Putin Should Be Careful What He Wishes For

He’s the primary driver of the Ukraine crisis. But driving events and having mastery over them are two very different things.

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Vladimir Putin announced Monday that he had decided to recognize two regions in eastern Ukraine as independent breakaway “republics” and immediately ordered Russian troops into those territories to carry out “peacekeeping” functions. A better term would be “tornaway republics,” since Putin has been waging war there for years. It remains to be seen whether this is the start of an all-out invasion of Ukraine.

Regardless, Putin should be careful what he wishes for.

In American foreign policy debates, “careful what you wish for” is a common refrain. Various realists, non-interventionists and isolationists championing “restraint” invoke it all the time. Citing Thomas Jefferson’s caution against “entangling alliances” and John Quincy Adams’ admonition against going abroad “seeking monsters to destroy,” opponents of an assertive U.S. foreign policy have been warning of “blowback” or “unintended consequences” for generations.

It’s great advice—and not just when it comes to foreign policy. What parent hasn’t said “be careful what you wish for”?

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  1. R. James

    Now that Russia has invaded Ukraine, the West should impose maximum sanctions, funnel defensive weapons to Ukraine and train its soldiers in guerilla tactics. Give Putin his Vietnam. It's time to bleed the Russian bear white on the spearpoint of Ukraine.

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    Show Jay Janney the 🚪!

    The lesson of Ukraine for other countries is simple
    Keeping the nukes and acting diplomatic better assures your future than just acting diplomatic.

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    1. R. James

      Or just keeping the nukes would've been sufficient too...man really should've kept those nukes.

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  3. Anna A

    My take (again) is that clearly the long-term effects will be disastrous for Russia. The West closed ranks. NATO is clearly and evidently not on the brink of obsolescence. Ukraine is not going to accept its fate as a Soviet-type pantry and piggy bank for Russia (and recall that they were originally, about 100 years ago, only broken into submission by violence and hunger; thankfully, it's 100 years later and things have changed). It will be bloody for both sides, and even if the psychopath doesn't care about death and suffering, the people in Russia will eventually get the news of their sons dying and get the photos of shelled kindergartens and maternity wards. The only way to keep order will be to further crack down on dissidents, which is massively resource consuming. The economy will further sink into massive recession, unemployment and poverty. Sure, Putin has cash reserves, but they won't last forever, and the largest sector is natural resources, for which you need markets and liquidity/banks. He will become increasingly dependent on China, and China will drop him like a hot potato the moment they don't consider him useful any more. All this makes me think that Putin is not concerned about any long-term success of Russia. Wouldn't be the first Russian dictator to think, after me, hell. It will be bloody, though.

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    1. Pohl

      I agree that China has the potential to be a spoiler for Putin as they are interested in burnishing their image as a responsible great power. Not too interested, mind you. But I think we could drive a wedge if given the opportunity. It should be part of our pivot to Asia. We don’t need to be worrying about Russia in the West and in the East.

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  4. CWB3

    Putin's vision of Russia must be crushed. His vision left 10s of millions of souls displaced, exiled, and in unmarked graves. Not again.

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    Earl King

    We signed an agreement with Britain, Russia and Ukraine in 1994 that guaranteed the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Do we keep our promises. At a minimum $650 million in military aid is a pittance. We have given them no defense against air attacks. No other major weapons systems That I can tell. We need to make it painful for Putin to break Russia’s agreement...Biden should have been arming Ukraine to the teeth...A deadline to pull his troops back or sanctions put in place. Move 50,000 NATO soldiers around Kaliningrad. Strength is all Putin understands.

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    1. R. James

      Yeah I bet Ukraine is really wishing they kept those nukes right about now. Nuclear Non-proliforation will be an even harder sell after this cautionary tale.

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        David Chen

        An 'international order' that won't protect small countries would inevitably lead to the perfectly rational (albeit horrifying) conclusion that small countries either nuke up or risk being rolled over by an aggressive big neighbor.

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    2. CWB3

      I agree, arm Ukraine to the teeth, and take Kaliningrad. Putin will get that message.

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      1. Pohl

        I don’t see NATO attacking Russia proper as a helpful move.

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        1. CWB3

          We are well past the ‘let’s be helpful’ stage. Take something Putin might actually care about and then let’s talk.

