The Senate Majority May Run Through Nevada

It’s one of the best Senate pickup opportunities for Republicans this midterm cycle.

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Less than five weeks until the midterm elections, election analysts at FiveThirtyEight and Sabato’s Crystal Ball consider only Nevada and Georgia true toss-ups among this year’s list of competitive Senate races. 

But Republican candidate Herschel Walker’s troubles in Georgia—he now stands accused of paying for a former girlfriend’s abortion, per a Daily Beast report published Monday—may bolster the conventional wisdom election analysts have held for months: the Senate majority could hinge on Nevada. If Republicans fail to capture the seat, for instance, they would likely need to win in Arizona, Pennsylvania, or even Georgia to tip the 50-50 Senate in their favor.

The race between Republican former Attorney General Adam Laxalt and incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is a dead heat, with several recent polls showing Laxalt with a narrow lead. But the contest hasn’t produced the dramatic news cycles that have characterized battleground Senate races in battleground states like Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, and Google searches for “Nevada Senate” have trailed those other states for months.

“The two candidates out in Nevada don’t have that same sort of inherent fascination to them,” said Boston College political scientist David Hopkins. “It’s an incredibly important race that could well be a decisive race in actual control of the Senate, and it is definitely under-covered.”

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Comments (8)
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  1. Ron Croxton

    Good luck with that.
    Here in Nevada our major elections are decided in Vegas where the cullinary union rules with an iron fist. Add to that how much of our economy is supply chain now: we KNOW what caused inflation because nearly all of us have a friend who can tell us all about container shipping rates and lead time for products from China.
    It would be absolutely shocking if Laxalt won.

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  2. Dan Crist

    "If Republicans fail to capture the seat, for instance, they would likely need to win in Arizona, Pennsylvania, or even Georgia to tip the 50-50 Senate in their favor."

    The Republicans are defending the (open) Pennsylvania seat, so they would likely need to win two of those races if they lose Nevada.

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    Paul Britton

    Excellent report.

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    KB

    I'm very confused how extreme right candidates are polling so well in purple states (NV, AZ, GA). Laxalt might seem less extreme but I consider anyone who clings to Trump and denies the election results as extreme.

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    Rajeev

    Nevada is the one western state that isn’t necessarily trending more blue. Cortez-Masto is a phenomenal senator and it would be a shame if she lost.

    Having 3/4 of the state’s population in a single county (Clark County) makes Nevada such an interesting state.

    I hadn’t realized how much of an election denier Laxalt was. It’s a shame because the GOP just had a great governor a few years ago in Brian Sandoval.

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  6. Safety Cone

    We decry and legally deny foreign money in a Presidential election. And I recall a certain candidate was lambasted just for appearing too cozy and benefitting from Russian "interference." But we allow money from out of state and out of district to enter Senatorial and Congressional races.

    Sure seems like Roberts would like an even bigger slice of the out of state Dem donors pie of money.

    Maybe the recent infusion of cash in Nevada race came from SEIU members scouring for nickels under the seat cushions.

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    Show Jay Janney the 🚪!

    At least Biden brought gas prices down to the mid $5 range, that oughta help.

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    Chris L

    At least both candidates are coming to the correct conclusion - elections are supposed to be comparatively boring and approachable, without the flashy inflammatory nonsense that is seemingly extant nowadays, despite too many people becoming addicted to the latter.

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