Electability’s Last Stand

The politics of Trump’s trial date.

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Former President Donald Trump speaks to the media at Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport after being booked at the Fulton County jail on August 24, 2023. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

A lightbulb went off in my head when news broke that Donald Trump will stand trial in Washington on March 4, 2024 for crimes related to his post-election “Stop the Steal” campaign. “That’s the day before Super Tuesday,” I chirped in the Dispatch Slack channel.

To which a colleague replied, “He’ll have it all locked up by then, Nick. Don’t worry.”

Well, yes. Probably.

One could argue that March 4 is a fortuitous bit of scheduling for the defendant-in-chief, relatively speaking. It’s not ideal—for obvious reasons, he’d prefer to have each of his trials pushed off until after the election—but it beats having to face a jury before any ballots are cast. By March 4, the hugely influential first primaries will have already taken place and early voting in Super Tuesday races will be underway. All those votes will be banked before anything can happen in court that might change Republican voters’ minds.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    “I have a pet theory that Ron DeSantis is doing better with primary voters than the polls would have us believe.”

    I think there’s something to that, but I’m shocked to see you say that. I thought you were supposed to be a pessimist.

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  2. John

    I subscribed to Dispatch b/c of Allahpundit, but these Trump prognostications of his are getting tiresome.

    So…. Here’s DEFINITELY what’s gonna happen:

    - Trump doesn’t go to trial before Super Tuesday
    - Trump wins Republican primary
    - Trump loses decisively to Joe Biden
    - Trump claims election fraud, BUT
    - Margin of victory is too overwhelming.
    - Republican voters scream “voter fraud” and “media bias!” but , having been through this before, finally realize…
    - a Loser is a Loser
    - Trump realizes his “brand” can’t keep absorbing defeat and calls it quit.
    - Media interest in Trump plummets
    - D.A. interest in “Trump conviction” plummets
    - Trump pleads out (no jail time)
    - Trump spends the next 10-15 years selling coins
    - or blankets
    - or coffee mugs, etc.

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    1. Walter.L.Appling

      Totally believable except “Margin of victory is too overwhelming.”

      Neither Trump nor his cult can ever allow such a thought to occur.

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  3. Hallcmh

    Just finished reading and as always, so glad you came here from HotAir. And I plan to drink heavily tonight. Gawd.

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    Matt Sherman

    Honestly, I'm so fed up with the crap coming out of the GOP I just wish they would shoot the hostage already and get it over with. Then we could finally move on and see folks try to build something new rather than to be led around by these bullies and shysters.

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    Tim

    The key to life is to have low expectations. If we expect the 2024 race to be between the two worst candidates in America, Joe Biden & Donald Trump, and it isn't, viola! our low expectations will be exceeded.

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    1. Jackrabbit McQuivers

      I can imagine many, many (hundreds? thousands?) candidates worse than Biden. I can't imagine a single one worse than Trump.

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  6. Avatar photo
    Azlefty

    IIRC President The Donald won all of the delegates in several early states in the 2016 primary with about 35% of primary votes because of the GOP's plurality-take-all delegate awarding rules in those states' parties. If at least 2 other candidates remain in the race until Super Tuesday, this will probably occur again. I am highly skeptical that enough of his supporters peel off by Super Tuesday to prevent that from happening in 2024, no matter what happens in various courtrooms.

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  7. Avatar photo
    Donald E. L. Johnson, Florida

    At this point, it is clear that voters will decide to vote Democrat regardless of who Democrats nominate.

    There is no way Trump can be or should be elected president of the United States. It will just be awhile before the pundits get it.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Clifford Luebben

      Oof, to have your confidence. I mean, if I was forced to bet, I agree with you, but not with near that confidence

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  8. Dougrhon

    "If GOP delegates led a floor revolt against him in the belief that he couldn’t win the general election, it would break the party."

    The party is already broken. This might save it in the long run. As I've said over and over no party can maintain a coalition between rational conservatives and the Trump cult. One or the other needs to be expelled.

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  9. Avatar photo
    Donald E. L. Johnson, Florida

    Only 28% of Republicans would vote for a convicted Donald Trump. There is a 90% chance he’ll be convicted before the GOP convention, I think.

    Maybe 100% before the November 2024 general election.

    Twenty-eight percent of 64 million is less than 20 million votes for Trump in the general election. By the election polls will indicate that Trump will be lucky to get 30% of the votes. That will cause a lot of Trump voters to stay home and a lot of Democrats to pile on.

    When will Chris Christie do the math for Republicans?

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    1. Goatprairie

      "a convicted Donald Trump."

      Here's hoping.

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  10. Avatar photo
    Rboard

    I want to believe you. But if Trump is convicted, and the only way to keep him out of prison is for him to pardon himself, I think his supporters will be too loyal to abandon him to the "justice" of his political enemies.

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