Will Iran Goad Hezbollah Into War with Israel?

An attack on the north could put the IDF in a multifront war against two Iran-backed terror organizations.

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Israeli Merkava tanks are positioned in the upper Galilee in northern Israel near the border with Lebanon on October 11, 2023. Israel appears to be readying for a possible ground invasion of Gaza, but faces the threat of a multi-front war after also coming under rocket attack from militant groups in neighbouring Lebanon and Syria. (Photo by Jalaa Marey/AFP/Getty Images)

On Wednesday, air raid sirens forced thousands in northern Israel into bomb shelters. It turned out to be a false alarm, but the fears were warranted. While Israel contends with Hamas to the south, any escalation in tensions between Israel and Lebanon-based Hezbollah all but guarantees the IDF would be fighting a multifront war against two Iran-backed terror organizations in the coming days and weeks. 

More than 1,200 Israelis have been killed by Iran-backed Hamas terrorists since Saturday, the bloodiest episode in Israel’s history. The Wall Street Journal reported—and the Washington Post confirmed—that the regime in Iran funded, trained, and equipped Hamas, reportedly approving this operation a week ago. There are now reports that Iran is pressuring Hezbollah to attack Israel from Lebanon, attempting to engage Israel in a multifront war against two parts of Iran’s terror network.

Hezbollah is the most formidable, claiming to have 100,000 fighters. While Israel believes the number is significantly lower, many Hezbollah fighters have been battle-hardened over the past decade fighting in Syria. It is also the most heavily armed nonstate actor in the world. Its arsenal of 150,000 rockets in southern Lebanon—most of which are buried under civilian infrastructure—includes hundreds of precision guided missiles (PGM’s) that can hit a target with an accuracy of within 10 meters.

According to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Iran provides $100 million annually to Hamas and $700 million to Hezbollah. Iran has convened Hamas and Hezbollah leaders repeatedly in the past year, resolving to increase cooperation to attack Israel. Given Iran’s huge investment and close ties with the Lebanese terror organization, it is unclear how long Hezbollah can resist Tehran’s call to fully engage in the ongoing war.

 In its Monday article breaking the news of Iranian involvement, the Wall Street Journal detailed how senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah claimed the terror groups had coordinated closely with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) since August to plan the attack. On Monday, Israel’s Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer said that Israel was under the “working assumption” that Iran was directly involved in the planning of the devastating attack. Even if Hezbollah does not move in and create a multifront war, Israel will have to contend with the group after it deals with Hamas, which shares the same playbook.

In 2018, Israel uncovered a Hezbollah plot in advanced stages to take siege of northern villages and towns and kidnap hostages—just like the events that unfolded in Israel’s south on Saturday. After witnessing the latest massacre, citizens of northern Israel will not sleep easy knowing that an equally determined and much more potent foe lies on the other side of the northern security fence.

Although Hamas proved to be cunning and destructive over the past three days—and can use hostages to cause Israelis unspeakable pain—the terror group does not represent an existential threat to Israel. It is an unsophisticated organization with limited capacity in an arena that is dominated by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). In the past 24 hours, the IDF has mobilized 300,000 reservists to the battlefield and is not looking for compromises with Hamas. It is hard to imagine a future in which Hamas survives the coming confrontation.

But Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal does present a significant strategic threat to Israel. Although the vast majority of the rockets are “dumb” rockets, without the precision capabilities of the PGMs, the sheer quantity of the terror group’s arsenal could overwhelm Israel’s missile defense systems. Hezbollah has rockets that can evade Israel’s Iron Dome, which has an interception rate of well above 95 percent. Even with that impressive interception rate, if thousands of rockets rapidly rain down on Israel, tens or even hundreds could get through causing extensive damage to Israel, a country the size of New Jersey. And that is without taking into account more advanced rockets in Hezbollah’s arsenal.

