The Sweep: How Economics Will Shape the Midterms

Plus: We’re not done talking about Virginia.

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Campaign Quick Hits

Where the RNC’s head Is At:

How Redistricting Is Going: Well, this kind of sums it up: “The new map in Texas would reduce the state’s 12 existing competitive districts to one.” But just in case you need to see competitive house districts disappearing in picture form:

Post-Virginia Autopsy for Democrats: Center-left think tank Third Way released its report to Politico after focus grouping Democrats in Virginia after the loss a few weeks ago: “Voters couldn’t name anything that Democrats had done, except a few who said we passed the infrastructure bill.” And while they found that Biden voters “do not necessarily blame him for ongoing problems with the delta variant, inflation, or supply chain bottlenecks … these 2020 Biden voters had little positive to say about him right now, and many described disappointment or a sense that he is not doing well. They were reluctant to say he’s not up to the job, but they don’t feel like he’s getting it done right now.”

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  1. Avatar photo
    Charlie Hall

    "Voters couldn’t name anything that Democrats had done"

    That actually IS a messaging problem. The Virginia legislature in the past two years has enacted a huge amount of important legislation. And McAuliffe ignored that record.

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    Ben Connelly

    “ Contrary to the belief of some on the right, including the goofball caucus of the House GOP, top Democrats well and truly understand that the arrival of the Omicron variant of coronavirus and the lingering pandemic are massive political liabilities for their party.”

    Ha!

    “ Whether subsidizing vaccine refusal has significant effects on rates overall, it is at least a strong sign that the terrain may be shifting in Democrats’ favor.”

    Correct. It may not get me to vote D, but it’s sure going to make me not vote R if these vaccine shenanigans continue.

    Really appreciated Audrey’s analysis on VA. I hope the state GOP doesn’t go back to Trumprimaries next year.

    Soltis Anderson is Nate’s Godmother… interesting.

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    Angie

    Excellent piece as always Sarah, Audrey and Chris..lately pieces like yours are the only ones I can read without getting depressed...lol...

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  4. learnin4life

    Long live conventions if they can reduce the "Darwinian explosion of new types of Republican candidates" who represent the extreme elements of the party! This applies equally to the Den candidates on the fringes as well. The center is just fine for me, come and join me for a few decades.

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    David M

    Fantastic newsletter. Thanks

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  6. Raincheck

    Youngkin ran on competent governance. Something we don’t see a lot of anymore. And that Americans crave. Enough with the extreme posturing. Just do your jobs and make things work.

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  7. John M.

    First time commenter, but love reading this newsletter (along with the many others). I would be curious to learn more about the interaction between "the economy" and campaigns, particularly since it seems rather nebulous. I reside in Omaha and study the regional economy as a matter of profession, so the paragraph concerning Nebraska stood out to me. But even outside Nebraska, the high ratio of jobs available to job seekers is a major issue awaiting a solution.

    However, I quibble with the caveat about the labor force participation rate. A 2% reduction is historically very large, especially in a short, 2-year time frame. (In Nebraska, this translates to a reduction of the labor force by approximately 20,000 people... not insignificant!) Zooming out to other states or the nation, the labor force actually recovered a bit more than around these parts, but is still plateauing lower than the historical rate. Again, for this data series, movement in the 1-2 percentage point range is actually something to note.

    All of this is to say that a combination of automation and coaxing people back to the labor force is important to the long term economic well-being of the country. So my question is this: I probably agree with the assumption that a campaign focused on jobs likely won't resonate much if most people who want jobs can get one readily. However, could a successful campaign draw the connection between the not-simply-explained themes of participation and automation with other economic issues more discussed currently (i.e., inflation, supply chain)? Or am I asking too much for an elevated national discourse on economic issues?

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    JohnM.

    This was an excellent edition of The Sweep! I appreciated learning about the VA. convention (I had no idea about that). That gives me some hope. Here in Colorado, the state GOP tried to eliminate primaries solely because anyone (read: Dems) could vote in them. Thankfully, the effort failed. Lauren Boebert is my representative in the House, and the only chance we have in defeating her is via an open primary. Thanks, folks!

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    1. Avatar photo
      Charlie Hall

      Traditionally Republicans in Virginia have almost always had conventions rather than primaries.

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      Audrey Fahlberg vertical-nib Author

      We'll try to interview Rep. Boebert for this Friday's Uphill newsletter! She's had an eventful week to say the least.

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        Jeff Walden

        Not sure whether that interview would be must-read or must-not-read...

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      2. Gerald Cuesta

        Ugh

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  9. Avatar photo
    Phil H

    "Are Nominating Conventions the Virginia GOP’s New Secret Weapon?"

    I sure hope state nominating conventions, and ranked-choice voting, catch on. Those would have stopped Donald Trump.

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  10. Payette

    Good discussion, Sarah, Audrey, and Chris! I must admit that Rep Nancy Mace's duplicity and the GOP's anti-vaccine stance are disheartening, to say the least. Can anything help the GOP develop leaders of conscience?

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