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      Earl King

      My god I have read some of the responses and I am flabbergasted at some of the takes. First of all lets put the blame on the current situation on Putin. Yes, Obama should have armed Ukraine but he didn’t want to poke the bear. Trump gave Ukraine some lethal aid but not enough and he has a funny way at looking at Putin. Obama wanted the reset...GW Bush “looked in to his eyes and his sole” what a load of garbage. Putin is a thug, a killer, ex KGB and if you read what he wrote....he is rectifying a historical mistake. He is on a mission from God or Lenin.
      Biden, not arming Ukraine and not hitting Putin with sanctions is just a list of stupid stuff we didn’t do....The critical error was in thinking Putin is a reasonable guy....So what is the big deal?
      The American Empire has certainly left many in the world with a good life. Our economic hegemony has also allowed allies to prosper and world to come back from WWII. Have we made Foreign Policy errors? You bet. In general unless you are of the Socialists Party stripe we generally believe in liberal democracy and capitalism. Both of those have taken many out of poverty all over the world.
      Our superior military strength has generally keep the world from another world war. We, along with Europe helped end genocide in the former Yugoslavia. Reagan broke the back of the Soviet Union allowing many to throw off the yoke of communism off. In short we killed off the Third Reich and Japanese Empire, the Soviet Empire and kept a few Koreans free. Our middle east policy has had mixed efforts. We’ve basically left South America and Central America alone and on their own...a poor mistake.
      We also helped China become a military and economic power. May be our biggest mistake.

      Here is the rub....allowing in more NATO members on Russias border produce the same reaction in Russia as it would with us. If Russia and Mexico created a military alliance...I doubt we’d like it. It doesn’t mean it wasn’t right to do, bring in the Baltics...but with that action we are now obligated to protect the Baltics....and we did say we would protect Ukrainian territory although we do not have a Treaty.

      Whether or not the American Empire continues depends of what we do...Re-trench and our influence and economic well being will decline....So if you want a little less money, influence, a slide to becoming Britain....than that is what you’ll get. If you like your Britain you can keep your Britain.

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      Narwhal

      Here is the document: https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/Part/volume-3007-I-52241.pdf

      Please quote from it where the USA and the UK guaranteed the territorial integrity of Ukraine if they were attacked/invaded. (The relevant section in English is around two pages long btw)

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        Earl King

        Yea its not difficult to read and understand. Territorial integrity. I can’t say it was a treaty as Congress didn’t ratify it....But it comes close to giving your word....How do you think we have done so far?

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          Narwhal

          Please quote from it where the USA and the UK guaranteed the territorial integrity of Ukraine if they were attacked/invaded.

          I agree it is not a treaty.

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      2. Pohl

        Yes, we famously gave Ukraine security “assurances.”

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          Narwhal

          Please quote from it where the USA and the UK guaranteed the territorial integrity of Ukraine if they were attacked/invaded.

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            Earl King

            Point #1. If you are committed to the sovereignty of someones borders in accord with Helsinki final act....You are committed to “do” something. Who is more committed. the chicken that laid the egg or the pig that gave up the bacon?

            That something is not spelled out except to go to the UN. We are doing something.....So it really comes down to this. You can help your neighbor by loaning him a ladder and say good luck trimming the tree or you help hold the ladder while he trims the tree. Meaning take an active part. Yes we could simply say here is $650 million worth of bullets and rifles. Good luck or we can hold the ladder which do you think we were obligated to do? I read more as doing all we can short of sending soldiers....If one is cynical you could say, hey we got them to give up the nukes...screw them...they are on their own...I guess it depends on what do think Americas intention was. Are we committed to Ukraine remaining an independent nation? I know we are unlikely to stop Putin if he want Ukraine then the Baltics...We don’t have force or the will to go to war with Russia...

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          2. Pohl

            No, I was agreeing that we never made guarantees.

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          Earl King

          yep...to secure Nuclear Missiles and bombs....IDK. Did we make a mistake? I remember Patricia Schroeder was on a flight with me to Denver or the west coast. I had a chance to chat with her.....I suggested that somebody better find some money to pay all those nuclear bomb scientist a salary with with collapse least they find employment elsewhere. I know a program like that did come in to existence....Doubtful I had anything to do with it...but somebody smarter than I did. Thank god....Imagine 1000’s of unemployed bomb makers....So at the time I think is was good thing to do....

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      David Chen

      https://www.dw.com/en/russia-ukraine-crisis-who-supplies-weapons-to-kyiv/a-60772390

      Sounds like we gave stingers at least.

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    Narwhal

    Jonah wrote, “We should do everything short of putting U.S. troops in Ukraine to deter Putin because an all-out invasion would be a humanitarian and geostrategic catastrophe.”

    Jonah, I assume you mean we shouldn’t put any NATO forces, whether on the the ground or in the air or at sea, in a direct, kinetic military confrontation with Russian forces. Correct?

    We had sent hundreds of troops to Ukraine to train Ukrainian forces on the use of the lethal aid we provided to them.

    “The Biden administration has made mistakes so far. It should have issued new sanctions the moment Putin started to amass troops on the Ukraine border.”

    I agree and I disagree. And so do others who know far more about such things than Jonah or I do.

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    rlritt

    Apparently Trump and his lacky Carlson are praising Putin's bold action against Ukraine.

    Here is Liz Cheney's take because she says it so much better than I could:

    <>>

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    1. Anna A

      I bet Russian Channel 1 has trump's quote plastered all over the news today to say, look, even an American president agrees that Putin is right.