Details on how Hamas pulled off such an ambitious attack remain unclear. What is clear is that the IDF suffered a major intelligence failure and was caught completely off guard. There were more points of failure that followed. When the dust settles, there will doubtless be inquiries. Right now, most eyes are on Gaza as the IDF deals its response to Hamas and weighs an operation to bring back its hostages.

Given the escalation with Hezbollah over the past three days, culminating in a genuine scare on Wednesday, the IDF may conclude that it is necessary to deal a significant blow to Hezbollah sending a strong message to the regime in Tehran that—given its complicity—its entire terror network is fair game.

Click here for more coverage of the war in Israel.

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  1. Stewart Scruggs

    Can’t risk an attack from the north with 3-4 divisions stuck inside Gaza. Easier to go in than get out. Will Biden and USN protect flank? If not, preemptive strike may be necessary.
    How far back down the spider web is Bibi and US prepared to go? Should they end it here before Tehran has nukes? Will the Saudis stay on sidelines? Will the EU cover us with Turkey? Will NATO have our backs with Ukraine?
    The answers may portent a historic realignment that we are not currently able to manage with only 2/3 of our government functioning. Is Matt Gaetz’s ego really the fulcrum here in the end?
    Will the future of the Middle East be shaped by a used car salesman from Florida?
    God help us

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    1. Joe1776

      With so many open questions I don't see how anyone can even talk about domestic politics.

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      1. Stewart Scruggs

        I hear you, but this effort will need funding at some point and that can’t happen without a functioning House. No speaker means nothing gets done and November 17th is around the corner. A government shutdown helps no one, especially the Israelis.

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    Show Jay Janney the 🚪!

    I recall reading before Desert Storm, how the Iraqi army was battle tested, how strong they were, we'd be fighting on their home turf, etc. They folded so quickly it was a farce.

    Yes, they have rockets, but what is to stop Israel from blasting rocket sites in return?

    Netanyahu has warned Lebanon that attacking them will result in an Israeli invasion. So if Hezbollah wants to attack, fire them all at once, and hope it works. Otherwise there will be a new government in Lebanon.

    I suspect if Hezbollah doesn't attack in the new few days, they won't.

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    1. Pohl

      Rockets and missiles aren’t simply instruments of terror, though. It’s how Hezbollah deters and combats Israel. Most of the portable ones are just like the Qassams out of Gaza and not susceptible to air assault. But the sheer quantity and variety of Hezbollah’s arsenal are precisely for fighting Israel’s armed forces not lobbing over the border in a wasted effort to swamp the Iron Dome. They are for taking out tanks, bunkers, troops, etc.

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    Chris L

    The optimist in me (nominal as that is!) hopes that Saudi Arabia sees the Hamas attack as a bald-faced attempt to scuttle diplomatic normalization efforts with Israel, and so proceeds per the original plan. A Hezbollah incursion would then risk pulling Saudi Arabia into support of Israel in some form, as impossible to conceive as that would have been just five years ago. Iran may then be tempted to go after Saudi Arabia, but those two arch-enemies falling into a shooting war would be doom for both. ...so in the end, maybe Israel's northern border is comparatively safe.

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    James Joyce

    key question seems - if Iran was 'running' this operation, can they really backoff now? Possibly, if the carnage wrought far exceeds what they had hoped for and they are now wondering if they've gone too far and have exposed themselves to serious repercussions. But if brutality matched exactly what they had hoped for? Hard to see how they could now, on the edge of 'victory' as they insanely see it, turn back. Doesn't mean hezbollah has to now go along with it, because even they may be taken aback by what has happened and are 'rethinking' things.

    and of course if Iran made the atrocity possible but didn't specifically participate in the planning and execution of it, hard for me to see them being enthused with the idea of opening a second front, especially with the Ford carrier group sitting just offshore

    so how things play out now is all a question of how deep was Iran's involvement and how do the results match up with their evil desires

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  5. Rossknode

    Have to imagine if the IDF believes a Hezbollah attack is inevitable they will attack first and target as many of their rocket storage facilities as possible.

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