Has Sunak Sealed Brexit?

The ‘Windsor framework’ promises a resolution in Northern Ireland, but key stakeholders are holding out.

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British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak leaves Downing Street on March 8, 2023, in London. (Photo by Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images)

In a diplomatic coup for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the British government has struck a new deal with the European Union on the future of Northern Ireland.

The so-called “Windsor framework,” Sunak told reporters last week, represents a “decisive breakthrough” in post-Brexit relations and “a turning point for the people of Northern Ireland.” 

But why did the Windsor Framework, or the Northern Ireland Protocol before that, have to be negotiated in the first place? 

By the summer of 2019, three years since the U.K. had voted to leave the European Union, politicians at Westminster had failed to decide on a Brexit plan and the public was exhausted. 

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  1. R. James

    The DUP is no longer Northern Ireland's largest party. Sinn Fein won more seats and a higher vote total in the last NI Assembly election. You should consider a clarification or correction on this mistake.

    Ultimately, the pressure is now on the DUP to decide whether to re-join the NI Executive and admit defeat on the Protocol question or further isolate themselves by rejecting the Tories new Windsor framework when even the hardline Brexiteers in the ERG have accepted it. Given the looming anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, the thought of the DUP keeping the NI executive from forming based on nebulous objections to the new framework, that even the ERG supports, will isolate them further from public opinion and may be politically untenable even within the Unionist community of NI.

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  2. Trichwages

    thanks, Oliver.

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  3. DTruitt

    The eventual rejoining of North Ireland with the Irish Republic is inevitable, but not likely any time soon. Catholics overtook Protestants as the majority in Ulster over a decade ago and the trends are in their favor. Additionally Ireland has been shedding legal and social policies demanded by the Catholic Church, while the overall trend throughout western nations is ever more secular rather than theocratic.

    Maybe in another one or two generations the reunion of the Irish will be accomplished, and finally bring to an end the EU/UK divide within the island of Ireland.

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      Show Jay Janney the 🚪!

      I hope you're right.
      But it will require England to let go of Northern Ireland from the UK. And that may require letting Scotland go. But they'll always have the Isle of Man!

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      1. DTruitt

        It's not the English, or the Scots or Welsh who demand that Ulster remain part of the UK - it's the Unionists who are Protestants in Ulster who demand it. The days of empire are long gone, indeed there seems to be growing support for letting the Scots go independent within England ... as a sort of dismissal of Scots policy preferences which are clearly to the left of the English. But it is the now-minority Protestants in Ulster who fear being overwhelmed by the Catholic majority in the Republic of Ireland. However, as Ireland becomes more and more secular, that fear is likely to subside with succeeding generations.

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        Party-san

        I think both Northern Ireland and Scotland will secede, but for different reasons.

        The Good Friday Agreement allows for a majority vote by both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland to bring Northern Ireland into the Republic. This was one of the conditions provided when creating the 19th Amendment of the Irish constitution, which for the first time saw Ireland recognise UK sovereignty over Northern Ireland. Importantly, it does NOT require sanction from Westminster.

        I think it will be a lot sooner than two generations before this happens. Friends of mine in Belfast say people are deeply unhappy to see the tilt back towards sectarianism, largely driven by the DUP, which is losing it support. Combine this with the economic benefit that young people see of being in the EU, which will drive their turnout in a referendum, and I think you'll see a majority very soon. All it will then take is a call for a vote.

        Scotland is in a different position: while they have the right to vote for secession they require Westminster's approval to hold that vote. Westminster will not permit it at present, but I predict that permission will be granted as part of a political trade in the next 10 years. Here's how I see it going...

        Labour will win the next election, inheriting the weakest-growing economy of the OECD and with Britain largely excluded from EU funding streams. The better-for-Britain trade deals which were promised with international partners and the EU itself have failed to materialise, and will continue to fail to do so, and the British economy will not be looking good. People largely vote the economy, so I predict that five years later Labour will be looking unlikely to win their second general election.

        At this point, the SNP will come to labour and promise their support in the general election in exchange for being granted the right to vote to leave the UK. Labour will agree, because short term gain always wins in politics, and the subsequent secession vote in Scotland will be a landslide: most of Scotland despise the hard-right turn of the Tories and I think would prefer self-rule in spite of the economic risks.

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        1. R. James

          While the UK government does not have to "sanction" a decision for NI voting to unify with the Republic. The NI Secretary, a UK MP appointed by the governing party in Westminster, still needs to call the vote in NI. Something that is very unlikely to happen while the Tories are in government. But I agree with you that the politics in NI are changing much quicker than most are willing to admit, and Irish Unification is inevitable. A united Ireland is likely in the next ten to twenty years. Scottish independence, while not inevitable, is still possible under a Labour government, if the SNP can get through its current internal turmoil. Ironically how the English parties are viewed in Scotland will create its own counterintuitive hurdle. A Labour government makes calling a Scottish Referendum more likely, but Independence less likely; while a Tory government makes calling a vote less likely but the likelihood of a referendum result in favor of Independence more likely. Scottish Independence would only expedite Irish Unification.

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          Dennis

          Agree that the trade deals that were projected to justify Brexit haven’t happened. What I’m not sure of is who is to blame. Did the U.S.T.R. drag out negotiations because of hostility to Brexit? What about other countries? Bi-lateral trade deals are apparently harder than they look.

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            Party-san

            I don't think anyone serious believed that fabulously beneficial trade deals would quickly be struck. They are notoriously hard to negotiate, take a long time, and the UK has put itself in the position of negotiating from weakness. Not that this stopped the Brexiteers from saying it would be a slam dunk.

            I don't actually think that the US and other countries (other than Europe) are dragging their feet because of hostility to Brexit - I'd guess they're very pleased to be looking at more favourable deals. But they're also not in a hurry; in many respects delay strengthens their hands as Britain becomes increasingly desperate.

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        Scarlette Tarte

        26+6 = 1.

        Good Irish math.

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