiment of Israeli settlement of Gaza affect the calculus regarding genocide? https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2024/03/20/israel-gaza-west-bank-settler-movement-clarissa-ward-pkg-intl-ldn-vpx.cnn

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  2. Grandymitchell

    I listen to podcasts via Spotify. When I tried to listen to this episode, it wouldn't play because it was labeled as containing "explicit content." I had to allow explicit content in Spotify before I could listen to it. Then I was mystified: what explicit content? It made me wonder whether someone at Spotify just didn't like the content? Or maybe it was just a mistake.

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  3. BenP

    FWIW, that statistical analysis in Tablet has some questionable stuff in it:

    https://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2024/03/08/a-note-on-how-the-gaza-ministry-of-health-fakes-casualty-numbers/

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Reliable_sources/Noticeboard#Tablet_(magazine)_and_article_by_Wharton_statistician

    The "implausible linear trend" and "implausible negative correlation between male and female deaths" arguments are really bad. The "lack of correlation between women's and children's deaths" could be legit if we trust that the reporting dates are all synchronized, but it seems like they aren't. The "if 70% are women and children and 20% are Hamas, we're missing non-Hamas men" argument seems solid, but could also be the result of under-reporting deaths of men relative to those of women and children.

    Restricting the analysis to 15 days when far more were available seems like a sketchy move.

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  4. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    I recently started listening to Call Me Back at the recommendation of a friend and it’s very good. I’m working my way back through the archives now.

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  5. Evan

    I wish jonah would talk to more people who challenge his assumptions. It doesn't need to be a debate. I just don't think you get the best information if there is no real testing of one's arguments.

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  6. Andrew Gessel

    Very good podcast (although I am getting kind of Israel-d out between this and Commentary, but that's not your fault). I want to focus on the early part of the discussion about the liberal Israelis. I'm sure some of you guys have heard about this, but Guernica had a bunch of people quit after publishing a piece by one of the women who worked in one of the non-profits bringing people across the border for medical care. She is the exact person that Senor is talking about: very pro-palestine right up until 6:32 AM on 10/7/23 and now supports Israel wholeheartedly. Guernica took down the piece, but not before the Internet Archive got its hands on it. I highly, highly recommend reading it. It's brilliantly written and you can feel the complex mix of emotions this woman is going through. She was doing everything she could to help Gazans, and in return they killed 1200 people.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20240305095742/https://www.guernicamag.com/from-the-edges-of-a-broken-world/

    Oh, one more thing: I think that this war is being fought to completion, something we haven't seen since WW2. I support Israel, but when the dust settles it is up to them to handle reconstruction correctly. If they screw it up, they'll end up with groups even worse than Hamas and that will be entirely on them. I am supportive of the US funding reconstruction. Every life lost is a tragedy, and every war crime that has occurred (because even in the cleanest wars there are crimes) should face justice.

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  7. Avatar photo
    Seth B

    I have time only to say thank you, so... thanks, Jonah and Dan for an informative episode of the Remnant.

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  8. Avatar photo
    Scarlette Tarte

    Old Dan Senor. That old neocon. These guys never go away, and they somehow think, that, as a Harvard business School graduate, that if they write a book about Israel, that makes them an expert. And places like the Dispatch, instead of saying "hey, you guys led us into a bad situation last time, we are not going to listen to you again, instead, you run right in and keep getting hit with it.

    As Muhammed Ali used to say "if that ain't dumb, ain't nobody dumb".

    Dan Senor repeating the same "it's civilization ending!" rhetoric that he said in the run up to the Iraq war. He was wrong, of course, neither civilization came to an end, theirs or ours.

    He was the spokesperson for the initial Coalition Provisional Authority, which occupied Iraq in 2003 with promises about democracy blooming out all over the place because "all we have to do is show up, and they are so anxious to have democracy, it will just happen easily, of its own accord! We won't have to be here very long!"

    Everyone remember those happy times? These guys pushing a very hawkish, interventionist policy were wrong then. They are wrong now.

    Can anyone tell me how Dan Senor became an "expert" on Israel, because there is nothing in his background of being an actual Israeli or foreign affairs expert. His biography says simply he went to Harvard business School.

    His mother bore heavy losses in the Holocaust, and Dan has said that his mother's trauma from those events was "heavy" for his family when he was growing up. Is this why he believes he is an "expert" on Israel? Really, I want to know and I want to know why the Dispatch is summoning up the ghosts of failed foreign policy past.

    I mean, these guys really believe that is was "the media" that made us lose Vietnam.

