Can Democrats Pick Up a Senate Seat in the ‘Bluest Red State in the Country’?

An early look at the 2022 Senate race in North Carolina.

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Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat or a presidential race in North Carolina since 2008, when Kay Hagan and Barack Obama won their respective races. Yet of all the states Donald Trump won last November, he won North Carolina by the smallest margin. With incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr retiring at the end of this term, North Carolina—which Western Carolina University political science professor Christopher Cooper calls “the bluest red state in the country”—represents one of the Democrats’ best pickup opportunities in the upper chamber.

But they will have to overcome a formidable challenge, as the Republican primary features an experienced field including one current and one former congressman, and a former governor. As is the case in other states, Donald Trump looms large over the Republican field. There was speculation that his daughter-in-law Lara Trump might enter the race, but she has “declined for now,” and Trump endorsed Rep. Ted Budd at the state GOP convention on June 5.  It’s a major shakeup to the three-way contest between Budd, former Rep. Mark Walker, and former Gov. Pat McCrory.

On the Democratic side, the political dynamics of the primary are being shaped by undercurrents of identity as state Sen. Jeff Jackson, an Army veteran, faces off against two African-American women: Cheri Beasley, the first black woman to serve as chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, and former state Sen. Erica Smith, who lost in the 2020 Democratic Senate primary to Cal Cunningham.

Burr has been a fairly reliable Republican vote in the Senate since 2005, though he has fallen out of favor with the party over the last few years. In 2020, he was involved in an insider trading scandal, and this year he was censured by the North Carolina GOP after he was one of the seven Senate Republicans to vote to convict in Donald Trump’s second impeachment trial.

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  1. Kevin Brady

    I'm fascinated by states like NC where the Governor and Lt. Gov. are from opposing parties. Given the partisan toxicity at the national level between R and D, are these gents ever in the same room together?! I imagine working together is a bit awkward, unless normal daily duties don't really call for collaboration.

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  2. Tousseaux

    I suspect this is why Ted Budd was so indulgent of “election fraud” claims and the events of January 6.

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  3. M2-D2

    Hey fellow NC Dispatchers, I'm new to the state (California ex pat) and not familiar with politics in the state. Budd and Walker sound pretty samey to me (and neither in a good light) - McCrory I guess is the last option on the republican side, but honestly sounds like he wouldn't necessarily vote any differently in the Senate unless I'm missing something. His response to missing Trump's endorsement sounded kinda wounded - I realize it's hard to win these days going up against Trump's endorsement, and polling cited in this excellent piece appears to make that point. Any crystal ball insight into whether McCrory would actually a more centrist (non Trumpist) republican?

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    1. KR

      McCrory would probably be pretty similar to Thom Tillis. He'd be a party line dude for good or ill, and he would probably avoid news cycles by being a generic R-senator. As they were governor/speaker together, they both share the dumb saga of the Charlotte bathroom bill. Tbh, this crowd of republicans is kind of uninspiring.

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      wj

      I think he would tow the party line, whatever it was. He's said he'd support Trump if he ran again. Honestly, it's pretty black and white to me - any Republican that isn't willing to say what Liz Cheney and others has has said, is unfit for high office.

      I'm going with Jeff Jackson (D). He's been a great state senator, and I think he'll be a principled moderate in Washington. Of course, you never know with these things.

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        Nick H

        I doubt that Jackson would be all that moderate if elected. He's definitely not going to be like Manchin or Sinema and publicly buck the party line. He's way too online for that.

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    Johntadian

    If it wasn't for the endorsement from Madison Cawthorn (he's, um, an idiot), I would have no qualms about voting for Walker. But now, my main reason will be a repudiation of trump. Budd's primary failure could spell the beginning of the end for this disease.

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    Nick H

    An endorsement from Madison Cawthorn - was it written in crayon? On the other hand an endorsement from Tim Scott carries some weight, maybe even enough to cancel out the Cawthorn one. Still, I'll probably go re-register as a Republican so I can vote in the primary for McCrory.

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    Alec

    Looks like Budd wins the primary and then it’s a true test of the former guy’s power and influence. But….he’s not on the ballot and he’s the former president (and losing candidate). 2022 in a nutshell?

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  7. Bill Marsh

    From a lifetime member in NC: Well-done, accurate, and *zero* factual errors. (Rare that I can say that about any multi-headed political story anymore.) Caption on the photo needs adjusting, though. The photo comes from the GOP convention in Greenville about ten days ago, moments after Trump endorsed endorsed Budd and called him up to the stage. Budd had actually announced his candidacy a month or so earlier in a quirky video.

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  8. RedBeardRob

    Speaking as a Charlotte resident, it's hard to overstate how much the "bathroom bill" controversy changed McCrory's image among independent and leftist voters. Even if that bill was mostly driven by the state legislature, his support for it blew apart the moderate image he'd built up after serving as the mayor of a city in one of the state's bluer areas.

    Of the three candidates in the primary, he'd still be my pick for the job. In a general election, I'm curious to see if he would retreat from, embrace, or try to ignore what would be prime "culture warrior" credit for any candidate in the MAGA lane.

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      Eric "Otter" Stratton

      Yep, it sure did. I would argue this was the among the first of the "woke-capital" wars that have emerged.

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    Eric "Otter" Stratton

    I'm from NC and this is a really good write-up. I'm pretty impressed. Thoughts:

    Jackson is the typical "twitter isn't real life candidate." Everybody on social media talks about him but in real life he will underperform.

    Nobody knows who Ted Budd unless he is your Congressman. If he can't turn that Trump endorsement into name ID then he's toast.

    Walker has a similar problem but probably has more name ID due to getting in first.

    All that said, I'm 110% behind McCrory.

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      Rick Henderson

      This is extremely well done. Overlooked in the Budd endorsement is that Trump has grudges against McCrory and Walker. McCrory spoke out against the Access Hollywood tape and the Stop the Steal garbage. Walker emphasized outreach to minority voters and took a gentle swipe at Trump for his reaction to Charlottesville, etc. 45 never forgets.

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      Nick H

      Agree with all of this. That's a perfect description of Jackson.

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