Attack on Israel Puts Foreign Affairs on the 2024 Map

Plus: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says he may spoil the race—for both Biden and Trump.

By and
16
President Joe Biden speaks on the terrorist attacks in Israel alongside Secretary of State Antony Blinken from the State Dining Room at the White House on October 7, 2023 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Samuel Corum/Getty Images)

It’s Monday. Afghanistan’s handover to the Taliban was built up over years; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was telegraphed for weeks; Hamas’ sudden strike from Gaza into southern Israel took the whole world—other than their co-conspirators—by surprise. We’re in a different world today than we were last time this newsletter hit your inbox.

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  • In the wake of Hamas’ surprise Saturday terror attacks on south Israel, President Joe Biden reaffirmed his administration’s “rock-solid and unwavering” support for Israel and proclaimed that Israel “has the right to defend itself and its people, full stop.” Many congressional Republicans and Democrats followed suit, expressing strong support for Israel. Sen. Lindsey Graham commended Biden’s “strong statement”: “There will be pressure to limit Israeli operations, as in the past, but I expect Congress and the Biden administration to stay strong and not give into such pressure.”
  • Several hard-left Democratic lawmakers took a different approach, calling for immediate deescalation on both sides of the conflict. Rep. Cori Bush of Missouri said in a statement that “violations of human rights do not justify more violations of human rights, and a military response will only exacerbate the suffering of Palestinians and Israelis alike.” “As part of achieving a just and lasting peace,” she added, “we must do our part to stop this violence and trauma by ending U.S. government support for Israeli military occupation and apartheid.”
  • The sudden conflict puts unexpected pressure on House Republicans to choose a new speaker, with the House essentially paralyzed and unable to respond until a new presiding officer is elected. Acting Speaker Patrick McHenry’s role is largely ceremonial, amounting essentially to overseeing the process of selecting a new speaker; the fact that the House has never before removed a speaker midstream means the legal issues around whether he can—for instance—receive crucial intelligence briefings remains an untested legal area.
  • Republican presidential contenders immediately blamed President Joe Biden for the war now unfolding in Israel. Their comments were punctuated by a tweet from Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, who claimed Biden’s “negotiation funded the attack” and declared the president directly “complicit.” Scott was presumably referring to a deal the Biden administration made with Tehran to unlock Iran’s access to $6 billion in previously blocked funds in exchange for the release of five American hostages. That money is still sitting in a Middle East bank account.
  • Nikki Haley’s campaign claims the Republican presidential contender raked in more than $11 million in the third quarter fundraising period ending September 30. The former South Carolina governor, on the rise in public opinion polls, will report $11.6 million in cash on hand, with $9.1 million available to spend in the GOP primary. “We have seen a big surge in support and have real momentum,” Haley spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas says in a statement issued Monday. 

Will War in Israel Scramble the 2024 Primary?

Even with a land war raging in Europe for more than a year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the unfolding 2024 presidential campaign has focused primarily on domestic issues. The conflagration in Israel that erupted Saturday is poised to elevate foreign affairs, opening new battle lines in the race for the Republican nomination.

Unlike the divisions roiling Republicans over Ukraine, support for the Jewish state after a deadly, surprise attack by the Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas is virtually unanimous among the GOP contenders. But some Republican presidential contenders seized on the fresh military conflict in the Middle East to paint their primary opponents as naive appeasers whose dovish foreign policy would make the United States, and American allies, more vulnerable to attacks from adversarial regimes and terrorists.

“I call on Donald Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Ron DeSantis to abandon the language of appeasement—to say that we will stand with Israel, we will stand strong with Ukraine, we will stand as the leader of the free world,” former Vice President Mike Pence said over the weekend while campaigning in Iowa, referring to the former president, the wealthy biotech entrepreneur, and Florida’s governor, respectively. 

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  1. Wsampson

    So you can't find real or qualified sources so how about a Republican consultant.

    BTW - Biden did what he said he would do here and in foreign affairs. Such short memory for getting Europe to bond together for Ukraine. Since your attribution is so weak - just come out and say this is how we at the Dispatch feel. It would be more honest.


    "It is potentially devastating to President Biden’s re-election campaign,” a Republican consultant in Washington says. “He campaigned on bringing stability back to D.C., the White House and the world. But what we’ve seen is tremendous instability economically—inflation, interest rates—at the southern border; chaos in a lot of major cities; and, war in the Middle East involving our closest ally Israel.”

    “Trump’s claims that none of this would have happened on my watch will resonate,” added a second Republican consultant, who is based in a Midwestern battleground state. “It may feel specious to those who read Foreign Affairs, but not many people in Allegheny, Kent, or Pima counties have subscriptions. It’s simple, logical and believable on its face.”

