Guessing Games at the Brink of War

The week appeared to open with the West on the brink of geopolitical disaster

Three months into Russia’s buildup of troops and arms near Ukraine’s border, the Biden administration informed the world that President Vladimir Putin had successfully concentrated sufficient force to launch a further invasion at “any time,” including before the conclusion of the Olympic games in Beijing. Such an attack could topple President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government in Kyiv within 48 hours and leave 25,000 to 50,000 civilians dead. Accordingly, the U.S. State Department moved its embassy from Ukraine’s capital to Lviv, a Western city near the Polish border, and urged citizens to flee while the option remained. 

“American citizens should leave now,” President Joe Biden told NBC’s Lester Holt in a rare sit-down interview. “It’s not like we’re dealing with a terrorist organization. We’re dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. It’s a very different situation, and things could go crazy quickly.” The president reportedly told Zelensky and other world leaders to expect an attack by Tuesday or Wednesday. 

But then, at the height of the West’s alarm, the Kremlin appeared to stand down. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday reportedly told Putin that the West demonstrated “a willingness to enter into serious negotiations” and was “no longer able to just ignore” Moscow’s security concerns. On Tuesday, Putin claimed to have begun a “partial” withdrawal of the Russian troops stationed near Ukraine’s border. 

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Comments (34)
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  • Charlotte Lawson, thank you. I to, believe your coverage is excellent.

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  • The local press in Russia…don’t laugh as ours might be worse…is on the the Biden wag the dog scam. They’ve been bleating about an invasion any day for a month and guys like Jake Sullivan smarmy toad that he is or Tony Blinken empty cipher make me cheer for the bad guys.

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  • The big fear is "if not Putin, then will the next guy be worse"?
    Putin sent troops in w/o uniforms in 2014. Had we sent troops and captured them, Putin would have lost face badly, perhaps enough for him to be toppled . That Obama did some sanctions and gave him his "stern look" meant nothing.

    Putin has to "win", so give him a win that doesn't allow any invasion. Let him trumpet back home that he won...who cares? But not if he invades.

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    1. Always leave your enemy an “out” that serves your purposes.

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  • I'm still not certain that an invasion is on. But it is still interesting that almost exactly 8 years ago, Maidan came to its inevitable end: a free Ukraine.

    Moreover, Putin was at the Olympics in Sochi, instead of ordering Russia's security to intervene.

    So, might this be a case of revenge for his 8 years of humiliation?

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  • I keep going back to the video of the Russian train crossing the Crimean Bridge. The image seems too perfect. IMO, it looks like an HO model train crossing a model bridge. https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-60400649

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    1. As a Romulan once said on Star Trek's Deep Space 9 episode:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6yQOs93Cgg

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    2. I’ll admit, that does look like CGI. And not even good CGI. Could be bad filming, though.

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      1. Looks like a mishmash of old footage, model trains AND CGI. The lighting is "off" in unnatural ways, the color is oversaturated in some frames and undersaturated in others, supposedly in the same time frame.

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    3. I thought exactly the same thing. Another example of them trolling us?

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  • Great article, highly informative and well written. Reporter Charlotte Lawson describes in easy to follow detail the audacious moves Putin is seemingly willing to make. Europe, the West, had better wake up, and find a way to put a stop to this now. The consequences of failure might be catastrophic. Thank you Dispatch for the excellent reporting!

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  • Another week we’ve made it through. Hopefully we get through the weekend and get another article next week only about the threats by the Kremlin and Putin.

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  • Civilians being told to evacuate DPR/LPR, and air-raid sirens in Donetsk…

    This seems to be a decent Twitter feed on the latest:
    https://twitter.com/MarQs__

    (Similar screen name, but I don’t know the person.)

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  • Great article! When I became a member of The Dispatch, I dropped my subscriptions to more traditional news services. I came to The Dispatch more for the opinion pieces, but the news and news analysis like this piece are a terrific part of Dispatch membership. Keep up the good work Charlotte!

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    1. Agreed. #WeAin'tHereForClickbait!

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