The GOP’s Hope for a Flipped Senate Script

As Senate Democrats face a tough map in 2024, Republicans recalibrate their strategy.

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Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell speaks to the media Wednesday inside the U.S. Capitol. (Photo by Nathan Howard/Getty Images)

Senate Democrats’ post-midterm adrenaline high is already starting to wane. 

Two days after Sen. Raphael Warnock won in Georgia—capping an election cycle in which every Democratic Senate incumbent won reelection—Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema announced last week she is leaving the Democratic Party to be an independent. Even though she will continue to align broadly with Democrats, the party will have to decide whether to support her reelection campaign.

One possible alternative for Democrats is Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego, who confirmed to The Dispatch Monday that his team has “been preparing for something like this” and that he will “make a decision” in 2023. He rebuffed the notion that a Democratic challenge to Sinema would split the vote in the GOP’s favor. 

“I think quite the opposite,” Gallego told reporters. “By her running, it guarantees a Democrat will win.”

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  1. BSamuel

    Gallagher needs to step up to fill the Sasse size hole in Jonah’s heart that Sasse left when he retired from the senate.

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      Ben Connelly

      And Remnant listeners need another half-baked drinking session.

      Actually, Sasse might have more time to come on podcasts in his new role.

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    Mike Shigley

    As a native Pennsylvanian, I wouldn't count on any Republican beating Bob Casey. The son has become as unbeatable as his father was.

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    1. Pfigdore

      They really think that McCormick has a chance. We saw how well McCormick did in a field of 7 and with our ridiculous winner take all primaries and an ineffectual (trying to be polite) state committee. And what happens if Trump somehow decides to put his imprimatur on a candidate (assuming he's around)? Will it be Oz or someone else. Just heard a radio interview with Kathy Barnett and she's angry at what happened in the primaries (outside money spreading lies etc.) and wouldn't discount her running. Casey's margins certainly seem unbeatable. But the man is an intellectual light weight. I don't think PA is as blue as Casey's margins of victory would suggest. But then I live in the "T".

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        Mike Shigley

        Casey does appear to be a light weight, but his name alone carries a lot of weight. Moreover, there are no signs yet that the Republican State Committee, like its national counterpart, has shown any signs of engagement and strong leadership.

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    The Bell Tower

    I’m not convinced that Sinema’s move helps Republicans. I think Warnock’s win gave Schumer breathing room to allow Sinema to box out progressives who would have tried to run a leftist kook who might win the primary and then lose the general. No way Chuck and Sinema weren’t discussing this before it happened.

    It shows Republican strength if they can avoid their own kook but Sinema’s move is a symptom, not the root. If right wing loons think Kari Lake can beat Sinema in an open election, they are smoking some good reefer.

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      Jeff Younger

      Hopefully Diane’s will kneecap any MAGA buffoons early on. Had Rick Scott done his job (which DOES include ensuring electable candidates prevail in the GOP primaries), the Senate would already be under GOP control. That’s 2 elections in a row that Trump gift wrapped a Senate majority for the Democrats. And somehow, his deranged boot-lickers persist in pushing their paranoid nonsense with candidates just as crazy as Trump. Normal Republicans need to get out and vote in the primaries to ensure Trump’s favored candidates lose in the primary rather than the general election.

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    Paul Britton

    Mitch Daniels is thinking about public office again! Great news. Easily my first choice as Republican candidate for the White House in 2024.

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      The Bell Tower

      This is like telling your children they’re going to Disney World. Don’t toy with me!

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        Paul Britton

        I know . . . .

        And I also know the chances of Mitch’s actually running for president are slim to none.

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    2. Raymondbrosterhous

      But according to the piece, he is looking at the Senate. I think he is a great candidate, but he's been out of the game long enough for a Senate bid (rather than the White House) to be reasonable.

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    Bill Nelson

    Nominate and support candidates that can intelligently annunciate solid positions, and avoid using the word “fight”. Also stay away from words like “compromise”, stick with persuade, as compromise equates to “progressive light” to many republican voters.

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    1. Very Old Grumpy Guy

      I hadn't thought about this, but I think you are right about the word "compromise". It may have the same connotation on the left, but Republicans almost always equate compromise with "abandoning my principles". How did we get here? Compromise is the only thing that works in a country as diverse as ours.

      It think it is obvious that "persuade" is not in the vocabulary of any main stream Republican (or Democrat) politician. It is a discredited tactic on the right, only pursued by nerds and squishy RINOs like those at The Dispatch. Both sides are fans of using the power of the state to impose their crazy views on us normies and crush their "enemies". But I think the Republicans are currently winning the race to impose the most egregious restrictions on those whose life choices do not affect them, but irritate them.

      No wonder we can't get normal people to pursue elected office.

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        Bill B

        For some time now “compromise” and “surrender” have been synonymous on the Right. Non-partisan has meant we get 100% of what we want and the other side is being partisan for not “compromising”. 😉

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    The History Nerd

    I think the lesson from the midterms is that voters don't like crazy. Nominate normal conservatives and the GOP wins. Nominate election deniers and auch and they lose. It's like the voters are the mom in the meme with the screaming kid, "why can't you just be normal?!"

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  7. BadgerBill

    It’s gonna be very tough to beat Tammy Baldwin is Wisconsin. While Mike Gallagher is a rational Republican, with little Trumpy aspects, Tammy Baldwin easily won re-election in 2018. He could be a rising star and young (38). His time may not be yet. We shall see.

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      Stephanie

      Maybe my recollection’s wrong, but wasn’t Gallagher pretty much an election denier? That seems like a problem.

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        Roger the Shrubber

        https://thehill.com/homenews/house/532440-coalition-of-7-conservative-house-republicans-says-they-wont-challenge/

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          Stephanie

          Thank you!

          I wondered why it stuck in my mind that he seemed compromised. So I looked at the Wikipedia entry. Looks like he voted against anything that would have held Trump accountable, including both impeachments, forming a bipartisan committee to investigate January 6, and against a vote to censure Trump for racist remarks.

          So to me, he has the stench of Trump on him and is seriously lacking a backbone. We need politicians with basic principles--nothing fancy--just support democracy and American values.

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      The History Nerd

      While I agree that Baldwin is a tough incumbent to beat, remember that 2024 is a presidential year, 2018 was a blue wave year, and that Wisconsin is a swing state and that the GOP is a well-oiled machine there. I mean, Ron Johnson won fairly comfortably this year, even while the GOP was struggling elsewhere. She is likely to have a tougher race this time around, even if I'd still probably put as tilting blue.

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        Bayesian

        RonJon won by 1% against a very hardcore wokester (whom the Ds chose to coronate). It's certainly a victory, but I would not call it "fairly comfortably".

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          O.W.L.

          Right. The Democrats in Wisconsin did what the Republicans did in the states that stayed blue--pick the candidate on the extreme wing of your party--the one guaranteed to turn off swing voters.
          What this election taught us I think is that at a statewide level, there are enough voters open to voting for the candidate, as opposed to the party, that you have to find somebody who isn't extreme. I really like Jon Tester and I think he could easily beat Mr. All Hat No Cattle Ryan Zinke.

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      This comment has been deleted

  8. Dennis.Trask.Z

    And who are the Trump candidates? Will there be a fresh crew? Or is a new crop planted? The sanity in this article will face challenges.

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      Jeff Younger

      Trump will always have some loyalists willing to carry the MAGA banner. It’s up to GOP primary voters to reject them as the losers they are. Every non-MAGA GOP primary candidate needs to remind voters that MAGA primary winners are almost always losers in November. It would help if Trump died, or was soundly thrashed in the primary.

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