Erdoğan’s Impending Victory and Turkey’s Future Course

The country is likely to stay on its increasingly authoritarian trajectory and remain an unreliable NATO ally.

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks at a rally in Istanbul, Turkey on May 26, 2023. (Photo by TUR Presidency / Murat Cetinmuhurdar / Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Turkish President Recep Tayipp Erdoğan is likely to be reelected to another term on Sunday despite widespread speculation that he might lose. He has already ruled the Turkish Republic for almost a decade longer than its founder, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, and his victory at the polls will undoubtedly keep Turkey on its increasingly nationalist and authoritarian trajectory. As a result, it is worth reflecting on why he appears to have defied the odds and what his likely victory means for Turkey’s future course at home and abroad.

Why did people think Erdoğan was vulnerable in the election?

Erdoğan appeared vulnerable because he had thoroughly mismanaged the economy (45 percent inflation, down from 80 percent in the fall), COVID response, and earthquake relief. Moreover, he was personally associated with Turkey’s Syria policy, which had brought more than 4 million Syrian refugees into Turkey. Those refugees have become a target of popular anger as economic conditions in Turkey have worsened. Not to mention that corruption in the ranks of his Justice and Development Party (AKP)—including up to and including the president’s family—as well as his increasing authoritarianism suggested that he was more vulnerable than at any time in his 20-plus years ruling Turkey. Polling for the first round of the election on May 14 suggested that he was running behind all of the prospective candidates; even Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu—generally considered the weakest potential opponent—had been outstripping him in trial heats. After the earthquake in February, some polls showed Erdoğan behind by as much as 10 to 12 percent. No one has ever made money betting against Erdoğan in Turkish politics, but his vulnerabilities were undeniable.

How did he best Kılıçdaroğlu in the May 14 balloting?

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  1. GenZConservative

    I know these articles don't get quite the same traction as some of the newsletters, but I find them highly useful and engaging. Thanks!

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    Earl King

    It would seem Erdoğan is just another tin pot dictator who is focused on consolidation of power and enrichment. We see these people come and go. Turkey however along with Hungary is a metaphor for America. Divided America. We were born of self sacrifice. I don’t not see anything like our founding fathers in todays politicians. Slave owners or not it would our politics well if they would at those who served and fought for our freedoms.

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    JohnD

    In the long term, Turkey is, IMO, an interesting and potentially troublesome player in the Eurasian theatre. Will Russian decline correspond to a Turkish assent, and if so is this a ‘NATO’ Turkey ascending or a “play both sides of the equation” more troublesome entity? My bet is on the later, and a clear US strategy for dealing with a riding Turkey is critical.

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  4. Bigdonmck

    It's unfortunate that Turkey exists at such a vital geographic spot on this planet of ours. But it does. Otherwise, Erdogan wouldn't matter as much. But he does.
    I recall a stateside visit Erdogan made to the USA a few years back. Protesters vs him were doing their protesting thing outside where he was residing. His security henchman went out and beat the crap out of them. Local police did not intervene to protect the protesters. Diplomatic immunity??? Not a nice guy.

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    DougCLE

    We forget, here in the West, that other nations do not view autocratic strongmen as inherently bad. Atatürk was himself a strongman, by our definition, for all he was a reformer. Yet he is revered in Turkey as Americans revere George Washington, and rightly so. Like Atatürk, Erdoğan is judged by his outcomes, rather than the nature of his rule, and so far these have more-or-less worked out.

    I don’t like him as an ally, and I think he’s brought Turkey closer to the “more trouble than it’s worth” line - though not over it - for NATO membership, but I won’t be surprised to see him pull off another victory, and I’m not having a “what’s the matter with Kansas” moment over it, either.

    OTOH, he can’t keep on the current path - economic shenanigans and playing off the West against Russia - forever. Economically, you can only rob Peter to pay Paul for so long (you listening, America?) and Russia is no longer in a position to play the indulgent sugar daddy; I could see Putin telling Erdoğan it’s time to put out or get out. China is not the perfect alternative, either, because Turkey, unlike most Islamic nations, actually seems to care about the plight of the Muslim Uyghurs, and despite continuing strong economic ties, has expressed skepticism of China’s motives.

    The next decade will be interesting for Turkey, I think.

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      Dennis

      I saw the China light flashing as read of Turkey’s economic woes, so thanks for the reminder of how seriously the AKP takes its Islamism. Still, Erdogan, it seems to me would have a lot of leverage with China because of Turkey’s place on the map, and I wonder if he couldn’t find a way to finesse the Uyghur problem in return for some generous financial assistance.

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  6. Esther G

    It is important to read about the politics of other countries. I think it gives a lens to see our own politics through. I appreciate that The Dispatch covers world politics since all our fates to some degree are tied to each other around the world. Thank you for this very interesting and important article.

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    Ben Connelly

    Bad news

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  8. Donnybrook

    I wonder if we will ever know the extent of how the election was tilted in Erdogan's favor, such as you noted in the disparate media coverage. I also read that the army/police were blocking some roads in areas favoring his opponent, hindering voters from getting to the pols on the election day(s). It is also interesting that his opponent was leading in the pre-election polling, although I realize polls aren't necessarily true.

    Considering a large swath of the American public, and the majority of the GOP are also favoring more autocratic rule, I guess we shouldn't be too surprised. I worry that should Trump win a second term, the US will become an unreliable NATO partner.

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    Rajeev

    He definitely politicized the earthquake from the beginning effectively to his advantage.

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    Victor Clairmont

    The problem is a lot of us are viewing Erdogan from the wrong standing point.

    I remember talking to a fellow worker from Turkey about a year and a half ago.

    I asked him, “So what’s going on in Turkey with Erdogan?”

    And he proceeded to tell me that most people do not care about how Western’s view him. And the reasoning is simple:

    He proceeded to take Turkey from a more backwards economy to a more forward one. From a non force to reckon with to a nation that now NATO and other nations have to regard more seriously.

    In other words, it’s the same thing as the rise of China to a degree. China went from submissive to the West over 20 years ago to now challenging it. For all the flaws we point out of Uighur genocide, freedom or free trade, democracy, etc., non of that really matters to a population that went from almost nothing to quite something, or see the possibility of prosperity even under harsh rule.

    Even dictatorships tend to stay in power when people’s lives are getting better, not worse. Who cares (sadly) if a segment of society is the underdog/abused/ignored as long as it advances?

    Even if a free democracy/free trade society would do far better economically than one with a right fist of authoritarianism, many people don’t really care if they went from 0 to 40k a year under a dictatorship as opposed to maybe 50 or 60k financially under capitalism (just an example).

    To us in the West, we take for granted the freedoms we have.

    We tend to forget civilization for thousands of years survived without our morals, and will continue to do so. The End of Democracy (Francis Fukuyama) it not yet.

    The old world still breathes strongly.

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