Looking for New Voter Trends in the Old Dominion

Glenn Youngkin isn’t on the ballot, but the state’s midterms will be a referendum on his leadership.

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Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin speaks at the grand opening ceremony for Amazon HQ2 on June 15, 2023 in Arlington, Virginia. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Two months from today, voters in Virginia will decide control of the commonwealth’s narrowly divided House and Senate. Republicans control the 100-member lower chamber by four seats, while Democrats have a similar advantage in the 40-seat Senate.*

Both are very much up for grabs.

The race is rightly understood as a referendum on the leadership of Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin. A recent poll from Roanoke College shows the term-limited Youngkin to be popular even as Virginians decisively favor Democratic President Biden in a potential rematch with former President Donald Trump. He enjoys an 18-point favorability advantage over Trump and 5 points over Biden. 

More significant for November’s contest though, is Youngkin’s 7-point edge in job approval over the Virginia General Assembly. If the election really is a referendum on the governor, that’s a good augury for Republican chances.

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