Are Silent Trump Voters Real, or Just a Myth?

Will the real SMAGA voters please stand up?

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As Joe Biden’s lead in the polls continues to expand both nationally and in battleground states, a new explanation for his surge is taking hold, especially among President Trump’s staunchest supporters. The theory holds that there is a large reserve army of secret Trump voters who are afraid, in this time of cancel culture, to state their preference, and that’s why the polls are so lopsided.

The theory is partly a hangover from 2016. It’s true that pollsters undercounted Trump voters in that election. But it’s a huge jump to think it was because SMAGA (Secret Make America Great Again) voters were refusing to state their preference. A postmortem by the polling industry went looking for significant numbers of SMAGAs and came up empty.

If people were afraid to tell the truth to pollsters, there should have been a gap between results from polls conducted by humans and machines. There wasn’t.

“Interviewer-administered polls did not underestimate Trump’s support more than self-administered [automated] and online surveys,” according to the Pew Research Center. Pew even tested the theory by dividing interviews between live interviewers and automated ones, finding “no significant difference by mode of interview on any of four questions asking directly about Trump.”

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  1. Avatar photo
    Connie

    I’d like to see the Dems win the WH and the GOP to hold onto the Senate. The last time the Dems held all the cards we had Obamacare shoved down our throats. Today, I look at Warren, AOC, Sanders, and have daymares. I suspect, due to age and obvious fragility (I saw Joe stump in Iowa), he isn’t going to fare well running with the bulls.

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    Tom Wilson

    Hi James, I hope your right, but judging by the words and legislative initiatives of elected Democrats I find them to be hostile to the interests of the American people. Their ideas are to be resisted by people of every race and economic condition wishing for a safe and prosperous life.

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    Joseph Iaco

    Trump only down five in Minnesota per Trafalgar. More evidence that the other polls are overstated, as they were in 2016. Until Trafalgar has Trump down significantly in states he needs to win, I still believe he will win.

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    Cole

    I'm a SMAGA voter. I don't love Trump, but I really don't ever "love" a politician. I appreciate the leadership of the Trump team and believe they are doing a pretty good job against tough head winds from the liberals, media and Never Trumpers. Since I am a physician in private practice I am not vocal about my support for the president. I will vote, give money and do all else I can. So, back off the president a bit please. The left will give you plenty to write about.

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  5. Bill O'Donnell

    The best thing for the country is for Trump and his acolytes to continue to believe that a SMAGA will bail them out!

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    Tom Wilson

    Your view would hold more weight if the Democratic leadership was pushing back on the radicals. They seem unbothered much less offended by the denigration of our countries founders and our institutions.

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    Tom Wilson

    The most disastrous response to COVID 19 came from the Democrat golden boy Andrew Cuomo. Trump’s leadership on that matter has been clumsy to vacant, but not worse than what the Democratic Party has offered. The leadership of the Democratic Party has not defended our country from the fringe. They often parrot the same talking points. Smashing our national monuments is highly offensive to me. I don’t detect that that looting and smashing offends the American left. The Democratic Party doesn’t appear to respect our nations founding. They seem to be more interested in propagating their belief in America as systemically racist.

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    Michelle O

    Has anyone else asked what cancel culture has to do with answering poll questions to a random person on the phone? Cancel culture is a distinct phenomenon involving people who know who you are and have the ability to spread your opinions to enough people who care to ruin you for them. I'm having a hard time connecting that to the anonymous pollster at the other end of the telephone line.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Bill Nelson

      Reverse phone number lookup. If someone has your phone number, not that hard to know who and where. Why identity theft is a problem.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Michelle O

        I think you overestimate random poll call center workers' desire to cancel random Republicans.

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        1. Avatar photo
          Bill Nelson

          Call centers buy their lists, those who build the lists to specific requirements know. Not much different than what campaigns have. How do they know what percentage of their targets are democrats?
          I do not respond to polls.

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      Pat Riot

      Very good point. Nobody ever got fired from their job answering a poll.

      As I mentioned below, there would certainly be a phenomenon around spouses not wanting to reveal their respective true feelings if they are called when the other is physically sitting next to them.

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        Bill Nelson

        “Very good point. Nobody ever got fired from their job answering a poll
        How many are fired for holding opinions?

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  9. MeAgain

    The real campaign doesn’t start until Labor Day. Democrats didn’t vote for a woman of color in their own primaries. The soccer moms don’t like Trump but they like their suburbs more.
    We may not know who “won”, scare quotes intended, until Spring Training 2021. Bring back baseball.

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  10. Daniel

    I always thought undecided voters were uniformed voters – but here I stand to answer Jonah’s call.

    I did not vote Trump. I thought he would do long-term harm to conservatism/classic liberalism (he has but the damage is done). He is despicable (pick your pejorative) in all facets of his public and private life. He conned the base. His son and son-in-law played footsie with Russian spies. He was rightly impeached. He has provided poor leadership in the face of the pandemic. I could go on.

    But the prospect of a Democrat House, Senate, and Presidency is deeply concerning. Democrat spending will dwarf what we saw this year. As a baseline, we will see an extension of unemployment stipends ad infinitum, local and state bailouts to the tune of a trillion and green new deal legislation to the tune of 2 trillion (Biden will call it stimulus to deal with 10% unemployment).

    It seems foolish to hang our hat on the filibuster. The remaining institutionalist Democrat senators (other than Joe Manchin) all approved of the nuclear option in 2013. Bidden will sign what he is sent.

    On foreign policy, the Trump administration - through Pompeo and Barr - has finally evolved to address the threat the CCP poses to its own people, the US and the world. If you think Bidden, Susan Rice et al. will continue this policy - you weren't paying attention between 2008-2016. Trump also got Iran right – can’t say the same for Ben Rhodes and Susan Rice.

    Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right again.

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