Three Dates That Will Shape Politics Through 2024

The Georgia runoff, the debt-ceiling vote, and the fate of Kevin McCarthy.

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House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

The coverage of the vote for House speaker set to take place in five weeks is beyond obsessive. But it’s easy to understand why.

Rep. Kevin McCarthy is a figure of something between contempt and disgust for almost all Democrats and some Republicans. The bipartisan consensus against McCarthy creates lots of appetite for stories about his desperate pandering, strategy around the vote, the disaster scenarios for the California Republican, and, most intriguing for the left, the possibility that the radical Republicans who are so enjoying torturing McCarthy could overplay their hand and end up tipping control of the gavel to a moderate.

The Republican House majority is probably going to end up being only five seats deep. The GOP has won in 220 districts, and leads—barely—in the last two contests that still aren’t called as of this writing. That means that McCarthy will only be able to afford, at most, four defections and still get the 218 votes he needs to become speaker when the new Congress convenes. Given the 31 MAGA members who sided against him in the internal party vote for leadership posts and their subsequent taunting, it’s impossible to see right now how McCarthy wins on the first ballot. For context, when Paul Ryan cruised to the speakership in 2015, nine out of 245 Republicans voted against him. The GOP caucus is much smaller and more radical than it was then.

Beyond the political interests of Democrats and pro-Trump Republicans like those in the House Freedom Caucus, there’s another reason that the first vote of the 118th Congress on January 3 is getting such excessive coverage: It’s just good copy. McCarthy is a Shakespearian figure. The gossipy details of his failed 2015 bid added intrigue, but it has been his Mark Antony-like contortions in pursuit of power that have made McCarthy such a figure of fascination. What becomes of a man whose need for power leads him to such self-abasement when he finally obtains what he has coveted? What would become of him if he failed again? 

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  1. Deleted Comment

    This comment has been deleted

  2. Avatar photo
    George.Skinner

    I don't know if it's actually politically possible, but the Democrats should use their lame duck time to eliminate the debt ceiling. If Congress approves the spending, Congress has implicitly required the borrowing for that spending. The idea that authorizing a separate debt ceiling provides any incentive to limit borrowing has been utterly discredited by experience. All the debt ceiling has accomplished is provide grounds for reckless political brinksmanship that accomplishes nothing useful and could eventually cause a global financial catastrophe. Take the heat, get rid of it, and do something useful for the country.

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    1. BadgerBill

      GS, I like the idea, but my guess is the Republicans in the Senate would filibuster it. It’s way more important to have an issue/stick to hit the other side than to actually govern appropriately. Unfortunate.

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    JohnF

    If McCarthy is a Shakespearian figure that figure is either Falstaff, Feste, or Nick Bottom.

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      Ben Connelly

      Ha, yeah. I think that’s what Stirewalt meant.

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  4. J. Everett Schubert

    We spent Thanksgiving at my in-laws', who live in Alabama near the Georgia line, in the Georgia media market. I saw multiple ads for Warnock, but can't recall seeing one for Walker. Give Warnock credit: He is running a good campaign. The TV ad with the beagle helps to tug at the heartstrings of suburban moms.

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    Jay

    If KM does indeed realize his fondest wish, how long does it even last? 12 months? less? Whatever the time he gets I doubt it will be as much as he wants.

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      Bel

      Or as satisfying as he imagined

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    David M

    Thanks Chris!

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    Linda Beggs

    I'm a Georgia voter who skipped the Senate box in the general election, being eager to add to the Kemp/Walker gap. I have to laugh when I get texts from the Walker campaign touting he's 'Kemp-backed.'

    I don't intend to vote in the runoff, which feels weird since I ALWAYS vote.
    If Trump shows up to campaign, I might reluctantly vote for Warnock to send a message: Trump is a loser.

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    1. Jfan

      My city once held a special election for mayor in which the office was the only one on the ballot. I concluded after attending a debate that none of the candidates was worthy of my vote. I voted and cast a blank ballot. You should do the same.

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        Wilhelm

        Although it depends on the voting machine and the Georgia election laws, simply opening up the write-in button and typing any letter works. So would the word "Neither."

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          Linda Beggs

          Good idea, but there are no write-ins on a runoff.

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      Bel

      Have you seen the Kemp TV ad for Walker? It's unbelievable. Not in some hyperbolic way; it's a quite conventional ad. I mean literally not believable. Kemp can't possibly believe Walker is Senate material.

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        Linda Beggs

        Yes. I’ve decided appreciating dark irony is the only way to keep my sanity.

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    3. CCA

      Apparently, we share a brain. Spot on.

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