A Bleak Outlook on Immigration Reform

Divisions in Congress make major breakthroughs on the issue unlikely in 2023.

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Immigrant families arrive back into Mexico after being expelled from the United States. (Photo by John Moore/Getty Images)

U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported more than 2.3 million encounters with migrants attempting to come into the U.S. during the 2022 fiscal year. That’s up 1.7 million from the previous year and around 450,000 from 2020.

The jump in numbers can be partially attributed to repeat crossings: According to CPB, recidivism rates—individuals that Border Patrol apprehended more than once—stood at 7 percent in fiscal year 2019, and jumped above 25 percent for fiscal year 2020 and 2021.

While no one denies that America’s immigration system needs a major overhaul, few expect that the crisis on America’s southern border will soon break the decadeslong logjam on immigration policy.

“My sense is you’ll have messaging bills that won’t go anywhere,” GOP Rep. Michael McCaul, who chaired the House Committee on Homeland Security for three terms, said last week. “And then you’ll have smaller bipartisan bills that may have a chance at advancing some type of border security. It’s gonna be hard to pass immigration reform without getting this thing under control.”

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  1. Brook

    Really good, informative report. The good news is that a bipartisan group of senators are attempting to address these vexing issues in a meaningful way. The bad news is that their efforts likely will get nowhere.

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    Saied

    Excellent report; one question that you may want to consider for future reporting. What are our goals? Do different groups have different goals? Are there any shared goals? In what way do these goals benefit the country? It’s hard to formulate policy without agreeing on goals and expected benefits.

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    Rlritt

    We talk about the southern border, but millions of Asians and Africans come here in planes and overstay their visas. I worked in one prominent restaurant in Chicago and all of the unskilled workers were from the middle east. I don't know what the numbers are, but there are at least as many illegal immigrants from parts of the world other than Mexico. Face it, as much as we complain about the government, most of the other countries apart from Europe and Australia and New Zealand are bad places to live if you are poor or the wrong race or religion.

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    Ben Connelly

    Good reporting, Harvest! Very helpful breakdown of this issue.

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      Harvest Prude vertical-nib Author

      Thank you!

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    JohnM.

    Excellent. Just excellent. Thank you for writing this, Harvest.

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      Harvest Prude vertical-nib Author

      Appreciate it!

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    Barry Alexander

    Between "Abolish ICE" and "Build the Wall" there's not a lot of room for compromise. A good place to start might be to enforce the laws already on the books, especially employment verification. If the laws passed in 1986 had been enforced, there might be a few less Americans who don't trust the politicians to do anything about immigration.

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      Rlritt

      Sounds great but too many small small businesses in cities from coast to coast depend in workers paid under the table. There would be a huge number of business failings if they had to pay unskilled workers minimum wage, which has gone way up, not to mention money fom unemployment, taxes, and insurance.

      I think you right about not hiring illegal immigrants, but I'm afraid that train has left the station.

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    EricRemcon@gmail

    Nice summary, Harvest.

    I don’t see the southern boarder problem getting much better any time soon. My reasoning is driven by one simple fact – the lack of honesty on both sides. (Note: The numbers I will reference are just estimates pulled out of my head with no research, so take my rambling for what it is based on, ‘nothing’ 😁.)

    The major D lie: Asylum.

    I would bet that more than 75% of those showing up at the border (either entering legally at a check point or finding a hole to sneak through) are doing so for economic/quality of life reasons. The D focus on asylum is a backdoor diversion. If current asylum requirements were enforced, 80-90% of those arriving would be deported. All adding more courts would do is make sure the process is followed (a 10-fold increase would be required to process them real time without building massive limbo-encampment facilities. This will never happen, which is why Ds disingenuously suggest it). The reason migrants are showing up in record numbers is because it has been demonstrated to them that the law-required process will not be followed and a large portion of them will be released into the states with minimal tracking. This ‘hope’ is what they have in mind when they set out on the 500+ mile dangerous journey often with the aid of expensive black-market smugglers. It is a sad fact that a large portion of the world is economically unstable, plagued by violence, and ruled by despots but if America is going to be the relocation destination for the world, we will need to start populating the Arizona desert and Alaska. Giving them the hope of asylum is not compassionate, it is cruel. If the Ds want to redefine the meaning of asylum, then they should be honest and do that.

    The major R lie: Crime.

