After Iowa

What to expect when you’re expecting a Trump primary landslide.

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367
Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event at the Hyatt Hotel on December 13, 2023, in Coralville, Iowa. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

If Ron DeSantis is the Ted Cruz of the 2024 Republican primary, Nikki Haley is the Marco Rubio.

That was Ed Kilgore’s thesis in a piece published last week in New York magazine. There’s a lot to it. Like Rubio, Haley was carried to major statewide office by the Tea Party wave of 2010. Like Rubio, Haley is nonwhite and young, confounding stereotypes about what Republican politicians look like. Like Rubio, Haley is conservative by instinct yet willing to make accommodations to Trumpy nationalism—except on foreign policy, where both remain staunchly hawkish. Like Rubio, Haley gained traction in presidential polling shortly before Iowa, tantalizing Reaganites with the possibility that she might slay the dragon.

Like Rubio, Haley has received the support of a prominent governor in an early primary state. In her case, that came Tuesday night in New Hampshire from Chris Sununu. In Rubio’s case, it came in South Carolina from, er, Nikki Haley.

Oh, and like Rubio, Haley is almost certainly going to be flattened by Trump when voting begins, and probably bounced out of the race in her home state’s primary, assuming she makes it that far.

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  1. Avatar photo
    EmmyCab

    “If you’re willing to vote for the governor of Florida, you are by definition comfortable with a dubious authoritarian as nominee. In a matter of weeks, DeSantis supporters will sound indistinguishable from Trump fanatics—possibly worse, even, to heal the rift and prove their worth to the tribe anew.”

    I’m wondering what this means for TD subscribers who, until he started sinking in the polls, were largely quite on board with DeSantis. Lol…

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    Kleboutillier

    I read Kevin Williamson's essay in the WSJ this morning. And then I read this. I tend to agree with both points of view, which are strikingly similar. The American voter, the GOP, and the Dems are all working to make this happen. The MAGA people are so excited to see the Godlike Mango Mussolini restored to his rightful place in the Oval Office; the GOP second string will fall in line and support The Donald with endorsement after endorsement; and the Dems are making it look very possible for Trump to win with both a weak Biden, and a campaign of exalting Trump to make him the nominee, much as they did with the many GOP senate and congressional races that they engineered in 2022 (I smell the law of unintended consequences creeping in).
    It is lining up that we are headed for such a political disaster in November 2024, the likes we have never seen in our lifetimes. There will be buyers remorse. And it will happen fast. Violence? Oh yeah. Trump may be constrained by checks and balances, but he's going to do everything he can to disrupt that Constitutional. I read these wishful thinking pieces by the likes of Charles C.W. Cooke that the 'system will hold'. Don't bet on it. Don't think it can absorb four more years of Trump and his chaos. We're drowning in wishful thinking on the right, the left and the center. America is buying an E ticket ride into insanity. But it seems this is all we want.

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    1. GettawayGal

      I agree with your take in the sense that, by indulging in “non-normie” behavior, Trump has established “permission” for other others to do the same - where it appears we differ is, in my view (and as I think a fair reading of history shows - for example, Gore/Clinton/Abrams election denialism - pursuing executive orders that clearly violate the law), this all started on the left and, the more Nick and others demonize Trump without pointing out the equally odious (and frightening) behavior of progressives and Biden (particularly in the free speech arena), the more likely it seems, to me, we are going to get a result that the other side will have difficulty accepting (be that Trump or Biden). Which is why I do not understand why more individuals are not joining me and rejecting both alternatives in favor of a unity ticket of a moderate Republican and Democrat, which I think is the only way to stop the insanity.

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  3. M L

    The further we go, the darker your humor gets. I’ll take my consolation prizes where I can get them.

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  4. Rblik

    "I'm convinced that any conservatives willing to cast a protest vote for Cheney have resolved not to support Trump in the fall"

    Really? Liz has a bestselling book out now....seems like a great platform to start a presidential campaign from. Hard to believe she's only appealing to Biden voters, given his terrible poll numbers. Anyway......I still think the courts will save us. MAGA hasn't won in court in forever, so I have a hard time believing Trump avoids prison given all his indictments. Courts are slow, but MAGA "bs and bluster" just can't win there.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Kizedek

      "Anyway......I still think the courts will save us. MAGA hasn't won in court in forever, so I have a hard time believing Trump avoids prison given all his indictments. Courts are slow, but MAGA "bs and bluster" just can't win there."

      One hopes so ...but, those wins haven't kept MAGA from thinking the courts are corrupt and stacked against them. They STILL think that there was plenty of good evidence that the election was stolen, but that the compromised and weaponised judicial system "*refused* to hear the evidence".

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    2. M L

      “Liz has a bestselling book out now....seems like a great platform to start a presidential campaign from.”

      Hi, welcome to 2023!

      We don’t read books here.

      “Hard to believe she's only appealing to Biden voters…”

      Yes: the specifc cadre of R voter willing to cross the aisle because they can’t get over their disgust with Trump. Even more specific: the ones not smart enough to realize that in taking their vote she is only increasing Trump’’s chances.

      Since I tend to think LC is smarter than that herself, I highly doubt she will run.

