Iran Is Already Testing the Incoming Biden Administration

By ramping up its uranium enrichment, the Islamic Republic is signalling a willingness to escalate hostilities.

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Iran announced plans this week to enrich uranium to 20 percent purity at its underground Fordow nuclear facility, pushing its program a meaningful step closer to weaponization and well beyond the enrichment limitations laid out by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran nuclear deal. 

The same day, Iranian forces seized a South Korean-flagged chemical tanker in the Strait of Hormuz amid a dispute over $7 billion in Iranian assets frozen in Seoul under U.S. sanctions, ostensibly to prevent the vessel from “creating environmental and chemical pollution in the Persian Gulf.” The Islamic Republic has been at the center of a slew of maritime incidents in the critically important waterway recently, including the detainment of a British tanker by its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for two months last year. 

The timing of the two latest escalations by Iran is no coincidence: Almost a year to the day after the U.S. killed Iranian Quds Force commander Gen. Qassem Suleimani in an airstrike in Iraq, Iran is flexing its nuclear ambitions and regional naval power to signal to the incoming Biden administration its willingness to ramp up hostilities in the event that it continues the Trump administration’s hardline approach. 

In the eyes of Iranian leadership, the decision to pursue a more aggressive uranium enrichment program was tit for tat following President Donald Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA. While the U.S. withdrew, Iran is still a party to the deal along with China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the EU. Pending American cooperation in reviving some iteration of the deal and thereby alleviating Iran of the crippling economic weight of sanctions, officials have promised the rollback of its increased enrichment.  “Our measures are fully reversible upon FULL compliance by ALL,” Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted Monday.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Narwhal

    The JCPOA was an imperfect solution to an imminent problem. And it gave us a strategic window to shift our focus from the Middle East to East Asia and confront China, with our military if necessary.

    What as the imminent problem?

    “The Arak nuclear facility was initially concerning to the United States and its allies because it had the capability to produce weapons-grade Plutonium. Despite Iran’s insistence that Arak was not intended to produce nuclear material for weapons, their failure to provide the IAEA with access to the plans for the facility called this into question. Arak, combined with the introduction of a spent fuel processing facility, would give Iran the propensity to create a Plutonium-based nuclear weapon. Plans for the Arak facility initially included a reprocessing site, but that was scrapped early on in the construction process [5]. Iran is also prohibited from creating such a facility under the Iranian nuclear deal.”

    https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/missile-threat-and-proliferation/todays-missile-threat/iran/arak-heavy-water-nuclear-reactor/

    The plant went online in 2014. It is/was a heavy water reactor. It could produce 9kg of plutonium annually before its core was rendered unusable under the JCPOA agreement. That would enough material for one or two thermonuclear devices if it was processed. A heavy water plant can also produce deuterium and tritium which are needed to manufacture thermonuclear devices. Heavy water plants are considered less efficient power sources than light water reactors and pose a much greater danger of nuclear proliferation.

    The JCPOA went into effect in January of 2016. There was a reason why Iran had a decent bargaining position in the negotiations. There is a reason why the P5+1 were interested in getting the deal in place quickly. There is a reason we were willing to accept an imperfect deal with Iran which only had a limited amount of time where it would be useful.

    Now we face a circumstance where Iran has no reason to trust us in any future negotiations. If I was them I wouldn’t trust our word. Either our government tricked them or we failed to honor our agreement with them.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Narwhal

      If you think Iran is just simply an evil regime and don’t account for US-Iranian history then it can be difficult to even begin to understand why the government of Iran and many Iranians might want a few nuclear weapons.

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      1. Avatar photo
        George.Rozes

        Iran supports and funds terror, wants to eliminate Israel, and beat down the Sunni states.

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        1. Avatar photo
          Narwhal

          The Saudis also support and fund terrorist groups. Specifically in Syria where they are in a proxy war with Iran.

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          1. Avatar photo
            George.Rozes

            So two wrongs make a right. No. The Saudis for all their problems and issues have not attacked American assets, or held Americans hostage, or threatened the "Zionist entity". False equivalence.

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  2. Avatar photo
    DougAz

    Biggest threat to America we saw on the Capital assault today. Even Ayatollah Komenei didn't get as big an Insurrection Mob for the US Embassy.

    Nah. Iran doesn't last for our American Lands. They do lust for more days like today.

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  3. JohnM

    The Iranians know the Biden administration is going to come in and ask for concessions in a new agreement. So they decided to move the goal posts and create a new normal from which to negotiate from. The Biden administration should create their own “ new normal” before sitting down with them.

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  4. Avatar photo
    Johntadian

    With all the Obama retreads set to fill the Biden administation, is there any doubt the “campaign of nuclear extortion” will end in the resumption of American capitulation and bribe paying? This is not going to end well.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Narwhal

      Why do you think the government and many of the people of Iran want a nuclear weapon?

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      1. Avatar photo
        George.Rozes

        This sounds like a "let them have a couple bombs because we wronged them in 1953" excuse. No. They support Hezbollah, Hamas, and agitators in Afghanistan. They are an existential threat to Israel. They control militias in Iraq.

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          Narwhal

          No. I’m not saying we should allow them to obtain nuclear weapons. I’m asking for what purpose do they wish to acquire them?

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          1. Avatar photo
            George.Rozes

            To intimidate their neighbors, maintain their kleptocracy with the Guard, and threaten Israel, why else?

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    2. Avatar photo
      DougAz

      Let's just nuke em. Right?

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