The Biggest Questions Ahead of Today’s Speakership Election

Does Kevin McCarthy have a chance to appease his Freedom Caucus critics?

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House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy talks to fellow representatives on December 21, 2022, in the House chambers. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Good morning. The 118th Congress begins today, and it could kick off with chaos.

Republicans’ first order of business will be an attempt to elect a speaker when the chamber convenes around noon.

The House speaker directs the chamber’s agenda and is second in the presidential line of succession. With several far-right holdouts opposing GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy’s bid for the job, the process may require behind-the-scenes wrangling and multiple ballots.

That would be historic. It has been a century since a speakership race has needed more than one round of voting. McCarthy has pledged to hold on as long as it takes to win the speaker’s gavel, but if the math doesn’t add up for him members may begin to pitch alternatives. As they gear up for today’s proceedings, lawmakers and staff agree on this: How the race will unfold on the floor—and who will ultimately become speaker—is anyone’s guess.

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  1. Ogutierrez136

    Tremendous explainer Haley; thanks

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  2. Bill

    Pelosi was the Republican's bete noir because of here steely drive and competence in managing the House and her caucus. With McCarthy we get groveling.

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    Stephanie

    Thanks for the explanation and math for calculating how many votes are needed, should members be absent or vote “present.” Unless a dozen or so Democrats do that (and why would they?) I don’t see that helping McCarthy.

    Having said that, it’s quite possible that this has all been a lot of kayfabe or just a way for the bomb throwers to flex and show their power to throw sand in the gears. They might just vote McCarthy in, having made their point.

    That wouldn’t change the fact that they’d still be running the show and dictating to him.

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    JohnM.

    I really appreciate the detail and analysis you provided here, Haley. It's very helpful. Thank you.

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  5. DDT

    Question: Does anyone know why the Speaker of the House is elected prior to new members of the House being sworn in? Seems backwards to me.

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      Stephanie

      No business is conducted unless there’s a Speaker. It would be like having a business meeting with no one chairing or presiding.

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      1. DDT

        But how does it make sense to have members-elect cast votes for Speaker before they have been sworn in?

        And who is presiding when votes are cast? Is this the last act of the outgoing Speaker?

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          Stephanie

          You got me there. As it’s almost 1:30 they must be in session now. We could tune in to C-SPAN and observe, I suppose.

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            Stephanie

            I just watched the vote. Nancy Pelosi opened and adjourned and the Clerk ran the roll call vote with no one in the Speaker’s seat. (McCarthy was short by about a dozen votes on the initial round.)

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    Mister D

    Why is it the hard right that is holding the line? I would think what remains of the non-Trumpy moderates would have some resistance as well, and they are much more likely to find a winning coalition if they can convince Dems to vote for someone other than McCarthy. I hate what my party has devolved into, and find McCarthy to be one of the skeeviest pols in DC, which is a pretty high bar. I'm rooting for the chaos, because we need to have this confrontation sooner or later.

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    Earl King

    Idiotic nonsense that proves Democrats points. The GOP may be incapable of governing. This may also presage the investigations will be clown shows rather than information gathering serious efforts.

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    1. Kittyecws

      I don’t like McCarthy because he has gone on bended knees to Trump and now to the extreme right. How much will he concede to become speaker? He needs to get a backbone. I also noted Gingrich’s full-throated endorsement of McCarthy. He’s nothing but a pompous has been. I don’t know who would be a good candidate for Speaker, but I’d love to have Boehner or Ryan back on the job. Even those two sober-minded former Speakers couldn’t keep the rabble in line. It’s a shame. I haven’t recognized the Republican Party for several years. I once respected the conservatives who populated the party. They have been overruled for far too long. I shudder to think that “My Kevin” would be in line for the presidency.

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    EricRemcon@gmail

    I CANNOT wait for this initial scene in season 1 of the HCS (House Clown Show, streaming on all media channels) to end so that we can move on to a real topic. Maybe the next episode will cover something important like the investigation into the sourcing of Hunter Biden’s nanny’s budget for Chinese takeout or the crack pipe reimbursement schedule that Joe laid out for Hunter (he is “The Big Guy” after all, I’m sure his campaign fund was repaid).

    I agree entirely with Chris’s column today, it does not matter who is elected as lead clown. This is a boring storyline (though it could be made more interesting if they did a full-dress rehearsal, complete with makeup and big red noses ).

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    Edited to add:

    This not an attack on TD or Haley. I understand they need to cover it. I am just disgusted by the fact we only have one semi-functional party (Ds) in the House right now with bleak prospects for improvement any time soon.

    If we get what we deserve, after 10 votes (to finalize McCarthy’s humiliation) they will elect bonafide Mega MAGA populist, Jim Jordan so that our downward spiral can accelerate toward the implosion that will probably be necessary for a return to sanity.

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    DougAz

    I want 11 ballots.

    Solution: time sharing.

    2 weeks McCarthy.
    2 weeks Jeffries

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  10. Ed K

    Folks like Gaetz are petulant brats.

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      Stephanie

      I think the Stop the Steal folks like him are partially motivated to interfere with any process that would hold them responsible for January 6. I read that one demand of theirs would weaken the nonpartisan Congressional Ethics Commission. I can’t think of a single good reason to do something like that.

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    2. Sisharonsi

      Not only petulant, but also sleazy. Underage girls, anyone?

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