The Unpollable Election

(Photo of Donald Trup by Scott Eisen/Getty Images; photo of Joe Biden by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

There’s no point in reading this newsletter next year.

I shouldn’t say that, as it’s bad for business. Let me rephrase: You should definitely read this newsletter next year and should happily pay for the privilege of doing so. Maybe even send Steve and Jonah a note with your subscription order saying, “Thanks for being you.”

What you shouldn’t do is take anything you see in this column too seriously, at least as it pertains to forecasting the election.

If Donald Trump ends up annihilating Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley in the early states, as I expect, the general election campaign will begin in earnest by the end of January. Over the nine months that follow, we’ll spend many hours together parsing polling. There will be endless statistical sturm und drang and much earnest navel-gazing by yours truly about what the latest 3-point shift among demographic XYZ might mean.

And it’ll all be very silly. The hard truth is that, in this cycle of all cycles, no one knows anything.

This content is available exclusively to Dispatch members
Try a membership for full access to every newsletter and all of The Dispatch. Support quality, fact-based journalism.
Already a paid member? Sign In
Comments (212)
Join The Dispatch to participate in the comments.
Load More