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    Honest Ape

    Where are the video replays of Ukrainian figure skater Oksana Baiul performing to Russian composer Tchaikovsky's Swan Lake when the world really needs them?

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    Israel Bigelow

    "We should do everything short of putting U.S. troops in Ukraine to deter Putin because an all-out invasion would be a humanitarian and geostrategic catastrophe."

    That's the thing, I don't think we are. At the moment, it seems like the debate on what to do between the Dems and GOP is what level of sanctions to impose. Meanwhile, Putin already has Russian troops on the ground. If he was going to be persuaded by the threat of sanctions, I don't think we'd be in this situation right now. Putin's prepared for the possible of sanctions from the West by both suring up trade with non-Western countries and making sure Germany and Europe are dependent on Russia for natural gas. He's banking that Russia can withstand a block on trade but that Europe can't.

    If sanctions aren't enough to disuade Putin, then what is? Obviously, we don't want a war but if the West can't muster a stronger response that makes the consequences of one too much for Putin to bear, we will end up with one. I think for starters that means arming the Ukrainians to the teeth with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons and suring up our European allies with oil and natural gas but this should have already been done.

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    Dexember

    Typical commentators on here with boring, emotionally driven diatribes that are full of old rhetoric and partisan thinking that obviously solidified in these people's minds. Looking at you Pat Riot and Ed P.

    Jonah writes an essay with an informed opinion. Not an expert one, because as smart as he is, I think he'd admit he's not a foreign policy "expert". But an informed opinion. That's his job and why we are here.

    I don't think this is going to change the obvious emotional incentives people like Pat Riot get out of shouting hyperbole all over these comments with usually only a passing topical similarity to what Jonah wrote about. But we should just ignore the hyperbole instead of feed it attention.

    So...

    Jonah's point, that Putin will ultimately get unintended consequences for his decisions that hurt him may be true. But that hinges on the EU, Britain, and the US actually making decisions to enact those consequences.

    I would argue that we need to lean into the Autocracy vs Democracy mindset that would help realign our thinking away from the IOC and Olympics in Beijing or Russia (or World Cups in Qatar) and instead create a new Cold War between the Iran, Russia, China (and Venezuela) and the EU/Anglosphere/Japan.

    But this will go up against the dreams of those wanting international, worldwide organizations to be front and center and against the delusions of isolationists who just think America should quit and stay out of it (either because we're evil or because we waste money).

    The international order is being corrupted by Autocracies willing to pay bribes. Willing to steal and leech off the free and capitalistic order. We must kick them out and then time will show their command and control style to be a failure in the long run. We must not allow them to have both political and economic oppressions at home and the benefit of our marketing and research aboard.

    And the isolationists, of both stripes, do not understand the consequences of getting what they wish for. A world of "spheres of influence" will be a downgrade in the value of living of every American as more money is siphoned into inefficient bribes, tariffs, and reduced capacity. War will grow and we will inevitably be drawn back into these conflicts. The isolationists must be thwarted. Not all intervention is good, do not attempt a hyperbolic misunderstanding of what I'm saying. Actual isolationism is bad for America.

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      Ed P

      Its amazing you have the balls to call me out in a post that doesn’t respond to me … then essentially agree with mine in the last half unwittingly.

      “ The international order is being corrupted by Autocracies willing to pay bribes. Willing to steal and leech off the free and capitalistic order. We must kick them out and then time will show their command and control style to be a failure in the long run. We must not allow them to have both political and economic oppressions at home and the benefit of our marketing and research aboard.”

      Yes this is the stinking problem. The Kremlin infected the Republican Party and in doing so massively weakened the USA and I’m ANGRY about it. Between this and Bush’s unjust wars, this is what caused us to be so weak and divided. People are dying right now and it didn’t have to be this way. We squandered the world order.

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      1. Tigersrock

        dude you are insane. Go f yourself. hard and often You are an imbecile. is that calling you out in public. crazy is as crazy does.

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          Ed P

          I'm insane?

          Thanks Tigersrock. Where am I wrong?

          Feels pretty insane when I predicted disastrous consequences for all of these things, protested in respectful and peaceful fashion and was called a traitor for it by the same people calling me insane now for saying I told you so.

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          1. Tigersrock

            Hey Ed P, you are left wing loon conspiracy theorist. hell i predicted that joe Biden would be a terrible president. But that wasn't hard to do. So am I wrong. Go away you simple minded hate filled BS artist. bye now

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    2. Tigersrock

      Well stated.

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      Earl King

      Well said. Pat needs a high colonic and martini, 10 deep breaths and a come to Jesus moment understanding that not everything has to do with Trump. LOL

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      1. Tigersrock

        Thanks Earl I fight with Patty but he is not a tiger who will not change his striped. Republicans are to blame for everything. Any criticism of a Democrat is illegitimate.

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