China’s Demographic Decline

China is getting old before getting rich.

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China’s population is getting older and older and analysts warn this could have significant global impact. Deputy Morning Editor of TMD Esther Eaton sits down with Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies to dig into the root causes behind the country’s demographic decline and the impact this will have on economic and labor conditions.

Show Notes:

Esther Eaton’s TMD Piece: China’s Looming Demographic Crisis

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  1. R. James

    China getting old before it got rich is not a new story. The writing has been on the wall for a long time and the early numbers about the population decline came out last summer. But I appreciate the topic and I think TD needs to talk more about China in general. The most pressing question in my mind regarding US-China relations, given the Chinese population is declining earlier then expected, when is that tip over point going to occur when the demographic crisis places significant socio-economic restraints on China's ability to project power abroad in the military-political-economic sphere? In other words, when is peak China going to occur? The answer to that question will be very important for assessing the risk window for a potential US-China conflict.

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    The Bell Tower

    During the 2020 Democratic debates, Bernie Sanders said the most quintessential Bernie thing ever:

    “When dictators do something good, you acknowledge that.”

    No, you don’t. He was talking about Cuba (of course) but is unclear to me that the One Child Policy was not genocide. It is further unclear to me that China’s “lifting people out of poverty” deserves the praise it seems to get in too many quarters in the west.

    Killing babies and little girls and dragging people from their ancestral homes so they can be forced to work in the cities (to say nothing of erasing unfavored ethnic groups like the Uyghurs) is not a model that deserves anything but scorn.

    The difference between China’s dictatorship and the American Republic is simple: the American system prioritizes freedom, individual autonomy and respect for human rights over the collective good. In China, everything is subordinated to the will and vision of the state.

    When we praise China, we’re saying the equivalent of “That Hitler guy built some good roads though.”

    I’m not saying that Scott or Esther were doing anything like that here. This was an excellent interview. I just think it bears repeating that the Chinese Communist Party is a repressive, brutal regime.

    It’s unsurprising to hear that they frown upon immigration because their vision is indistinguishable from Adolf’s in that they seek the hegemony of a specific race of humanity and there is no measure which they will not take in pursuit of that goal. The CCP deserves nothing but scorn and contempt.

    They don’t get enough of it.

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    1. R. James

      I agree. China's one child policy was a crime against humanity that also spectacularly backfired against the CCP. The only lessons that need to be taken away from the One Child Policy are never again and this is why planned economies don't work (unintended consequences/uncertainty principle).

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        The Bell Tower

        Even if it had worked, it’s abhorrent. That’s my point.

        You could raise California’s homeless rate tomorrow if you shoot all the homeless people. When it comes to China, I’m not interested in their poverty rate because I have no confidence that those numbers are true nor am I confident that even if they are true, they have been achieved without murdering, torturing or otherwise abusing people to get there.

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  3. Moscow Reader

    This was very interesting. I have following this topic for a while but this interview was such a good summary and explanation. Really enjoyed it. Thank you

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    Ben Connelly

    Fascinating! Great interview!

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    TheMatMan

    I thought this was an interesting conversation, but two points I'm a bit disappointed just passed without challenge/follow-up. Scott completely sidestepped why immigration isn't as viable an option for China as it is for Western societies. Any answer that doesn't touch on Han Nation is lacking. "China has stolen some IP." "Stain wasn't a compassionate ruler."

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    1. R. James

      100% correct. Han supremacism is an integral part of Xi's China.

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      Vickithesmith

      I actually appreciate his discretion. The answer is, of course, very obvious. I feel I can say this, as a half-Chinese person: many Chinese people are, from the Western perspective, very racist. Especially in the older generations.

      There's no way of saying that, though, without a very heavy emphasis on "from the Western perspective." There is also no way of saying that without putting the full Western value judgement that is attached to that word on the Chinese. The Chinese are not Western. They do not accept that Western values are universal. Those who hold those views would say that they do not believe in multiculturalism; they do not want a multicultural nation. They resent, very much, that Western media paints them as evil to the extent that they do not accept Western values.

      I have to say that I agree to them at least on this -- that the West's advertised values are in many respects self-contradictory, and often fundamentally hypocritical. Modern secular post-modern thought likes to cast itself as inclusive and open-minded. We deny absolute moral truths as a thing of the repressive religions of yesteryear. We claim to embrace difference, and cultural diversity, and freedom. We are proud to show everyone how much we celebrate other cultures, with their local food and quaint festivals and quaint religions.

      As long as they don't cross *our* lines.

      We're not so tolerant if their local food includes dogs or endangered species. Quaint festivals that celebrate Chairman Mao will earn scorn, and quaint religions that have the wrong attitude towards women or LGBT or racial minorities will bring down international censure with real consequences.

      Now me, I am mostly ok with that. I think that Mao was a monster; I think that the treatment of the Uigers in China is evil; I'm fine with eating dog. I think my older relatives are wrong to be as racist as they are, and that China would be in a better position if they embraced multi-culturalism at least a little more. I think that China is sovereign and the CCP should be able to do as it likes within whatever passes as international law, but it cannot demand that other nations never say mean things about them.

      But then, I am an old-fashioned religious type. I believe in absolute morality, even if I recognize that it's seldom easy for us to recognize, much less agree, on what is truly right. I think that on some subjects Western morality is better, and I don't have a problem saying so. I think on other subjects Eastern morality is better. I don't pretend that I think that every culture is equally good in every way. I don't claim, like progressive leftists do, to be so deeply anti-racist that I show deep scorn for whole races because I think they're very racist.

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      1. R. James

        Western values on human rights came from the western religious tradition not inspite of it. Yes, the post modernists have distorted what constitutes a natural right but the concept of natural rights is very deeply rooted in the western tradition. Yes, westerners have acted hypocritically but that fault lies with the people not the ideal of natural rights.

        And we can all look back on the global experience of the second world war to see the cost of countries systemically abusing human rights. And from that harsh lesson the world has learned that genocide is not an internal national matter, it is a crime against humanity that calls for a global response.

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    3. Moscow Reader

      I agree. I was waiting for him to cover immigration and China but it didn’t happen. Would be an interesting follow up article. I know that the Zero Covid pandemic policies stopped all immigration but what was immigration like in 2019 and earlier?

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      1. R. James

        Not much. China has always been a pretty closed society.

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