    Of course, there is drug smuggling and bad hombres are still getting through, but not to the tune of hundreds of thousands. I would bet the amount of fentanyl (the hottest boogieman drug of the moment, admittedly very dangerous due to the level of concentration) being successfully smuggled from China dwarfs whatever is sifting through the southern border. I’m also sure a small number of would-be terrorists are getting through, but it will take more than political hot air and a see-through (saw able) wall to stop them. They are using crime as a fear factor to gin up their base and avoid solving the problem. If they wanted to use the law to stop migrants, they would firm up illegal worker enforcement at employer workplaces and increase the guest worker program to fill low paying, labor intense jobs that are beneath Americans (either we don’t want to do the work, or we don’t want to pay the higher price that would result from home grown labor).

    I do not have ill will toward the migrants, its the dishonest politicians that bother me. If I was a low skilled worker stuck in a backward country, my dream would be to cross the border and get a California driver’s license, put a down payment on a car and become and Uber driver. You hear many complaints about how Uber drivers are underpaid, but I would bet that it would be viewed as winning the lottery by many, many foreigners. Americans never truly appreciate how good we have it.

    No, I doubt much will happen and the media (and uninformed voters) will continue to let it happen because video of hordes of ‘invaders’ on FOX and footage of inhuman refugee camps on MSNBC keeps the bills paid. ☹

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    1. Mary Stine

      I hope you are sitting down: this Democrat agrees with you. The place to work out asylum is in the country one is leaving, or at least in another country BEFORE trying to enter the US. Prior to the Trump and Biden administrations the US had programs in nearly all central and South American countries to do precisely that, as well as programs to help residents in areas besieged by climate and political events.
      The people arguing against those are either ill-informed or hypocrites.
      My husband and I have argued for stiffer fines on the employers of illegal immigrants for decades. I suspect that these violators always pass large sums under the table to congresspeople and local authorities, because none of them are ever even fined unless illegal sex is involved and a slave escapes to the press.
      One option that could have bipartisan support if the flamethrowers on either side were silenced is to improve the green card program. Most people I've known from Mexico do not actually want to stay forever in the US. They would simply like to be able to work hard here, legally, and be free to travel back and forth between here and Mexico. If they are breaking no laws, paying taxes here and not a drain on the welfare system, why not?
      As a former business owner I can say that immigrants improve the labor market...most are more motivated, less whiny and take more pride in their work than many native born Americans.
      We should all work together for a better, legal solution to immigration. Step one would be to stop demonizing or glorifying immigrants and start looking for reality.

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        EricRemcon@gmail

        Thanks for the reply and for bringing up the way asylum was handled previously (in neighboring countries before the US border). The unseriousness of our politics is very frustrating, especially when it comes to the southern border. While it is appalling to watch the games being played with the debt ceiling as we over spend year after year, the border situation is a disgusting embarrassment for our nation.

        The border issue involves REAL people, not the (near) Monopoly money that flies out of the federal printing presses. It is immoral for both sides to use the plight of migrants that are making the dangerous journey for a better life as political pawns. R or D, no matter what you think the level of immigration should be, we should write rules and follow them. Instead, the disingenuous squabbling creates chaos.

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    2. Hartzlk

      Add a few links to sources rather than saying "I would bet" or "I'm sure" and this comment becomes a bonus second article. :-)

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        EricRemcon@gmail

        Alas, I am too lazy to do real research (thus the disclaimer). If you have seen any of my other comments over the last 3 years, they are usually 5-minute rants either enthusiastically agreeing with an article or whining about something that bugs me (this one was probably a 10-minute version).

        As an engineer I already spend too much time researching new technologies and defining customer requirements to spend my leisure time researching political topics (beyond a 2-minute Google search). I appreciate the comment section here because it is usually a respectful place to vent and learn from other members perspectives (especially from a political angle because I am a novice follower of politics). Also, my comma and () aside ridden posts could hardly be characterized as an article.

        Thanks, for the encouragement. 😁

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    3. Bobby D

      This makes a good point. I’ve often wondered why there is so little enforcement on the employment end. If there are few jobs, then there is no incentive to cross the border. As it stands, it’s fairly easy to find decent-paying work in the US without needing to prove your right to work. That would likely eliminate 90% of the illegal crossings, which would make patrolling the border easier. Of course, there are entire industries in the US that couldn’t function without illegal labor.

      I agree on asylum. Most of these asylum claims are meritless on their face. There needs to be an expedited process for processing patently bogus claims.

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        Rlritt

        Businesses count on illegal workers to horrible jobs for little pay. I saw a TV news program a few years ago that showed a slaughter house out west somewhere like Wyoming or S. Dakota. It was horrifying. And every worker was Latin American. I'm sure they were paid very badly.

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        1. Bobby D

          Then we need to find a way to make those jobs legitimate. I’m willing to pay an extra 50 cents a pound for bacon to make it happen.

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            Rlritt

            Me too, but can you imagine the screaming about inflation that would start?

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