Putin’s European Spy Games

As the West squeezes Russia over the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin intensifies its covert operations.

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For someone prone to publicity stunts such as riding shirtless on horseback and hugging sedated polar bears, Russian President Vladimir Putin spent a remarkable stretch of his early career blending into the background. 

He quietly rose through the ranks of the Soviet-era KGB and its Russian successor, the FSB, before pursuing a more public life in his mid-40s. But more than three decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the one-time “spymaster” leads Russia through the Cold War lens of paranoia, vigilance, and aggressive espionage.

And that’s where Ukraine hit Putin Monday: at the heart of Russia’s intelligence operations. In a massive data drop, the Ukrainian military intelligence service released the names, phone numbers, and passports of Russian spies operating in Europe on behalf of Putin’s former employer, the FSB. 

Within 24 hours of the list’s disclosure, Belgium’s foreign minister told 21 Russian diplomatic officials to leave the country within 15 days for alleged espionage. The Czech Republic, Ireland, and the Netherlands followed suit the same day, with the Dutch ordering 17 of their country’s 75 declared Russian diplomats to depart within two weeks. On Wednesday, Slovakia expelled 35 Russian officials—a large percentage of Moscow’s remaining diplomatic corps there.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    “ In a massive data drop, the Ukrainian military intelligence service released the names, phone numbers, and passports of Russian spies operating in Europe on behalf of Putin’s former employer, the FSB. ”

    I seriously wonder where they got that info. My suspicion is that we passed it to them.

    Fingers crossed the next dump names Tucker as being a Russian spy.

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    Wilhelm

    Wonderful piece! I haven't seen anything else remotely as comprehensive as this.

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    Bill Nelson

    Wonder what this is costing them. The bureaucracy has financial costs and is a general drag on society.

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    Pat Riot

    Surely Russia must be stunned at the success of these brazen attacks. They are profiting from the utter nihilism of Western politics and politicians (and their voters) who will gladly trade their nation's sovereignty for a better chance at winning an election.

    Now that women and children are being slaughtered before our eyes in Ukraine, *some* of them are having second thoughts.

    Others are banking on the Ukraine news cycle dying down in a few months, allowing them to resume their Kremlin-backed political campaigns without significant criticism.



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  5. Avatar photo
    Aylene Wright

    I am in a rather cynical mood today, but it occurs to me that if an FSB agent *really* wanted to accomplish something that might eventually redound to the benefit of Mother Russia, he or she would, paradoxically, try to undermine Zelenskyy by spreading a narrative that he was too soft on Russia.

    Yes, too soft.

    For at least per Twitter evidence, there are many Ukrainians who basically hate all Russians now. They easily believed, for example, that everyone at that MAGAesqye Putin rally actually enthusiastically supported him and the war, even though some reporting indicates many were just government employees who were "voluntold".

    They believe that the whole Ovsyannakova episode was staged by the FSB, because she didn't disappear, and recently gave an interview to some Italian reporter arguing *against* Russian sanctions. (Although a plausible alternative is that she always opposed the war more because of the fallout for *Russia* than actually caring about Ukraine). They also tend to dismiss Navalny as overall little better than Putin, because he won't commit to giving back Crimea.

    But Zelenskyy has tried to reach out directly to the Russian people, recently gave an interview to Russian journalists, and expressed sorrow and anger over how Putin treats his own soldiers. He's publicly contemplated major concessions including abandoning NATO and shelving the Crimea question for 15 years.

    So if I were a Russian disinformation officer, I would subtly suggest to Ukrainians that Zelenskyy is too soft on the Russians because he doesn't hate all Russians, and encourage Ukrainians to continue fighting, and to excuse any evidence of Ukrainians committing war crimes (evidence that I would manufacture if I can't find enough real examples) as the evil orcs (a term already popular among Twitter Ukrainians as a way to refer to Russians) getting a taste of their own medicine/ getting what they deserved. (I don't know if that video circulating of Ukrainians torturing Russia POWs is legit, but I can actually easily imagine some angry Ukrainians doing that kind of thing if they are convinced *all* Russians are evil orcs).

    I would hope this would turn some Ukrainians against Zelenskyy, and that the net effect of disrupting the current "rally around the flag" cohesion around him, and that would eventually help Russia's aims, even though it runs the risk of Zelenskyy actually being replaced by a leader who is much harsher. (A possibility Zelenskyy himself has raised as a way to nudge Russia to negotiate with him now to avoid that.)

    But if I was really a great secret agent I would actually cultivate a mole to become this "more anti-Russia than thou" leader, who would oust Zelenskyy, only to bend the knee to Russia himself. Think of how such a plan would totally destroy the Ukrainians trust in their government / leaders and demoralize them.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Ben Connelly

      Somehow I think you’ve thought through that whole thing a lot more than the FSB has.

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      MarqueG68

      It's a few days later, and the horrific war crimes perpetrated by retreating Russian forces in Bucha have come to light--something you wouldn't have known when you first posted.

      And here, the argument of those attempting to interpret the rationale among spooks and psy-ops warriors like Putin is that the atrocities are meant to scare off potential western supporters of Ukraine, as the sheer brutality that Russia is willing to apply is just overwhelming, and to be feared above all else.

      Not sure exactly what that would mean in terms of useful conclusions, other than trying to read too much into intentions just encourages uncertainty, confusion, and doubts about what's real and what's purposely constructed to manipulate. The world of mirrors within mirrors and all that.

      But at times you take a step back and wonder that it doesn't feel all that far removed from QAnon-type stuff.

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      EricRemcon@gmail

      This is an interesting and devious plan. 🧐 Insert a pseudo anti-Russian rabblerouser figure to call out Zelenzkyy as soft, then incite distrust and claims of corruption when he then folds to Russia.

      But don’t you think that is a little too complicated, even if ingenious. After all, Russia couldn’t even get Florida Man reelected! 😉😂

      Seriously though, nice post. Also, please make sure to remind yourself to never forward any of your ideas to Steve Bannon or Roger Stone, they might become dangerous.

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    4. Eeeeeruqek

      Brilliant. Please never use your powers for evil.

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