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    Delenda Est

    From the Anti-anti-Trump goblins at the National Review:

    "The American System Works, and It Will Work If Trump Wins Again"

    https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-american-system-works-and-it-will-work-if-trump-wins-again/

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    1. M L

      I don’t think that was intended as an endorsement.

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    2. Rblik

      I think we're supposed to be excited at the prospect of another 4 years of a madman not being able to break our great system. Oh joy.

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  6. Wes.Bridges

    The last couple of lines in KDW’s piece in the Wall Street Journal today….

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    1. Renicksmith

      They certainly caught me by surprise.

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  7. Nikitas Hatzimihail

    In other words, our best hope is librrtarians picking Vivek as their presidential nominee!

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    1. M L

      If a post liberal populist conspiracy monger is now considered “libertarian,” our political labels are truly well and broken.

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      1. Rblik

        Populists and libertarians are barely different Basically, pot smokers who like low taxes and think small democracies should fend for themselves when invaded by despots and the "deep state" controls us. Ron Paul just made it seem more high brow than Vivek. I suspect they have similar supporters

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      2. Nikitas Hatzimihail

        True... I should have used Libertarian with a capital L (and I do understand that some Libertarian state parties have been taken over by the likes of MAGA Wacos). Seriously, on libertarians, I stand with Jonah Goldberg's take. But the idea that the party of Ron Swanson may be a better fit for Jean-Ralphio gives me the creeps.

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  8. Avatar photo
    Brian Ruff

    The one belief on which I continue to hang my hat, and my hope, is this: a felony conviction is a powerful thing. So powerful, in my opinion, that it will scare the purple suburbs into supporting incumbency. Continued malaise versus unprecedented constitutional crisis is a terrible choice, but one that will be made by enough Americans to stop a second Trump term.

    Of course, as the WSJ wrote several weeks ago: if either political party finds the will and the mechanism to replace their front-runner, they will win decisively. Best of luck with that, America.

    One other belief: none of our sclerotic politics will change until America demands it. We're getting there. Here's hoping we can find our way to reform and not something darker.

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    1. CB76

      "We're getting there"

      I see no evidence of this at all.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Brian Ruff

        It's hard to see, but one item off the top of my head (it's Saturday morning; I'm lazy right now) is the clear erosion of trust in institutions across the board. Another "Boiling Frogs" data point is the ongoing stagnation/retrograde in real wages. Historically, that's often a cause for rapid change - though not always for the better.

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        1. Avatar photo
          Kizedek

          Right. I hope that disconnect startles people as well: You are hopeful on the one hand that a criminal conviction of Trump will have an impact. But, you note that many are distrustful of institutions, so it's a little touch and go.

          Hopefully the institutions will hold, though MAGA won't trust a guilty verdict (they have shown they already don't trust court verdicts: they think all the courts that failed to find for Trump over the stolen 2020 election are corrupt, and simply refused to hear all the "compelling evidence").

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  9. Gehringer

    I take issue with your characterization of reluctant Trump voters: "The most corrupt, unfit Republican is preferable to even the best Democrat, therefore nothing Trump does can justify withholding support from him in a general election." That's obviously a false premise; we're not facing even remotely the best Democrat. The choice we're facing is between the most corrupt, unfit Republican and the most corrupt, unfit Democrat (Bob Menendez notwithstanding). Just like in 2016, which is the only reason he won in the first place. It's enough to justify re-registering as an independent, for what good that does. (A pox on both their houses, and the nomination process they both rode in on.) Not good enough to justify voting for the aministration that remains in place with the figure head in chief and his pathetic side-kick, who'll most likely finish his term.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Kizedek

      "the most corrupt, unfit Democrat"

      Huh? Says Trump. So, suddenly Biden is more corrupt and unfit than Hillary Clinton? It's arguable that even she isn't as corrupt and unfit as Trump.

      "I take issue with your characterization of reluctant Trump voters: 'The most corrupt, unfit Republican is preferable to even the best Democrat, therefore nothing Trump does can justify withholding support from him in a general election.'"

      That characterisation simply shows that "reluctant Trump voters" are highly partisan, and it doesn't matter *who* the Democrat nominee is. The excuse will *always* be that he is worse than Trump, objectively the most corrupt and unfit Republican, no hypothetical needed. (Unless the GOP is putting up George Santos, but I don't think they are.)

      So, *the most corrupt and unfit* Republican candidate IS the reality; it's whom the GOP is putting forward. And he is objectively more corrupt and unfit than Biden. By all indications, most Republicans don't really care, as Nick suggests, whatever else comes out about Trump between now and then.

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    2. Marc Whipple

      What evidence is there of Joe Biden's corruption and unfitness for office?

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    3. CB76

      There is no viable Democratic candidate that you would like any better than Biden, once you had enough exposure to them and once you knew there was no other alternative.

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      1. Gehringer

        That's a little presumptious.

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        1. CB76

          It's based on 30 years of observing presidential elections. When is the last time there was a Democratic presidential nominee you would have felt comfortable voting for?

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          1. Gehringer

            I don't have to be comfortable with one of those idiots to vote for one of them over Trump. (I don't like them, but that's a pretty low bar to clear.) For starters, I'd be OK for now with someone who doesn't exude provocative weakness in a dangerous world and one who doesn't think it's a good idea to remake the military into a social experiment.

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  10. Avatar photo
    Gbr0wn

    NO! to BIDUMP 2024

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