Is This Cake Baked?

Despair about the state of the Republican primary.

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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis stands on the banks of the Rio Grande during a press conference on June 26, 2023 in Eagle Pass, Texas. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

Now is the summer of our discontent. 

Ron DeSantis declared his presidential candidacy more than a month ago. Donald Trump has been under federal indictment for nearly three weeks. Yet not since early April have the polls shifted in a meaningful way.

And that shift wasn’t in the direction most Dispatch readers were probably hoping.

If you’re counting on the debates to shake things up, bear in mind that the first one won’t be held for another two months. We’ll be on the cusp of fall before Trump’s opponents get a nationally televised introduction to Republican voters. And that introduction might be complicated by … counterprogramming.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Mick.Staton

    The Republican primary is playing out exactly as I expected it to. That is why I said so many times that DeSantis would be a fool to run for President in 2024.

    Yes, Nick. The cake is baked. It has been ever since the Republican Party and elected Republican officials supported the insane "stolen election" lie of 2020. Now we have to ride out another disastrous Trump Presidential run. The only way we get off this ride is when Trump loses in 2024 and the party finally turns its back on him.

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  2. Tom Johnson

    We need more politicians and media folks to acknowledge that this nominating process sucks.

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  3. Jaybrown

    Nick is souring on DeSantis.

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  4. ConProf

    National polls don’t mean dick. The only polls that matter are IA, NH, SC. This piece has been written ten times before by Nick. We’re not even six months out yet from the first primary. Give it a rest.

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    CJ

    "It means vetoing a bill that was supported by nearly all of Florida’s Republican legislators because it might have given Trump the tiniest opening to accuse him of being soft on crime."

    98% of the state House, 100% of the state Senate in favor. But because DeSantis vetoed it, FL Republicans in control of both houses refuse to try to override lest they make DeSantis look bad. This is literally the entire purpose of the GOP-run FL state legislature at this point: to aid DeSantis's presidential run by whatever means necessary, regardless of the impact to the people who actually fucking elected them before DeSantis even announced his candidacy. No matter how good a bill might be, it can't go through if it doesn't help DeSantis.

    It may sound insane, but it's long been par for the course for the FL GOP. The FL legislature stayed red enough to do all of this due to actual, proven, heavily documented criminal electoral fraud that materially impacted the outcome of elections (Google "FL 2020 Ghost candidate" for details) for which the GOP chair of the county where I used to live was tried and convicted (among others), but my "elected" state Senator and others who benefited from this GOP criminal fraud refused to resign, and subsequently voted in favor of further gerrymandering to protect their party's majority. Investigations were slow-walked by DeSantis, many were never brought to justice, those who were got slaps on the wrist.

    Honestly if Trump wanted to nail DeSantis on being soft on crime, he can start with that whole barely-buried scandal.

    This lunacy being why the wife and I left, and will likely never return except to visit family. The FL GOP has long been a cesspool and it is only getting worse; if the New Right and New GOP want to turn it into their power base they're going to get sucked into that swamp and get what is coming to them.

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  6. Michael.Terrien

    Thanks. I'm going to go cut myself now.

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  7. Avatar photo
    Ray Salemi

    One cannot claim that “Trump but electable” was a viable strategy and then be disappointed that the people you believed liked Trump’s terrible policies are voting for Trump. You’re saying that most Republicans like Trump’s policies.

    What a terrible thing to say.

    The strategy should have been to offer Republicans “Not Trump”.

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  8. Jim S

    If we elect Trump for a second term it will be because voters put him there.

    All the bobbing and weaving and prognosticating about ‘why’ or ‘who is to blame’ will be irrelevant.

    And frankly I don’t care anymore. If America is that upset about a boring middle of the road President like Biden then maybe a second Trump term will make them happy. Personally I plan to spend a lot less time focused on politics and a lot more time focused on the positive things in life.

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  9. Avatar photo
    BillAZ

    "For traditional conservatives, the argument for preferring him to Tim Scott or Nikki Haley is circumstantial..."

    Why would "traditional conservatives" get sucked into preferring DeSantis at all? Partisan Republicans I could understand but the same fundamental argument one can make against Trump in 2016 is pretty darn close to the one can make against DeSantis in 2024. He is after all reprising his best "minnie-me" imitation of the Trumpian "Build That Wall" gestalt .

    Cheney in her latest interview raised the possibility that the Republican Party may not be "salvageable", i.e., "we're electing idiots". It looks like she is contemplating throwing her hat into the 2024 Presidential ring. How her candidacy fares among traditional conservatives may be the canary in the coal mine on that question.

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      JDW

      For me a traditional conservative, it's not Trump's policies that make him evil and unqualified. It's his insanity and corruptness. He is a middle of the road guy on policy. I think the crazy though is super dangerous.

      Why would I support DeSantis? Well if he is the only one who can take out Trump I'm supporting him. In fact I'm supporting every person at every point who can do that. I hope the Trumpists realize that a lot of Republicans just won't support Trump and that he is doomed in the general. McCarthy is a fool if he thinks otherwise.

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      1. Avatar photo
        BillAZ

        What distinguishes Trump is his contempt for the law and norms of liberal democracy. DeSantis certainly appears to wish to extend that approach or at least promote it to serve his own ends and “respect his audience”. Any policy considerations are all secondary to that.

        I’m not sure how that is faithful to “traditional conservatism”.

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  10. Avatar photo
    The Bell Tower

    Until there are actual votes, I find all this poll panic to be tiresome. We have a long way to go and every surge or drop in the polls is a mirage for the benefit of pundits to argue about it. I think we’re very likely to see another Trump presidency and given his behavior out of office, I’m not entirely convinced we aren’t better off with him back in the White House and term limited before the next election for him to screw up.

    I’m only kind of kidding about that.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Chris Lynch

      In other words, let’s get it over with? That might not be a bad idea. I had a nightmare that Trump gets nominated for the next three cycles and loses.

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      1. Avatar photo
        The Bell Tower

        Yeah, exactly. I suppose he’ll be too old in 2028 but will he? He’s more of a menace to the republic when he loses. If he had won the last election, his most egregious crime would never have happened. He’d just be a terrible second term president. We’ve had plenty of those.

        Of course, this is all just fanciful baloney like killing baby Hitler or something. He’s here and his gonna continue to be giant pain in the ass unless he falls off a building (and preferably lands on Biden. And Harris).

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        1. Avatar photo
          Chris Lynch

          Paragraph two: pure gold.
          Gets my vote for “who won the internet today?” :D

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