Fear of Commitment

On the protest votes—both of them—in Michigan.

By
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Mayor of Dearborn, Michigan, Abdullah Hammoud delivers remarks at an "Uncommitted for Joe Biden" primary election night watch party on February 27, 2024. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

The biggest political story in America as I write this is the share of Democrats in Michigan who preferred to vote for “uncommitted” in Tuesday’s primary than for Joe Biden. When the smoke cleared, 13.3 percent had done so.

The share of Republicans who voted for Nikki Haley over Donald Trump was precisely twice that.

For days, Trump’s critics on the left and right have complained of a double standard in which the media plays up Biden’s electoral weakness while downplaying his opponent’s. If an incumbent president were to lose 40 percent of the primary vote in an early state, they argue, newspapers typically would screech with alarm about dissension within his party and electoral doom looming in November.

Well, Trump is—basically—an incumbent president for Republican purposes. And he lost 40 percent in South Carolina.

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  1. Matsson

    "For most partisans, exile is a steep psychological penalty. Not for me and not for most Dispatch readers, I suspect, but for the average not-very-engaged conservative the thought of being politically homeless indefinitely will be frightening."

    I think this is kind of contradictory, Nick, and from one hard-wired pessimist to another, not even true enough to worry about. Most "partisans" are "engaged", and thus know the Party's over, no pun intended. I'm thinking of politicians like McConnell and donors: I'm sure it hurts to see what their (our) party has become, but they're retiring or checking out (eg, Mitch, Ben Sasse, Gallagher). And an "average not-very engaged conservative" probably is not too knowledgeable of all the labels and if told, "You're a RINO liberal because you don't support Trump, you Uniparty stooge!", they won't care to call themselves "independent" in a second. You want me "exiled" from Trump(Jones)town? My pleasure, nutso.

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    Sad Trombone

    I think you're too pessimistic. From my perspective, Trumpism will die with Trump - the cult of personality is the evil, not populism or neo-isolationism. Suppose J.D. Vance ran in 2028; do you think he would refuse to commit to maintaining support for Ukraine if it meant the difference in being nominated? I am the most adamant NeverTrumper I know, I changed my party registration to independent on my lunch hour the day after Trump got the nomination in 2016. But even I agree with the general thrust of his policies while hating his character and rhetoric. We have been patsies in trade deals in general and with China in particular. NATO should not stick us with the check while they whine and kvetch about our missteps. The border and immigration reform should be our first, second and third priority...
    A foolish consistency is what got the Republicans in the ditch in the first place; worshiping Ayn Rand on entitlements and healthcare or imposing democracy on Iraq were unforced errors we should have been punished for. If the Trumpkin unwashed can be kept without Trump's personality we will be a better center-right party for it.

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  3. Rev. Gary Peterson

    I hope you are wrong. I do know that I've reregistered as a Republican for the first time in eight years so that I can vote for Nikki Haley in our closed Louisiana primary. Looking forward to it. I plan to write her in in November.

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  4. R. James

    " 'The 25 percent' behind Nikki Haley won’t be anywhere near 25 percent by Election Day."

    It doesn't have to be anywhere near 25 percent to cost Trump the election. It's like the Dispatch writers don't understand the motivations of their own readers...

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    Theirnscott

    Amen. Illiberalism needs to be beaten out of them.

    Maybe I missed an article but I’m really interested in understanding the make up of the electorate that’s giving Trump his lead in the swing states.

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    This comment has been deleted

  7. Aaron

    I think it's time for journalists to start focusing on who the Trump judges will be in his next term. Many of my Republican friends are laboring under the illusion it will be more Fed Soc types. But as Nicks says, they need to tell themselves something

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    Christine Parker

    If you wonder why intelligent conservative-leaning folks aren't clutching their pearls over Trump, this is a good example.

    https://reason.com/2024/02/29/berkeley-students-violently-shut-down-event-featuring-israeli-attorney/

    Trump may be running now, but he'll be dead soon. Meanwhile these people will assume control for the future.

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    1. Scianti7

      Yes, but so did the hippies after they became yuppies & business people. Antisemitism is no joke & I'm not excusing it, they should be held accountable according to the law & their school's conduct policies, & I believe they will be.

