How Boris Johnson Lost the Plot

The pandemic and Brexit-related headaches are lingering, and his rival Nigel Farage might be poised for a comeback.

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Earlier this year, I wrote an article on how Boris Johnson had outplayed populist Nigel Farage. Farage’s star was dimming, whereas Johnson commanded a double-digit lead in the polls, after first having successfully negotiated a trade deal with the EU and shortly thereafter led a record-breaking vaccine rollout that was the envy of the rest of the world. 

Now, the Labour party has overtaken the Conservatives in polling averages, and Nigel Farage is teasing a return to party politics, having left his own party in January of this year. This party, the Reform party, formerly known as the Brexit Party, was Farage’s successor party to the famous UK Independence Party. How did this happen?

The vaccine boost that didn’t last. The U.K.’s vaccine rollout was the envy of the world. Armed with an arsenal of mostly AstraZeneca doses, the U.K. proceeded to leap-frog the rest of the world (save for Israel and a few gulf states) in getting needles into arms earlier this year. The EU feebly demanded the U.K. share some of its vaccine supply, which gave the British government an opportunity to rally the nation against the would-be needle robbers from Brussels. The U.K. was the first government in Europe to publish a roadmap for lifting the lockdown and fully returning to normal life: June 21 was announced as Freedom Day. Skeptics of vaccines and lockdowns (Farage being in the latter category) failed to catch on with the mainstream audience as the lockdown was to end soon anyway, and all the Brits had to do was get vaccinated.

Then, shortly before June 21, the remaining restrictions were extended. Freedom day was no more. The Delta variant had caused an alarming uptick in cases, and out of the three major vaccines used in the EU, AstraZeneca’s—the one most Brits had received—just so happened to be the worst at fighting this new variant. While the U.K. did lift restrictions four weeks later than planned—still far earlier than most other Western countries—quite a bit of the air had gone out of the government’s triumphant success. 

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    Very interesting. Great article.

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  2. Natty Bumpo

    Interesting piece. I haven't been following UK politics but am aware of the issues with Northen Ireland and the asylum seekers. Negotiating both these issues will be thorny as hard lines on the Irish trade boundary will cause heartache there and a customs line in the Irish Sea is a non sequeteur for national integrity. This and the migrant control are clearly EU sour grapes that serve no true EU interest long term. EU would be better served working out a more cooperative solution with the UK than acting the part of the abandoned partner.

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  3. Alex DeLarge

    "There is only so much a country can do to stop asylum seekers from arriving without violating international law."

    That's a myth. A country only needs to avoid passing (or to repeal, once passed) it's own laws that forfeit its sovereignty and discretion over its immigration decisions

    "It is the right of a state to grant asylum to an individual, but it is not the right of an individual to be granted asylum by a state. This perspective is reflected in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), which, though recognizing (article 14) the right “to seek and to enjoy in other countries asylum from persecution,” does not explicitly provide a right of asylum. . . . Similarly recognizing that “the grant of asylum may place unduly heavy burdens on certain countries,” the Convention relating to the Status of Refugees, which was adopted by the United Nations (UN) Conference of Plenipotentiaries on the Status of Refugees and Stateless Persons in 1951, did not create a right of asylum for those seeking it. . . . Subsequent unsuccessful efforts to articulate an individual’s right of asylum included: (1) the UN General Assembly Declaration on Territorial Asylum (1967), which contained substantive exceptions to its non-refoulement (non-return) provision (pertaining to national security and to the safeguarding of its national population), and (2) a proposed Convention on Territorial Asylum, which never materialized." https://www.britannica.com/topic/asylum

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  4. Petrean_04

    Um, this analysis is pretty surprising (and lacking) to me, since it misses the most obvious route to electoral success for Farage right now, at least for by-elections and local elections, which is opposition to Pandemic measures/lockdowns. This is particularly true since the pandemic response has been a matter similar to the EU in its ability to divide the Conservative party, as seen in the Tory rebellion against the latest proposed Coronavirus restrictions -- 79 backbenchers have announced their opposition (and counting), with the legislation only able to pass on the back of Labour support.

