How the 2024 Election Could Get Weird

Evaluating the prospect of viable, competitive third-party candidates.

By
78
Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at a Hispanic Heritage Month event at Wilshire Ebell Theatre on September 15, 2023, in Los Angeles, California.(Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Imagine walking into the voting booth on November 5 next year and scanning down the list of presidential candidates. There’s President Joe Biden, Democrat; Donald Trump, Republican. The Libertarian and Green parties likely will have their own candidates in your state. And you could spot a few other minor party candidates whose names you’ll have seen for the first time that day. So far, pretty normal.

Now imagine seeing additional names you recognize from their TV ads, campaign rallies, or perhaps from the presidential debates: Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.? A No Labels candidate such as Larry Hogan or Joe Manchin, or someone else with centrist credentials? 

It’s not just plausible but probable one or both of those lines will be on the ballot. And if you’re one of the 52 percent of registered voters who told Quinnipiac last month that they would like additional candidates to enter the race, you can imagine joining millions of Americans in voting for someone not named Biden or Trump. If today’s polling holds true for 11 months, they’d be two of the least popular candidates in recent memory—Biden with growing concerns about his advanced age and poor job approval, Trump with his numerous indictments and refusal to concede the 2020 election.

Now let’s imagine a harder-to-fathom scenario: With other candidates in the field, neither Trump nor Biden wins the 270 electoral votes for a majority. As outlined in the Constitution, election of the head of the executive branch would suddenly be in the hands of Congress, specifically the Congress elected next November. In the House, each state’s delegation would receive one vote to allocate among the top two or three performing candidates in the Electoral College. The Senate would choose, by majority vote, the vice president among the top two performing vice presidential candidates.

This content is available exclusively to Dispatch members
Try a membership for full access to every newsletter and all of The Dispatch. Support quality, fact-based journalism.
Start Your Free Trial
Already a paid member? Sign In
78
By
Comments (78)
Join The Dispatch to participate in the comments.
 
  1. Chipwatkins

    Sheesh! 2,773 words! And we'd have known just as much had we read only the last 62.

    Collapse
  2. Dmoelling

    I voted for Joe Lieberman in his last Senate race (which he won). He ran as an independent after he lost the democratic primary to a radical leftist. The Connecticut GOP endorsed him. That was one of the few times I had not voted for the GOP candidate (The others were against Donald Trump and libertarian). Joe Lieberman is one of the initiators of NO LABLES and he has some valid experience in this.

    The alternative is to vote for one of the two elderly criminals, either of which will be a lame duck. It will be interesting when those pins get pulled!

    Collapse
  3. Jfan

    Michael Warren errs when he refers to 1824 as "the last time a president was selected by the incoming members of the House of Representatives." Adams was selected by the incumbent members of the House, as the new House would not take office until March 4th, the same day as the presidential inauguration, a rule which continued until the 20th Amendment took effect in 1937.

    Collapse
  4. Jerrytalbo

    Another possibility if a third party candidate gets some votes to deprive any candidate of a majority in the electoral college, or if two candidates tie at 269, is that the House is equally divided by state delegations so that no candidate can win 26 state delegations. And if that isn’t scary enough, then what happens if the Senate splits 50 50 and no one can be elected Vice President?

    Collapse
    1. Jfan

      If the senate is divided equally, Kamala Harris can break the tie and elect herself vice president.

      Collapse
      1. Jerrytalbo

        That’s doubtful. The 12th Amendment says that in such a situation a majority of the whole number of Senators shall be necessary for a choice. But this is all uncharted territory.

        Collapse
        1. Jfan

          You're right!

          Collapse
  5. Avatar photo
    PaulH

    The No Labels movement seems to have the greatest chance of success since it is well organized and could pull in lots of moderates, disaffected Republicans and Democrats who are leery of Biden's age. But it needs a compelling candidate -- Liz Cheney (who I like and respect) is not that person. Larry Hogan might be.

    Collapse
    1. Avatar photo
      Kmregan7

      Larry Hogan on the ticket might actually induce me to vote third party
      Of course, I live in a deep red state so my vote doesn’t really count to swing an election…if it did I might take that into consideration (build still be tempting)

      Collapse
  6. Avatar photo
    BWG

    Colin Powell won three WA state electoral votes in the 2016 presidential election. Though he was a write-in, not a third party candidate, It shows how resistant voters were to pull the lever for Hillary or DJT. Metaphorically speaking since we’ve been all mail-in since a few years before that.

    Collapse
    1. Avatar photo
      PaulH

      He didn't exactly "win" those electoral votes. Clinton won the election in Washington but three of her electors chose to vote for Colin Powell.

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        BWG

        You're right, I stand corrected. They were faithless elector votes.

        Collapse
  7. Kevin M

    It should be pointed out that Perot didn't START until March of 1992, and that early deadlines like Utah's are routinely stuck down by federal courts since major party candidates don't have to be named until much later.

    Collapse
  8. Phillyex1

    And we thought hanging chads caused chaos. Wait until the clear popular vote winner has the election taken away by a House controlled by the other party.

    Collapse
  9. Avatar photo
    Mark Hunter

    I've only read the headline and I'm already laughing.

    Collapse
  10. Joe

    Having just skimmed through the No Labels manifesto, it reads like the political manifesto of a liberal Democrat circa 2001. Hard pass.

    Collapse
Load More