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        Christine Parker

        Nope, not the same at all. These are not peaceful sit-ins or love-ins. And this isn't a one off.

        I watched in horror when Stanford Law Students - the people who will be in charge after Trump and Biden - shouted down a Federal Judge, and told him they hoped his wife and daughter would get raped. These aren't randos in flyover country; this is one of the top law schools in the nation. The administration supported the protesters. One had a very clever sign indeed - "Judge Duncan Can't Find the Clit." Frankly, that's a very Trumpy thing to say. I watched USC law students scream and pound desks for over an hour to prevent Ilya Shapiro from speaking. The administration backed the students. Ilya is not a radical and I expect he is a Never Trumper but the mob came for his head anyway and he was forced out of a job at Georgetown Law, my alma mater. (His crime was to suggest that in choosing a SC nominee should be based on something other than race and gender.) John McWhorter has convinced me Woke is a religion and you can't reason with religious zealots.

        So yes, Trump has bad ideas about tariffs and will never address Social Security. He'll embarrass us a bit for a few more years. I expect he will face more resistance than any president in history.

        I fear the left and their response to Trump far more than I fear Trump. Trump is almost 80, he's never been that very stable genius and he's only going to continue to decline. He cannot unilaterally ban abortion. He cannot rewrite immigration law. Congress will be blue and won't give an inch.

        But that lady who thought it so impactful to insult a federal judge's ability to please a woman is on track for federal clerkships, positions on Capitol Hill, eventual political office. That guy with a Trump flag in his truck is on his way to WalMart. You have incorrectly identified the one with actual power.

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        1. Scianti7

          they should be held accountable according to the law & their school's conduct policies, & I believe they will be.

          Fear leads to poor choices

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            Christine Parker

            The schools back them - in both of the most egregious instances, the administration was present and allowed it to continue. A professor sat and smiled as his students banged desks and walls and chanted, "Black Lawyers Matter" for over an hour at Ilya Shapiro. Watching it was discomfiting. Nobody and I mean nobody was seeking to calm things down.

            I saw the poor FedSoc (NO they are not a terrorist org) students who wanted to hear the judge speak sit there with their heads down.

            I agree with you 100% on your last statement.

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          EmmyCab

          Spot on.

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            Christine Parker

            Emmy, I keep thinking you are Emma Camp, a reason writer. Do you play in the comments anywhere else? I’m somewhat active at WSJ.

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    2. Aaron

      Like many of my Republican friends you mistakenly think the woke populists and the MAGA populists are bad for each other. They desperately need each other, and they are equally bad. The main difference is that one group controls a major party and the other doesn't come close

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    Christine Parker

    Hey guys - I have a question. The articles suggest and many comments openly state that if we live in a country where a second Trump term is probable, the country is over.

    What shall we do with our remaining time? Is there any point in living beyond November 2024? If Biden wins, do I choose not to spike my kool-aid, depending on the results?

    Clearly a second Trump term is possible if not probable, so what should I do? Leave? Party til the money runs out? All discussion is useless.

    I really want to know. How is a person supposed to respond to claims that the world will end in November if Trump wins? Why build a career or bother to save money? Shouldn't I just let my dog eat pizza? And maybe drink some good wine?

    What shall we do with the time that remains? Or do you expect me to stick around to help clean up the rubble when everyone else loses their minds after a Trump win? I'm not a janitor.

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    1. Wes.Bridges

      And if we’re going to die anyway, what’s the point of paying taxes?

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        Christine Parker

        First, this is a perfect example of the kind of comment I can't quite understand. Are you joining me in mocking those who claim the country is over if Trump wins another term, or are you mocking me as if I'm suggesting this is a simple "we're all going to die anyway so..."

        I am responding to a prophecy, not a biological fact. If a second Trump term is the literal end of America, what shall I do? I mean seriously: nobody does anything but gnash their teeth and wail. Nobody explains HOW Trump will overthrow the government and yet I am promised he will.

        It was offered as a bit of levity, but it's actually a symptom of a MUCH larger problem. Consider that a non-negligible percentage of the population actually believes a second Trump term would be the end of the American experiment. That means they don't feel certain that the government will even exist this time next year, or if banks will exist. If you don't feel confident that the current laws and government will still exist in the next year, you're going to prioritize very different things. You may also be willing to take extreme action in the face of a perceived existential threat.