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    1. Avatar photo
      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      The problem is that the next scheduled general election is not until 2024. Yes, Johnson can call one earlier, but he won't - especially not if Farage is eating into his votes. No-one expects any lockdown legislation to remain by 2024.

      If Farage re-enters politics on an anti-lockdown platform, he will really struggle to remain relevant once its over.

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      1. Petrean_04

        I largely accept this, which is part of why I made a point of mentioning by-elections and local elections in the meantime. Of course, I could make relatively minor (but arguably significant) points, such as that 2024 is really only 2 years away next month, nobody ever expected the lockdowns to last 2 years but the goalposts keep moving, the Tories are showing weakness as a majority already which could hasten the timeline (though of course I don't expect a Tory majority of the current size to actually collapse), and Nigel Farage could arguably seize on anti-lockdowns as his ticket to relevance in the present, until he finds a better hook in future. A large portion of the British public has been open to his appeal to support him on the issue they see as most urgent, and to shelve other matters until after the urgent issue has been resolved.

        However, this fundamentally misses the point, and indeed the unique genius, of Nigel Farage. He is perhaps the most significant British politician since Margaret Thatcher (certainly on the Right), and very few if any have done as much to move the UK in their direction. And incredibly, he has done this without actually having any record of success with General Elections (though he's had a more obvious impact in European elections). It's not really a crazy universe to envision, where he continues to make his impact felt by pressuring the Conservatives on lockdown policy/Coronavirus more generally, even without having any real long-term path to electoral viability.

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  5. Avatar photo
    Mudskipper

    A burning question: Is bad hair a must-have for populist politicians? When will we see a politician with a mullet?

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    1. Alex DeLarge

      Joe Biden circa 1975 (pre hair plugs) had a comb-over and a compensatory proto-mullet in the back.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Mudskipper

        Ah! A man ahead of his time.

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      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      I mean, bad hair aside, Boris Johnson is rather different from Donald Trump. Johnson is a real politician who was a prominent writer prior to his career in politics. He's governed as a a centre-right mayor of London prior to being prime minister.

      His personality is not as "uptight" as the stereotypical politician, but he is a far more serious person with an actual ideology and political goals, unlike Donald Trump.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Mudskipper

        I don't disagree with that.

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      2. Alex DeLarge

        Being a leftist is what makes one "serious" to the Global Establishment set. The Tories are currently to the left of Tony Blair's old Labour party. So Boris's "seriousness" is thus confirmed.

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      3. Avatar photo
        Chris L

        Agreed. Even Johnson's biggest detractors bristle when people refer to him as "British Trump" for all valid reasons.

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    3. Avatar photo
      Chris L

      Thankfully Kid Rock's political career never took off.

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      Picov Andropov

      We need to bring the male ponytail back into the political arena.

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  6. Avatar photo
    David Chen

    This sounds significantly less insane than US politics. What aren't you telling us John?

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    1. Avatar photo
      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      Haha :P British politics is a bit more... sophisticated? I mean it's not without populism (and populism is not always a bad thing for that matter, though too much of it at the wrong time is dangerous). But it's a lot more stable and problem-oriented than American politics.

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  7. Egal.Fabrice

    French here, can confirm the general mood about the UK at the moment. "Boris Johnson has problems? Oh noes, we are totally sad. Anyway..."
    The only exception was when dozens of refugees drowned in the Channel, that caused a commotion.

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    1. Avatar photo
      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      And the truth is, they will continue to drown unless France abides by the Dublin agreement and chooses to process their applications (and take back anyone who does make it across the channel). The UK cannot grant amnesty, and the asylum seekers are not going back on their own.

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  8. CWB3

    How Boris Johnson lost his comb. . .

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      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      I'm not sure if he owns a comb

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  9. Avatar photo
    Jason Gibson

    Whenever a piece by John Gustavsson appears it's always well researched and I walk away feeling better informed. Especially about Europe.

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    1. Avatar photo
      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      I'm so happy to hear that. I'll try to write more often in the future.

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