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    Michael Berkowitz

    I strongly favor a "maximum pressure" approach to Iran, so I oppose the Administration's whole posture as well as its specific actions on the matter, like freeing this $6B up for Iran (although like everyone, my heart went out to the American prisoners and their families).

    That said, I'm absolutely disappointed with Senator Scott's characterization of President Biden as complicit in the Hamas attack. Not because the money isn't US money or because it hasn't been spent yet, and certainly not because it will only be used for humanitarian purposes -- knowing the check is in the mail is something Iran can literally take to the bank, and nobody seriously believes that the money, or other money that it frees up, won't be used for evil. But the distance between an unwise concession to Iran and the Hamas murder of babies is so great that calling it complicity is, as Jonah Goldberg might say, grotesque.

    President Biden so far seems to be saying and doing all the right things regarding the situation in Israel. I only hope the gravitational pull of the "peace process" and the pictures of Palestinian children crying next to rubble with which the MSM will surely bombard us don't pull him off course.

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  3. JohnCitizen

    Thank God for The Dispatch (and the Bulwark) at a time like this! Reasonable, fact-driven, solution-oriented, home to center, left-of-center, and right-of-center, but all the same very principled. Standing up civility, reason, and honest debate is heroic these days.

    I think Biden gave a great mini-speech about the atrocities. It was unequivocal. I think more needs to be made of the fact that Hamas not only attacked Israel and the Jewish people, but America as well. Americans are dead, wounded, or kidnapped. American politicians, in particular, need to be reminded of that (I'm thinking of a certain "Squad" here). As a Detroit native, I take special offense at Rep Tlaib who honestly seems to be a Palestinian first. She can't be content w/the US & Michigan flags in her office. The flag of a non-existent country has to fly, too. Even as that potentially future nation's people celebrate the atrocities.

    I'm not a fan of Netanyahu and, as an American (first) and an American Jew & supporter of Israel (second) I was deeply offended of his embrace of Israel's far right and their monkeying w/the judiciary. But an accounting for Bibi will come later. As for the Palestinians, someone said--it might have been Golda Meir--"they never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity." They may have just burned any last chance--ever--for a state of their own.

    And what kind of state would that be anyway? Who would be their George Washington? They believe themselves oppressed, so who is their Nelson Mandela? If you believe the slaughter of over 1,000 civilians is necessary for your cause, I argue your cause is inherently bankrupt and you do not deserve whatever type of "freedom" it is to which you aspire.

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  4. Djconner

    IMO we've been heading pretty inexorably for a world war between the forces of tyranny and the decadent democracies that are too scared to contemplate the realities, and so ignore them.

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  5. John

    What’s happening in Israel is not political. It’s raw sickness and hate by some so called human beings

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  6. Avatar photo
    John N.

    "Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s gadfly primary challenge against Joe Biden has been one of 2024’s most interesting sideshows."

    Really?

    Maybe to "inside baseball" folks like journalists at The Dispatch and elsewhere, but out here in the real world (ruby red Collier County, FL) not one person I've talked to about politics has ever mentioned this "gadfly primary challenge" nor the new independent candidacy.

    I mean, if there was an "interesting sideshow" and nobody cared, does it really exist?

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      Andrew Egger vertical-nib Author

      This is exactly the point: He didn't matter, now he matters.

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        John N.

        We'll see, of course, but I don't think he matters all that much now.

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        1. Avatar photocircle-angle-nib
          Andrew Egger vertical-nib Author

          In a close race, independent candidates don't need much support to matter.

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            John N.

            We'll see, I guess.

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    2. Djconner

      I think he'll get support from a very small number of cranks, plus the dwindling population of Boomers who reflexively vote for anyone named Kennedy on any ballot. I predict the sum total will probably be a fraction of what Jo Jorgenson got last time.

      It's maybe an "interesting sideshow" in the way watching the circus geek could be interesting, but no more.

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      1. Jaybrown

        "Boomers who reflexively vote for anyone named Kennedy on any ballot." Not this Boomer. You paint with a broad, unknowledgeable brush.

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        1. Djconner

          I was mostly joking, but it *was* true for a time that just having the Kennedy surname meant at least a free House seat.

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    3. John

      Just ignore him.

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        John N.

        Ignore who?

        😂

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    WJHEsq

    "A Kennedy event has a bit of the complete-outsider, Madagascar-type energy that powers a Trump rally, but with an enormous helping of hippie granola on top..."

    Great, now I have the image of RFK Jr. as Mort.

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