        And let's be honest: none of the people claiming this doom and gloom have decided to empty their 401k while it still exists and spend their last days in the sun. People say it's all over, but they don't act as if the country will end.

        The most dangerous thing about Trump was, is, and always will be our response to him. And this time it won't be snarky pink hats and "RESIST" bumper stickers. If he is the threat many think he is, I can imagine feeling justified in assassinating him. Heck, it occurred to me once because I fleetingly thought I'd prefer prison to more fighting about Trump.

        Anyway, what's the point indeed. Nihilism without even a hint of humor.

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    2. Aaron

      If you really do want to know you have to stop thinking about Trump and start thinking about populism. And be prepared to live in a country that looks more like Turkey or Russia than what you are accustomed to.

      Ask yourself what has actually made America great. What has led over time to you typing on your technologically advanced device, in your comfortable house, without fear of government retribution? Building a career and buying good wine and a good dog. I hope you have thought about it, and I imagine you have.

      It's because of all the things Trump and populism are against. Free markets (i.e., globalists) free elections (ie elections he doesn't win) and institutional loyalty (i.e not personal loyalty). Those things will slowly go away under populism. Under populism you'll have to bribe your local MAGA loyalist to get a business license, you won't actually know that your building is up to code, and your high paying job will go away because your industry won't exist in a country run by corrupt party loyalists. And you won't be that motivated to save money because any day you could lose it on trumped up charges, because you weren't sufficiently useful or loyal to the party.

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        Christine Parker

        So Trump is now Lenin too?

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        1. Aaron

          As I said, it's too simplistic to compare individual to individual. It's about the populist movement- if Lenin was an American instead of a Soviet he would be a different person. We don't know exactly what the Trump version of America will look like in 5 -10 years.

          What we do know clearly is that populism destroys everything it touches. As Steve Bannon said- 'in our movement Trump is a moderate. In 10 years you'll be begging for him back.'

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            Christine Parker

            Are you under the impression we've never been populists before? Is populism, in and of itself, always a path to dictatorship?

            Why are you citing Steve Bannon? You think there aren't any equally nutty people on the left? We're going to go to war over.... STEVE BANNON?

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          Kizedek

          Putin. Is Putin Lenin? No, he’s a populist fascist authoritarian. Trump wants to be Putin.

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            Christine Parker

            Putin was a continuation. We are talking about revolution, so yes, Lenin. And Hitler. And Mussolini. And Idi Amin. All rolled into one game show host.

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      2. PROMETHEUS

        But the subways in major cities may become adorned with chandeliers.

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    EmmyCab

    “Unlike traditional Republicans, populists would rather lose to Democrats than compromise on their worldview. They prefer a smaller, “purer” party that loses consistently to a larger, more ideologically diverse one that wins.”

    Isn’t this actually true of both MAGA populists *and* traditional Republicans (i.e., Never-Trumpers)?

    Example: “Nothing would be more encouraging for the future of the right than a schism this fall that debilitates populists’ chances of winning elections near-term. They won’t be reasoned out of illiberalism, but it might—eventually—be electorally beaten out of them.”

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    1. Dnels

      If the Trumpists had any sort of policy base that could be negotiated there would be a chance. Their first point is slavish loyalty to Trump, which is non-negotiable. I would even argue that there have been many concessions made to the MAGAnuts; the immigration bill, voting for the idiotic impeachment hearings, supporting campaigns by loony tunes like MTG, Gatez, and Kari Lake. hell giving someone as manifestly unfit as MTG plumb committee assignments. What do they ever get back but threats, insults, primaries, and votes against basic procedure to sink good bills that aren't MAGA enough, like the boarder bill?

      They need to lose, lose bigly, and lose often, until they act like sane people with actual policy beliefs.

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        EmmyCab

        I think you're kind of proving my point. Whatever the reasons, both factions prefer a smaller, "purer" party and would rather lose to Democrats than compromise on their worldview.

        Probably my beef is that Nick introduces this idea beginning with "Unlike traditional Republicans..." when, in reality, the two factions are very alike in this regard.

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          Christine Parker

          Mirror images.

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