To Bolster Deterrence, the U.S. Must Work With the Philippines

We left the country in the 1990s, but a new plan would not have to start from square one.

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President Joe Biden is right to be clear that the U.S. will defend Taiwan if the People’s Republic of China attacks it, notwithstanding his aides’ attempts to “walk back” his pledge. Presidential statements about U.S. intent to oppose China’s use of force provide the basis for a coalition to deter Beijing’s use of force. But statements are not enough.

A deterrent coalition needs to demonstrate that it can effectively defeat the Chinese military. This requires a build-up of U.S. military force in the region together with Japan and Australia as well moves to secure the use of allied bases. No country is geographically more important to such a coalition than the Philippines. But the alliance has been rocky since the U.S. military was forced to withdraw from the country in the early 1990s. The Biden administration needs to prioritize stabilizing ties with Manila, not an easy task with the new Marcos government. 

The U.S. was instrumental in ousting Ferdinand Marcos, a very popular policy in the Philippines at the time. But after the recent presidential victory of Ferdinand Sr.’s son, Ferdinand “BongBong” Marcos Jr., the family is back in power. The Marcoses are clearly not fond of the U.S., where they still face legal trouble. Meanwhile, Beijing cultivated the new Philippine government before it ascended to power. The Chinese invested in Davao City in Mindanao when Vice President Sara Duterte, daughter of outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte, was mayor.

Despite these obstacles, the U.S. has an opportunity to improve the Philippine alliance. It should develop a comprehensive “Plan Philippines” that leads with diplomacy and economic inducements. One of the plan’s main goals should be to re-establish U.S. bases. This would be a major victory for deterrence in Asia, as Washington’s chief geostrategic problem is the absence of permanent military access south of Okinawa. The Philippines, situated at the eastern edge of the South China Sea, is less than 800 miles away from Taiwan and 900 miles from China’s Hainan province, which is home to a Chinese naval base. It is no surprise, then, that most of the more innovative warfighting concepts offered by the Defense Department assume the use of the Philippines. Unless alliance relations are improved, this is a faulty assumption. 

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    The 13th largest population in the world! You learn something new every day. Alternatively, it just goes to show how little I know about the world. But I would have guessed a number of other countries that rank lower than the Philippines by population would be larger.

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    Andrew Hofmaier

    I'm an American, but grew up in the Philippines in the 80's and 90's. Establishing bases in the country would be a very difficult goal. Popular sentiment had turned heavily against the bases, and, let's be honest, a midshipman on shore leave is not a good ambassador for American power.

    Definitely concur on the trade provisions and improving relationships with the country. However, a permanent base structure would be difficult and not necessarily ideal. Consider instead expanding agreements for leave-behind capabilities, cooperative agreements and data sharing.

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    Paul Reichardt

    “One of the plan’s main goals should be to re-establish U.S. bases. “

    Didn’t they just tear up the visiting forces agreement during the Trump administration? Seems like they’re reluctant to even let us have some access to their existing bases, much less give us real-estate (and legal immunity for US service members) to open up our own military bases.

    Baby steps.

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      Clifford from WA

      IIRC President Duterte said he was tearing up the agreement only to backpedal later. While he was antagonistic toward the USA, easy majority of Filipinos in government - especially in foreign policy - are pro-America. Majority of Filipinos in general have a favorable opinion of Americans. Of course that doesn’t mean they’ll like the idea of permanent bases. I’d be much less sure of that

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      1. Avatar photo
        Paul Reichardt

        Yep, that’s what I remember. I think there were some kinds of COVID vaccine assurances and some subsidies offered for Dutarte to flip-flop on it.

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  4. R. James

    While ABO, Financial Aid and Trade are important, without a major investment in the Navy and Marine Corps, it will mean nothing. Real dollar investment in those services has gone down every year for years. China is already the largest navy in the world and they are quickly closing the gap on quality. Unless you want INDOPACOM to share the same fate as ABDACOM, a serious change needs to be made immediately.

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  5. Natty Bumpo

    This seems like an obvious mechanism to support our geostrategy in east Asia and the western Pacific. Anchored by Australia in the south and Japan in the north, The Philippines would provide a strong platform for military support in the region. The economic development of The Philippines would be highly beneficial to our economy as part of the alternative to reliance on Chinese industry.

    The US has a fraught relationship with The Philippines since acquiring them from Spain, through independence fighting against US colonial administration and post WWII military base operations. Even with these difficulties, the US and The Philippines have positive shared history and opportunities for very strong financial ties.

    I note that they are the 13th largest nation in terms of population with a vibrant industrial development. We need to recognize the challenges that Filipino leadership faces in leading a nation of many ethnicities, languages and a sizeable muslim minority. This is all compounded by the geography of the nation. Their answers may not align with the US way of doing things, but they do have a democratic form of government.

    We should prioritize the development of trade and enhancing our miliary ties, treating The Philippines as a serious partner.

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  6. Avatar photo
    Reading451

    No bases south of Okinawa? What about Guam? It’s farther out but in a major strategic location.

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    1. R. James

      Buy a map.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Reading451

        Guam is east of the Philippines but south of Okinawa. Thanks for the constructive conversation though, I appreciate it.

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        1. R. James

          How many nautical miles is Guam from the South China Sea? How many nautical miles is it from Taiwan? Is it an important base for a conflict west of Wake? Sure. Is it sufficient? No. I think Americans tend to greatly underestimate the time/distance problem and the vast geography of the Indo-pacific theater.

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            Reading451

            You are correct, but I never made any of those assertions relating to sufficiency or priority. I simply pointed out that the US does have bases in the "region" south of Okinawa. My comment was not meant to be prescriptive, only positive.

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  7. Avatar photo
    MatthewRobin

    I think Biden needs to drop the universal "Democracy vs Dictatorship" framing for a limited "Anti-China" framing. "Dem vs Dict" works in Europe, but not Asia.

    India, Vietnam, and The Philippines are vital to containing China but India is led by Hindu nationalist Modi, Vietnam is led by the Vietnamese Communist Party, and The Philippines are now led by the children of dictators.

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    1. R. James

      Weirdly enough the Vietnamese might be the most willing out of the three to ally with the US.

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      CVS

      Neither India nor the Philippines are dictatorships.

      You don’t have to be a big fan of Modi or Marcos (I’m not) to realize they still are, imperfect, but reasonably well functioning democracies. Particularly given the part of the world they inhabit.

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      1. Avatar photo
        MatthewRobin

        My point is that I do not want to waste precious political capital berating Asian countries because they do not practice western notions of human rights.

        It's hard to get The Philippines to allow us to base US forces in their country if we constantly wag our fingers and nag at them.

        India may have 3 aircraft carriers in the 2030's and I dream of selling them F35s for their carriers. I am willing to overlook a lot of human rights abuses if that allows us to sell them 5th generation fighter jets.

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