A Fight About Nothing

Well, almost nothing.

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Former U.S. President Donald Trump. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images.)

The history of Republican cynicism about the debt ceiling can be summarized in two social media posts. The first was published two weeks ago by citizen Trump.

The second, shared in a recent piece by Jonathan Chait, was published four years ago and features a soundbite from then-President Trump.

From “sacred element” in 2019 to “play tough” now. The man’s ethics (such as they are) have always been situational, but even for Trump, that’s pretty Trump.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    Great newsletter. It’s sad, but we may be headed for that debt crisis. Even with major defense cuts we’re still screwed if we don’t touch entitlements.

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    Jim McC

    Why are Republicans- sane and otherwise- so loathe to consider cuts to entitlements? Could it be because there is less-than-zero interest in that solution from any wing of the Democrats' caucus, and they know they'll get Paul Ryan'd in ads showing them shoving Grandma off a cliff? Look, I'm all for calling the GOP out on their populist insanity and lack of fiscal credibility, but let's not pretend there's a reasonable negotiating partner waiting at the table. I have seen no evidence that there is interest in tackling entitlement reform from even the the center left, so while a return to sanity from the GOP would be welcome, it would also be no reason to start holding your breath.

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    Xsearnold

    "Taken together, the two measures would have cut these bedrock safety-net programs for seniors by more than $250 billion over a decade."

    From what I can quickly see on the interwebs, "Mandatory outlays by the federal government totaled $4.8 trillion in 2021, of which $1.8 trillion was for Social Security and Medicare." $25B is a mere 1.4% of that $1.8T total. And that reduction is considered "draconian?"

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    Barry Alexander

    The problem with "showing good faith" is that there is none, on either side. Any serious Republican proposal (which they are currently unable to contemplate anyway, since they're in no way serious) would immediately be demagogued by the Dems. I remember the "Paul Ryan pushes granny of the mountain" of previous budget fights. Not to mention Obama giving a speech about how irresponsible it was to raise the debt ceiling.

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  5. Joe1776

    What about getting more US workers through immigration? There is clearly a labor shortage. Plenty of unfilled jobs that would otherwise be paying FICA taxes.

    https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/chartbooks/fast_facts/2021/fast_facts21.html

    Telling people the government will renege on past promises is not a viable way forward. That sort of retirement fraud would not be allowed in the private sector.

    Of course if you want to talk about changing how it works in the future and change how you take our money that is different. But there must be a way to fund these benefits without reneging on people that paid in already.

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  6. Matt Mullen

    Smart stuff. When is the GOP going to snap out of their insanity? I keep hoping the sane wing of the GOP will cut off the MAGA side, join with Dems (by actually switching parties), and start serious negotiations over our most pressing problems. MAGA needs to be booted out of power. They are not serious people. They are driven purely by their delusional emotions.

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      Scarlette Tarte

      If the real conservative right was smart, they would do that. Knowing that a temporary alliance with the Dems would result in a more favorable party to themselves down the road, and more electoral gains. But their hatred of the Dems is stronger than their own best interests.

      Getting rid of the MAGA wing, or stripping it of all power would be the best thing to happen to the Republican party. Forming a short alliance with the Dems would be an easy way to do it. Yet, they still prefer backbiter status over real power.

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    John A Johnson

    I should give up completely on the GOP and would if there were a real alternative. The Club for Growth became a prostitute once McIntosh lost his congressional seat and became its leader. To think that most likely half the comments that will be posted will label Paul Ryan a "RINO" offers a really sad commentary on the state of what once was "conservatism"

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      Bayesian

      CFG was some sort of bad joke in the Steve Moore days, and arguably at least an honest actor in the Pat Toomey days. I can't remember much of them in the Chocola days (2009 - 2014) to tell the truth (that was most of the Obama years during which I pretty much wrote off the national level Republican party as worthy of taking seriously or literally). Fully agree re McIntosh.

      If Mitch Daniels were a little younger I would be pushing hard for him for Senator, and it's extremely telling how much all the national level power centers are opposing him (let alone any actual fiscal responsibility; strange since there are several governors who have actually managed fairly sane fiscal policy - Chris Sununu being one current example).

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  8. R. James

    From the McCarthy speaker vote to this, there is a theme developing that the MAGA faction doesn't know what it wants, as long as there is controversy. The Fiscal Conservatives should get out in front of this and form a block and float a reasonable offer to the Democrats. That would make McCarthy have to react and either get on board or expose himself to a potential motion to vacate the chair from the fiscal conservatives. Who knows maybe the MAGA wing, since they do not know which concession to ask for, may jump on board too.

    I disagree with Nick Catoggio that the offer should be included with a tax hike concession. For one, it's bad policy to hike taxes with this amount of inflation, you will push the economy closer to stagflation just when the FED is trying to avoid that. Also, politicly the Republicans will face a revolt from the base, which some Republicans fear more than death itself. So, a tax hike won't happen.

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      Ms. SSM

      One must consider what is realistic i think not just ones preferred policy position. If there are no revenue increases it’s a complete non starter for Dems. This Dem is firmly in shoot the hostage territory. I say agree to nothing. But if they were making a serious plan and it was all spending cuts I wouldn’t consider that serious. To agree to such - that’s a death sentence for a Dem politician. To agree to that for raising the debt limit is not a politically viable position for a Dem.

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        Scarlette Tarte

        Me too. I too say 'shoot the hostage'.

        I am sick to the death of this Republican hostage taking, and I am letting the Dems know it with phone calls to their offices.

        I tell them "we have your back, do not enter into any negotiations with these people at any point".

        This is what you get when you pull this crap too often...we now literally don't care. We just want you now to live with the repercussions of your decisions and it that means we too will suffer, so be it.

        Bring it on.

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        1. Avatar photo
          Probably Wrong

          I am working on a theory that both political parties are repeating the sins of their opponents, just on a few years of delay.

          Right now the Democrats are having a Tea Party moment while the Republicans have decided to Occupy Washington. “Those bastards have gotten away with so much, by God it’s time for some brinksmanship,” say the Democrats, while the Republicans chaotically shriek vague nonsense into the void about bringing down a corrupt system.

          Now you understand what it felt like to be Ted Cruz in 2013. But it seems to have been a bad idea then as well.

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    2. AJLiberty

      This will need to be a political process, rather than a political show. A bipartisan committee will need to study all recommendations and see the aggregate impact.

      I agree that properly handing inflation is the short-term priority. If we drive the economy into recession, then you kill the golden goose and defeat any modest short-term deficit gains. You can take money out of circulation by taxing the lower-middle and middle class, but politically it's obviously a non-starter. Businesses need to produce more goods, but is tax policy the right way to influence this? I think Nick's point is that long-term deficit reduction needs bipartisan sacrifice. I think that's true, but as I said down-thread, the biggest hurdle is achieving bipartisanship...at all. Our politicians needs to find some arena where compromise is possible, so Congress can start being functional. More culture wars just seems like the opposite of doing that.

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  9. Jim S

    Gee guess what, adding revenue to these programs is also reform and deficit negative.

    My guess is there are plenty of reforms that would get plenty of Democratic votes. Republicans are just not interested in anything except cuts.

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    1. Ken Motamed

      Given our demographic trends, raising taxes alone won't be enough. There will have to be benefits cuts. It's a bitter pill that we have to take sooner or later.

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  10. Srhritz

    "When you send performers to Washington, don’t expect anything more than a performance, I suppose."

    That says it all. We get the government we deserve. Of course, with the exception of Dispatch subscribers who deserve so much more than this.

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    1. Ken Motamed

      Unfortunately, even Dispatch subscribers have only two choices.

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