The Sweep: What We Learned Last Week

Donald Trump’s hold on GOP primary voters isn’t absolute, but plenty of candidates will see his endorsement as valuable.

By and
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Split Decision in South Carolina

Republican Rep. Nancy Mace won her primary in the state’s 1st Congressional District; GOP Rep. Tom Rice lost his in the 7th District. Trump endorsed both their challengers. So why the split? Like with any race, there’s a lot going on at the local level and anyone who tries to fit an outcome into a neatly defined narrative is fooling himself. But let’s tackle a few of them. 

At the simplest level, Mace spoke out against Trump after January 6, but Rice actually voted to impeach him. I don’t doubt this had some impact. Mace worked on Trump’s 2016 campaign, but then she said on January 7 that Trump’s “entire legacy was wiped out,” but then she attacked Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for “exaggerat[ing] this experience [to] take advantage and politicize it,” but then she voted to hold Steve Bannon in criminal contempt of Congress, but then she filmed a campaign ad in front of Trump Tower. It’s hard to run a clean attack ad from the right against that, umm, mixed record. 

“Multiple Republican lawmakers asked about her political positioning, speaking only on condition of anonymity, described Mace as a pendulum,” to Politico, “swinging toward then away from Trump, followed by an overcorrection when she realized the GOP base began to rally behind him again after Democrats impeached him for a second time over Jan. 6.”

But Mace won by 8 points while Rice lost by 27 points. Can the impeachment vote account for a 35-point swing? 

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    “ Sadly, Santa Claus from North Pole, Alaska, didn’t advance.”

    You’d think name recognition would have helped him out. Especially since everyone knows a guy who flies around in the dark handing out property to everyone has to be a communist.

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    David Chen

    I cant believe I use to look up to Greitens. My more-liberal friend introduced me to his book 'Heart and the Fist' and I thought it was a solid read. Can't believe what he's turned out to be.

    Funny, cause in the book, he talks about how SEAL training is not this cleansing fire that only passes the good and righteous, and that many capable SEALs are still crappy people. Funny how prescient that turned out to be about the author himself.

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      Ralph S

      I wonder how the still strong Trump support would tolerate a prosecution of the former president (which does seem warranted). Certainly, Trump ought to be able to respond. But from what we have seen he does not respond with evidence, rather with vitriol and 3rd grade name calling. The bigger problem is some 60% of Republicans still think the election was fraudulently won.
      Are they interested in truth? Do they even have a concept of truth as commonly observable facts?

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        1. Gerald Cuesta

          Um, McCarthy who is a hack and excuser and enabler of trumps in many ways — I think the fella kinda sucks — yet, he has not written what you said he has.

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          JohnM.

          Right. And here we go again.
          A recent column by McCarthy on NR titled 'Liz Cheney Is Winning the January 6 Committee' has the lead paragraph reading, "She has used her platform to make a powerful showing that Trump is unfit and that Republicans would be on a suicide mission if they nominated him again."

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      2. Gerald Cuesta

        No

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        Dave Conant - MO

        Not really, and, no, they don't have an accurate concept of either truth or facts; hence the lack of interest.

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    Angie

    Always fun to read the Sweep, thanks Sarah and Audrey

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  5. Old Dragoon

    “Ma! Ma! Where’s my Pa?”
    “Running for the Senate. Ha, Ha, Ha!”
    (Recycled from Grover Cleveland’s 1884 campaign)

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    JR

    I don't see much of a difference between the ads from Greitens and Hartzler. Both are unappealing and both are rooted in fear. In the first case, it's of so-called RINOs; in the second, it's, well, everyone.

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  7. Carl Edman

    Amusing, if easily missed point from that poll: Being White is actually a disadvantage in Republican primaries! Admittedly, it is a small effect, possibly consistent with the null hypothesis. But how it can be reconciled with "the GOP is the party of White Supremacy" claims, I fail to see.

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      2sequoia

      Please explain.

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      1. Carl Edman

        Look at the Echelon Insights graph in the original article.

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    PWLaw

    That Walker has 2 previously undisclosed children is not the whole story. Walker has spoken a lot about children needing their fathers but he hasn’t lived what he preaches and that is the thrust of the story. Looking forward to someone at Dispatch reporting on all the negative things in Walker’s life— such as holding a gun to his wife’s head while threatening to kill her, and whether the GOP vetted him. This is newsworthy considering that it concerns flipping a Senate seat and Stirewalt says the Georgia Senate race is Democratic party’s most vulnerable. Did GOP simply conclude about Walker, without vetting, that he’s Black and well known in Georgia?

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      Barry Alexander

      I think it was more of a Trump thing. He can't resist celebrities, and of course morality means nothing to him. His endorsement seems to be enough in this case, maybe because Walker is also a pretty good duckspeaker for today's GOP partisans.

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        PWLaw

        Thanks!

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    Walt Hilker

    Another informative Sweep, Sarah and Audrey - thank you!

    I'd be curious as to your take on the platform adopted at the Texas GOP convention, and on the value and relevance of state GOP platforms generally. What the Texas GOP has adopted seems largely performative and unserious to me. Aside from pandering to the extreme faction of the party whose support it surely has already, what purpose is there in adopting such a platform? It must do far more harm than good for the party, no? Even if a platform has no real effect, doesn't it affect messaging - particularly, in this circumstance, benefitting the party's opponents?

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      Bayesian

      "Performative and unserious" is pretty clearly what a functional/working majority of the R base/primary electorate prefers, or at a bare minimum, does not mind - exhibit 1 for the prosecution: the 2016 POTUS primaries. Exhibit 2 of many - 2022 PA Gov primary.

      My assumption/guess is that the point of the Texas R platform is for internal consumption within the R base: kind of a Leninist strategy. I assume there is some inside baseball on the maneuvering that led up to it (maybe in Politico?).

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    Ralph S

    Just finished the Tuesday hearings. There was enough there to persuade me Trump needs to ante up real evidence. What he is doing did incite violence on Jan 6 and has given place to incitement to violence by folks such as Eric Greitens calls to go RINO hunting. It's not a direct call to violence. But it is certainly suggestive.
    I wonder if he is really concerned with anything beyond expressing the stewing rage in his deeply troubled soul.

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      Barry Alexander

      But he had a line in his 1/6 speech about being peaceful! Of course that makes him innocent! 🙄

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    2. Gerald Cuesta

      Um… I’m sorry, anyone with a clear eyed view of this man - maybe being from
      New York allowed me to have it more than those not from NYC - knew trump was a selfish chaotic - if humorous - scum bag for whom loyalty was a one way street and would destroy everything and anything that stood in the way of his whims. He was always like this. His want to be accepted in the ‘Hollywood’ elite tamed him because while people were laughing at him behind his back, he was lavished with public attention and the all important to him ‘ratings’. Giving him the presidency was always going to end badly for the country. I’m still Amazed some People are just seeing it now. As for his cult, they are hopeless and beyond condemnation.

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