    Let us not forget it was Senor who traveled with Romney to London, Israel, and Poland on his foreign policy tour, when he was running for president and it was Senor who told the traveling media that Romney would support an Israeli strike on Iran. Oopsie! He also got Romney in trouble when, citing something Dan wrote in his book, he contrasted Israeli and Palestinian culture in a way that was seen as slighting Palestinians. Romney ended up looking like, and being called, a racist. So he hurt his chances at winning the presidency.

    Senor is wrong here, about Israel. While there is consensus about fighting the war, there is little consensus about what comes after.

    There are the Orthodox, who want Arabs gone, even Arab Israelies. There is the center, and they want something like a Palestinian state but one that is administered by Israel, until such time as they feel they can trust them to turn over the reins to the Palestinians, and there is still the far left, that wants a two state solution and wants it quickly, because they believe the only real way to real safety and security is thru being able to live, in peace, with the Arabs in the area.

    They are right, of course, but I find myself in the middle that says "baby steps first, please".

    However, as late as January of 2023,
    over 60% of Israelis were willing to accept mutual Israeli-Palestinian recognition of the other’s legitimate claims, an end to the conflict and the end of future claims under a two-state solution. If Israelis thought a deal would work, a majority would support it. They understand that, if successful, a two-state solution is the best way to ensure Israel’s future as a Jewish and democratic state.

    That doesn't sound just like a "few, hard core, ultra leftists just hanging on, now does it?

    However, and this is the real Crux of the matter, and if Dan Senor were really an "expert" on Israel he would address this...the real problem to a lasting peace solution is this...Orthodox Jewish women have 6.5 births per woman. Reform Jews only have 2.3, and Palestinian women, 3.8.

    The far right Orthodox are taking over Israel. And THAT is what is causing all the internal problems of Israel.

    So what will become of all the millions of Palestinians? Israelies are all over the map on this, but the largest group, far right Orthodox, natch, want to "ethnically cleanse" them. They want them removed. A few in the government have said so openly, and they do not back up a step even when Netanyahu says "hey, keep that on the down low".

    Mr. Senor is not being honest with anyone when he says "oh, they just want a secure state, etc etc.". Nope.

    They want all the Arabs gone, including those living in East Jerusalem.

    I want these neocons on the record. Where does "expert" (from visiting Israel, I guess) Dan Senor stand on that eventuality? Because it's coming, unless Netanyahu gets removed, and the far right Orthodox are limited as to political office.

    Unless there is some huge reckoning and change in Israel, they are going to be our enemy, and not our friend, and I say that is likely to happen within 20 years. Already, majorities of Americans do not support what Israel is doing to the Palestinians. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-public-support-israel-drops-majority-backs-ceasefire-reutersipsos-2023-11-15/ so does anyone here really think that situation is going to improve with the far right Orthodox and ultra right in control of Israel?

    If Dan Senor has not seen how Netanyahu has been the worst thing for Israel, ever, in her short history, worse even than the Oct 7th attack, then he is no "expert" and worse, he is no friend of Israel. Netanyahu allowing the settlements to continue unabated, has gotten Israel into a situation they can no longer control. Unable to recall the settlers (who are politically very active and often resort to violence - remember, it was an ultra right wing Jewish person who killed Rabin because, ahem, he didn't want peace with the Palestinians) because of how unpopular it would be with those who are settlers, and fearful of the violence that would ensue, they are now stuck. They are on a course to ethnic cleansing or pure apartheid. Netanyahu, because of his father, has gotten Israel into this mess. That is where these far right wing policies always lead.. to dark places.

    If Dan Senor did not see this split coming between Gantz and Netanyahu, he is not much of an expert. We have been saying it's coming for weeks now. Gantz is about 12 points ahead of Netanyahu and that lead has been consistent. Gaetz is fair and I would categorize him as center right. He recently designated two Israeli groups (la familia and Le Hava) as terrorists after violence and racist rhetoric by them against Palestinians and other Arabs. Netanyahu has steadfastly refused to do so.

    The only hope for Israel to regain some of its footing, and be the country again that she set out to be lies in two things ...getting rid of Netanyahu and reducing the control the Orthodox have in government. Only then will they be able to rein in the settlers.

    It's a long, long road back for Israel, but one that cannot happen soon enough. If Netanyahu wins, it will just be further alienation for Israel.

    Mark my words. The rise of the Orthodox in Israel with Netanyahu at the helm will see further erosion of rights for Arabs in Israel, and none at all for Palestinians.

    Benny will help mitigate some of that. But that's the real issue with Israel. Not it's war against Hamas, not what is happening right now in Gaza, but what some of them have planned for the future of the Palestinian people.

