EU Membership Is Not the Best Way for Europe to Help Ukraine

Aside from funding problems, it risks creating an exodus from the country at the precise time it will need to rebuild after war.

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Ukraine has recently applied to join the European Union. While EU officials have been supportive of the beleaguered nation and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen went so far as to say, “We want them in the European Union,” there are obstacles to Ukraine’s accession that could well prove insurmountable. And there are considerable downsides for Ukraine itself. 

The first reason is the Cohesion Policy. Under this policy, the EU redistributes wealth through a variety of funds (the Cohesion Fund, Regional Development Fund, European Social Fund, etc.) These funds, which make up close to 40 percent of the EU’s budget for 2021-27, are meant to subsidize and help bring the poorer member states up to speed. Although wealthy member states can and do receive money from some of these funds, poorer members are vastly overrepresented among the recipients.

If Ukraine were to be admitted to the EU, it would become the poorest country in the union. In fact, Ukraine is already the poorest country in Europe. Ukraine’s per capita GDP is $4,384. Bulgaria, the current poorest member of the EU, has a per capita GDP of $11,332 – two and a half times that of Ukraine. These are pre-war figures and, unfortunately, Ukraine is likely to be even further behind the rest of Europe economically by the end of this war. 

Not only is Ukraine poor, it is also really big. In fact, if admitted it would be the fifth most populous state in the EU. Under the Cohesion Policy, Ukraine would receive more funds than any other country in the union. And it wouldn’t even be close. 

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  1. Matt C

    I've had the same thoughts about the major dangers of emigration for Ukraine (which may sadly be forced on them if this refugee crisis becomes more permanent).

    The EU shouldn't be the answer anytime soon, and the EU knows it. It is smart for Ukraine to maybe make a big deal about it though, since it only increases sympathy for Ukraine when/if it doesn't happen. The West will give substantial aid, and hopefully let them join other European entities. And maybe most importantly one day, some sort of arrangement with, if not outright membership in, NATO. That last one may take a long time though.

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    Matt J

    On the contrary, your points seem to make a good case for giving Ukraine membership. They'll need a lot of money to rebuild after this invasion, and they seem to be making good use of the aid we've given them so far. While it certainly would be bad for the country to have an EU-induced brain drain after the war, it seems that would result in a much smoother integration with the rest of Europe.
    Not to mention, we need to make sure neither Putin nor anyone else tries this again. The closer Ukraine is to the rest of Europe, the better.

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      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      I appreciate your perspective, but frankly, the way to make sure Putin never tries this again is to let Ukraine join NATO.

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    Antebellum Whig

    good, informative piece.

    I like the EU in principle - a free trade zone plus loose confederation if some kind seems like it would be Pareto optimal for Europe, but as the author points out, that's not what the EU is or how it actually works. it's much more ... robust than that, and therein, it seems to me, lies the problem: the inexorable trend toward centralized authority and the imposition of policy preferences from further afield.

    oh well, it's their problem

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      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      Yeah. If we had all stayed at "free trade, common trade deals" that would have been sufficient. The political union is the problem and the source of all intra-European tension really.

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    Jason Gibson

    well argued........I'm not a big fan of the EU though they are performing admirably right now. ("this is their finest hour"?)

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      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      I'm not a fan of the EU either as you'll probably remember from my past articles. I honestly think the EU is a bit overrated in this crisis - they acted, yes, but very late. Still, I'm glad they are sanctioning Russia. I just hope they have the patience to keep sanctioning Russia for years and years unless they pull out of Ukraine and Putin resigns.

      The danger is that, as the costs of the sanctions start to bite (yes, they'll hurt Russia more, but never the less), patience may wear thin and sanctions be reduced, as happened after Crimea (I'll have to double check but I'm pretty sure the EU lessened some sanctions after a few years, fearing the Russian economy would collapse otherwise).

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  5. Natty Bumpo

    Well reasoned arguments. The West and Ukraine 🇺🇦 see mutuality in political, social and economic ideals and goals but that is probably insufficient for marriage. Ukraine should be a member of the economic community to foster those goals but full integration would not help Ukraine's nation-building effort at this stage.

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    EricRemcon@gmail

    You are right to point out that Ukraine acceptance to the EU is not all wine and roses. Hopefully after the euphoria of solidarity support fades, cooler heads will prevail. Joining the EU may be (I’m not sure I would join) a long-term goal for Ukraine, but as you point out they need to be a much stronger and more stable country before that happens. The war will only prolong that process.

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