    All of you here better hope for a Gantz win. Schumer was not wrong to call for new elections...Netanyahu is the PRIME obstacle to peaceful solutions on the Israeli side. Many Israelies want them to occur, even in the middle of a war. That is how sick they are of Netanyahu. Most now despise him, as he cannot secure the hostages and as they found out he was working closely with Hamas. They blame him and his policies for 10/7.https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/only-15-israelis-want-netanyahu-keep-job-after-gaza-war-poll-finds-2024-01-02/

    Please note Senor did not give you any references to check. Please remember he was wrong about Iraq and democracy blooming out everywhere. Please remember he helped lead Romney into a loss.

    And he did not tell you any of what I just did. And you know what I am? Simply a person with good friends in Israel (now moved out and into Portugal) who just talks to my Israeli friends and reads a lot of Israeli newspapers.

    There are still lots of good people in Israel, willing to engage with Palestinians if their security can be guaranteed. Please, help them out, not by listening to a person who talked us into war and got it so, so wrong, but by reading Israeli newspapers, and watching Israeli television. You don't have to read or speak Hebrew to follow along, there are English versions available.

    Here are some stories for you all to check out.

    Remember when Senor said "none" of the residents of southern Israel have been able to go back home? Wrong. Over half have gone home. https://www.timesofisrael.com/over-half-of-southern-evacuees-back-home-as-officials-prep-massive-rehabilitation-push/

    Gantz supports conscription for the Orthodox, and Netanyahu continues to try to postpone and delay...https://www.timesofisrael.com/gantz-boycotts-meeting-on-haredi-draft-with-pm-after-cabinet-ignores-his-proposal/

    The military warned Netanyahu that his "judicial overhaul" plan were emboldening Iran, Hamas and other enemies of Israel. Did Netanyahu listen? Nope. Now, army officials are willing to resign over NOT BEING ABLE to convince him. As in, they are men of honor and he is not. https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-top-idf-intelligence-officer-says-he-will-quit-over-october-7-failures/

    Oh, and remember what he said about "nobody is interested in peaceful solutions anymore? Yeah, here is an editorial from, ahem, right now, about, although tired of what the rest of the world thinks of Israel, she plans to keep right on trying peace. Man, I don't even have to search for this stuff to make my point... https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/spoiler-alert-itll-never-be-enough/?_gl=1*wrzoiw*_ga*ODAwNDE5NTc5LjE2OTY5MDU3MjQ.*_ga_RJR2XWQR34*MTcxMDQ2MTAzNC41MC4xLjE3MTA0NjE3MTEuMC4wLjA.

    And just today, hopeful news. I don't trust them, but, it's better than we have heard lately...https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/a-deal-can-be-reached-hamas-reportedly-offers-positive-response-to-hostage-deal-framework/

    That is just from one newspaper today. There are several English versions. Please, don't listen to washed up has beens that have no real expertise in anything but graduating from Harvard business School. Israel needs real friends, not people who just go along to get along.

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    1. April

      Impressive push back to Senor and well supported by resources. I’m with Scarlette Tarte.

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    2. Lowedj

      Hi Scarlette,
      I hereby conclude that you are no fan of Dan Senor.

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  9. Chris

    After all the economic and military aid we have given Israel throughout the years, I'm pretty surprised they still need to ask for more in order to defeat Hamas. And the idea Dan brought up that this is a civilizational conflict with Israel somehow acting as the defender of the West seems way over the top. This is a major conflict for sure, but its a middle eastern conflict. It doesn't have to be a global one

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    1. Avatar photo
      Addicus

      It's not that they need aid across the board, they need specific items. For example, air defense missiles for the Iron Dome system. It's not just Hamas, Hezbollah is still firing a lot of rockets into Israeli population centers.

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      1. Chris

        Fair enough, but I think the point still stands- how are they not prepared for a war with hamas and potentially hezbollah after all these decades of enormous aid from the US?

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    2. Avatar photo
      Scarlette Tarte

      It is over the top. It's the same old neocons language he used back in the day to goad us into war with Iraq.

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  10. Sai Ayila

    Jonah has been war mongerer ever since his George Bush days. There is a difference between killing Hamas terrorists and killing civilians. If top Hamas targets are killed with some civilian casualties that's understandable but what netanyahu is doing is overkill bomb bomb bomb with no exit strategy which is totally unacceptable. Even netanyahu's own generals are critical of his strategy, he will be soon out of his job. Yes they have the right to defend themselves and right to attack Hamas but US also has the right to cut off military aid to them or make it conditional like the rumors say.

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